Using History to Predict the Winner of Superbowl XLIV

Superbowl XLIV: Using the past to predict the future

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The Superbowl is one of the most celebrated games in history and a history lesson is just what some handicapper’s need when trying to find an angle for betting on the big game.  I would not suggest the history of the game being used exclusively as a tool to handicap the big game but it should be looked at.

This year when the Saints and the Colts hit the field the posted total in the game will be the highest ever in the history of the Superbowl. So in a sense this game is making history. While this can be attributed to the way the game is played today and the athletic prowess of players today as compared to yesteryear it is interesting to note how totals fared of late. Four of the last five Superbowls have gone under the total and some of those games have featured some pretty explosive offenses. It is interesting what the Superbowl trends show for the side as well.

See the latest over/under line at Just bet.com!

When it comes to winning on the money line the favorites have led the way over the last decade. In the last 11 superbowl the favorite has won the game outright on the field eight times. It is interesting to note that those favorites were just 4-3-1 against the number in that same time frame. The other interesting factor is that one of those favorites that covered the number in that game was the Indianapolis Colts when they defeated the Bears in Miami in 2007.

Latest odds on the Colts on the moneyline can be found here!

History of the games can also show a trend that may help out in prop betting. For example when betting on who will win the MVP award there are some fascinating trends from the Superbowls of the past. In the last 23 games the hardware was taken home by an offensive player 20 times. The trend would stipulate that taking a defensive player is a long shot. The quarterback was awarded the MVP more than 50% of the time over that same time frame. This would include two out of the last three big games where the Manning family has won the award.

The Top Props betting for the Superbowl can be found here!

They say if you don’t know your history you are doomed to repeat it so looking back at the results of the game may help out along the way when trying to pick a winner. Here is a listing of the Superbowls with the closing lines, results and MVP.

Super Bowl Betting Results – Past Winners and Odds

Super Bowl	Date	Result	Winner’s Line	Total	MVP
XLIII	02/01/09	Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23	-6.5	46.5 Over	Santonio Holmes
XLII	02/03/08	New York Giants 17, New England 14	+12.5	54.5 Under	Eli Manning
XLI	02/04/07	Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17	-6.5	47 Under	Peyton Manning
XL	02/05/06	Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10	-4	47 Under	Hines Ward
XXXIX	02/06/05	New England 24, Philadelphia 21	-7	47 Under	Deion Branch
XXXVIII	02/01/04	New England 32, Carolina 29	-7	38 Over	Tom Brady
XXXVII	01/26/03	Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21	+3.5	44 Over	Dexter Jackson
XXXVI	02/03/02	New England 20, St. Louis 17	+14	53 Under	Tom Brady
XXXV	01/28/01	Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7	-3	33.5 Over	Ray Lewis
XXXIV	01/30/00	St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16	-7	48 Under	Kurt Warner
XXXIII	01/31/99	Denver 34, Atlanta 19	-7.5	51.5 Over	John Elway
XXXII	01/25/98	Denver 31, Green Bay 24	+11.5	49 Over	Terrell Davis
XXXI	01/26/97	Green Bay 35, New England 21	-14	49 Over	Desmond Howard
XXX	01/28/96	Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17	-13.5	52 Under	Larry Brown
XXIX	01/29/95	San Francisco 49, San Diego 26	-18	54 Over	Steve Young
XXVIII	01/30/94	Dallas 30, Buffalo 13	-10.5	50.5 Under	Emmitt Smith
XXVII	01/31/93	Dallas 52, Buffalo 17	-6	45 Over	Troy Aikman
XXVI	01/26/92	Washington 37, Buffalo 24	-7.5	49 Over	Mark Rypien
XXV	01/27/91	N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19	+6.5	40.5 Under	Ottis Anderson
XXIV	01/28/90	San Francisco 55, Denver 10	-11.5	47 Over	Joe Montana
XXIII	01/22/89	San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16	-7	47.5 Under	Jerry Rice
XXII	01/31/88	Washington 42, Denver 10	+3	47 Over	Doug Williams
XXI	01/25/87	N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20	-8.5	40.5 Over	Phil Simms
XX	01/26/86	Chicago 46, New England 10	-10	37 Over	Richard Dent
XIX	01/20/85	San Francisco 38, Miami 16	-3.5	53.5 Over	Joe Montana
XVIII	01/22/84	L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9	+3	48 Under	Marcus Allen
XVII	01/30/83	Washington 27, Miami 17	+3	36.5 Over	John Riggins
XVI	01/24/82	San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21	-1	48 Under	Joe Montana
XV	01/25/81	Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10	+3	37.5 Under	Jim Plunkett
XIV	01/20/80	Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19	-10.5	36 Over	Terry Bradshaw
XIII	01/21/79	Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31	-3.5	37 Over	Terry Bradshaw
XII	01/15/78	Dallas 27, Denver 10	-6	39 Under	Randy White, Harvey Martin
XI	01/09/77	Oakland 32, Minnesota 14	-4	38 Over	Fred Biletnikoff
X	01/18/76	Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17	-7	36 Over	Lynn Swann
IX	01/12/75	Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6	-3	33 Under	Franco Harris
VIII	01/13/74	Miami 24, Minnesota 7	-6.5	33 Under	Larry Csonka
VII	01/14/73	Miami 14, Washington 7	+2	33 Under	Jake Scott
VI	01/16/72	Dallas 24, Miami 3	-6	34 Under	Roger Staubach
V	01/17/71	Baltimore 16, Dallas 13	-2.5	36 Under	Chuck Howley
IV	01/11/70	Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7	+12	39 Under	Len Dawson
III	01/12/69	N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7	+18	40 Under	Joe Namath
II	01/14/68	Green Bay 33, Oakland 14	-13.5	43 Over	Bart Starr
I	01/15/67	Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10	-14	N/A	Bart Starr