Otherworldly Start in the Past, Carson Wentz and Eagles Face Harsh Reality
Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles have returned to earth.
Three turnover-free weeks into the 2016 NFL season, the Wentz-led Eagles offense had already scored 92 points, the team was 3-0 and the rookie quarterback had the league's fifth-highest rating among passers with three starts.
But coming out of their Week 4 bye, Wentz and the offense have gone cold. In back-to-back road losses to the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins, they've produced just two touchdowns and 29 total points. Wentz's passer rating has dropped by 11 points. And after being sacked just four times during those first three weeks, the No. 2 overall pick out of North Dakota State was taken down eight times by the Lions and Redskins.
TOP NEWS
NFL draft trade ideas for every pick
Fan-Voted NFL Mock Draft
.jpg?w=256 "Cowboys Schottenheimer Football")
Latest Cowboys, Browns Draft Rumors
What has happened? The Occam's razor explanation is that opposing defenses and defensive coordinators have gathered enough tape on Wentz to exploit him and his offense. No rookie quarterback in the last decade has started Week 1 with less preseason work under his belt than Wentz, who threw just 24 preseason passes before suffering a broken rib, and who had started about 30 games at quarterback in his competitive football life (high school, college, pro) prior to September.
He was an enigma early on, and the understandably underprepared Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers didn't know what to expect. Wentz's lack of experience worked to his advantage, and it helped that he and the Eagles were facing less than stellar defenses.
"I think a little bit has to do with, No. 1, there's more film out there for teams to take a look at you," Eagles head coach Doug Pederson admitted to reporters after Sunday's 27-20 loss to the Redskins.
During the first three weeks of the season, Wentz was pressured on only 24.3 percent of his dropbacks, which, according to Pro Football Focus, was the fourth-lowest rate in the league among qualified passers. But when pressured, his completion percentage was a mediocre 47.4.
Since then, he's been pressured 42 percent more frequently, with the 11th-highest pressure rate in the league over the last two weeks.
| Points/game | 30.7 | 14.5 |
| Passer rating | 103.8 | 92.8 |
| Sacks/game | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Pressure % | 24.3 | 34.4 |
| Pass play % | 55 | 62 |
Interestingly, Wentz still had strong numbers against the blitz during that three-week run to start the season, and thus the Lions and Redskins sent extra rushers at him just 13 total times the last two weeks. But they found ways to generate more pressure without sacrificing defenders, and Wentz paid the price.
Opposing coordinators might be aware that Wentz has consistently been holding on to the ball too long. Per PFF, during the last two weeks he's held on for 2.6 seconds or longer on 53.1 percent of his dropbacks, which is the fourth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks during that stretch.
When that's the case, you don't necessarily have to throw the kitchen sink at a guy. Instead, you can allow your edge-rushers to pin their ears back and leave extra guys in coverage while still getting pressure.
That's exactly what Washington—and to a lesser extent, Detroit—did.
"I think, No. 1, you change up the coverage a little bit," Redskins head coach Jay Gruden said in his postgame press conference in regard to that approach. "You play some man-to-man and cover his first and second progressions. If he tries to get off to his third, you have to get pressure on him. I think that's what happened."
Wentz took two coverage sacks late in Sunday's loss, and in both cases he spent far too long sitting in the pocket and waiting for his early reads to come open.
This shot comes four full seconds after the snap, on a play that led to a sack:
And this one came three seconds after the snap, on another killer sack:
"I've got to get the ball out," Wentz told the media afterward. "That's on me."
Of course, it didn't help that the offense was missing right tackle Lane Johnson against the Redskins.
Johnson, who on Sunday started serving a 10-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, was graded by PFF as the league's best right tackle during the first five weeks of the season. But against Washington, Johnson's replacement, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, got owned by Ryan Kerrigan and the Redskins pass rush.
During the first five weeks of the year, the Eagles offensive line was responsible for just four sacks and ranked third in the NFL with a PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating of 85.1. But on Sunday without Johnson and against a defense that recorded a far-from-jaw-dropping 11 sacks in its first five games, that line gave up five sacks and was graded by PFF as the league's least efficient pass-blocking unit.
As you can see on Washington's second sack during Philly's first drive of the game, the Redskins' rush was about quality rather than quantity:
It's the same deal on their next sack in the second quarter:
Per PFF, Wentz was pressured 13 times despite being blitzed on only five occasions.
Now, the receiving corps hasn't done Wentz a lot of favors of late, but they've still dropped just one pass the last two weeks. That's a stark contrast to the seven they dropped when he was rolling during those first three weeks of the season.
A lack of offensive balance thanks to early holes has also played a role. The Eagles have fallen behind 14-0 in the first half of each of their last two games, and top backs Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles have carried the ball a grand total of 29 times the last two weeks.
During the first three weeks of the season, the Eagles ran passing plays on 55 percent of their offensive snaps. But during these last two losses, they've done so 62 percent of the time. That makes it a lot easier for opposing defenders to cheat.
The more you throw, the more likely you are to be exposed. Wentz has sailed far too many of his passes. That's something rookies do, but it only finds its way under the microscope when they lose.
This is Wentz-centric, because that's how things go in 2016. While his play has fallen off a touch, the reality is the entire team has fallen short of expectations the last few weeks. Wentz's receivers have failed to make plays. His defense has put him in early holes. The line isn't the same without Johnson. And the Eagles have been penalized a league-high 9.8 times per game. The offense alone was penalized five times in the second half Sunday against Washington.
But Johnson won't be back until the end of December, and opposing defenses are only gaining more and more tape on Wentz and Doug Pederson's new-look offense. It'll likely get harder, not easier—especially when you consider who they've played and who they're about to play.
Despite shutting down Wentz and the Eagles, the Lions and Redskins both still rank in the bottom 12 in terms of total defense, as do the Steelers and Browns. They've yet to play a defense that ranks in the top 10 in terms of points or yards allowed per game.
That'll change in Week 7 when they take on a Minnesota Vikings team that ranks first in football with just 12.6 points allowed per game and has had two weeks to prepare for the matchup.
Beyond that it's the 5-1 Dallas Cowboys on the road, a tough New York Giants team away from home, the 4-2 Atlanta Falcons, the 4-1 Seattle Seahawks, a pair of 2015 playoff teams in the Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals, another matchup with the now 4-2 Redskins, a road matchup with the tough-to-beat-at-home Baltimore Ravens and two final games against the Giants and Cowboys.
They've already played the weakest teams on their schedule, their bye week is gone and they finish the season against 11 consecutive strong opponents.
It's obvious their opponents have adjusted in order to stop Wentz and Co. Now, the young quarterback and his peers have to counter. Otherwise the Philadelphia offense will remain stuck on earth for the rest of the season.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
.jpg?w=480 "Cowboys Schottenheimer Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Rams Ravens Football")
