If OKC Thunder Haven't Impressed Kevin Durant Enough to Stay, Nothing Will
The Oklahoma City Thunder better hope Kevin Durant appreciated the significance of smashing the 67-win San Antonio Spurs and pushing the 73-win Golden State Warriors to the brink of elimination. If a team flying that high—hitting a postseason level maybe a dozen other squads have ever reached—isn't enough to persuade him to stay, well...that's bad news for OKC.
Because the Thunder's avenues for improvement are exceptionally narrow this summer, and many of them are dead ends.
With $65.9 million of guaranteed salaries already on the books next year, Kevin Durant's maximum 2016-17 salary of nearly $26 million, per Kelly Scaletta of Today's Fastbreak, shoves OKC right up against the projected $92 million salary cap. That means the Thunder's only tools to attract free agents may be the mid-level exception or the taxpayer's mid-level exception. At approximately $5.6 and 3.5 million, respectively, those options aren't likely to secure meaningful new pieces.
| Kevin Durant | ??? |
| Russell Westbrook | $17.8 million |
| Enes Kanter | $17.1 million |
| Serge Ibaka | $12.3 million |
| Kyle Singler | $4.8 million |
| Nick Collison | $3.8 million |
| Steven Adams | $3.1 million |
| Cameron Payne | $2.1 million |
| Mitch McGary | $1.5 million |
| Andre Roberson | $2.2 million |
| Josh Huestis | $1.2 million |
| TOTAL | $65.9 million |
Even worse, using the full mid-level exception would hard-cap the Thunder at the tax apron. Larry Coon broke down why that's a tough spot to be in:
"In other words, when a team is below the apron and uses its Bi-Annual exception, receives a player who is signed-and-traded, or uses its Mid-Level exception to sign a player to a contract larger than the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception allows, the team becomes hard-capped at the apron for the remainder of that season. This eliminates any potential loophole where a team could first use one of these exceptions and subsequently add salary to go above the apron, since adding salary first and then using the exception would be illegal.
If a team is hard-capped, it cannot exceed the apron under any circumstance.
"
Think of it more simply like this: That's where the Los Angeles Clippers were last year, and it prevented them from doing anything but adding bit players on minimum deals.
Despite the lack of flexibility, the Thunder's first move should be consulting with Durant, gauging whether his continued presence depends on personnel changes. If it does, OKC's path forward will require some combination of cap gymnastics, fervent prayer and serious luck.
Outside Help
The Thunder, like just about everyone, could use another shooter. Their frontcourt is deep, young and versatile with Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, Serge Ibaka and Durant logging heavy, productive minutes. Andre Roberson also proved he could be effective as an undersized power forward during the playoffs, so OKC's search for help has to be in the backcourt.
The problem is, the Thunder clearly aren't comfortable with one-dimensional gunners. If they were, Anthony Morrow (the 11th-most accurate three-point shooter of all time) would have gotten more than 13.6 minutes per game off the bench during the regular season. And he also wouldn't have been excised from the rotation entirely as the playoffs wore on.
But as you'd expect, wing shooters who can also play defense don't come cheap.
Perhaps Jerryd Bayless, an unrestricted free agent who made $3 million last year, would be an option. Considering Randy Foye is also a free agent whom the Thunder might like to replace, Bayless' ability to handle the ball could add to his value. Or maybe they could take a flier on Alan Anderson after a disastrous year with the Washington Wizards, though his $4 million salary from last season suggests it'll take more than the taxpayer's MLE to get him.
Underwhelmed yet?
OKC could free up slightly more money by letting Morrow walk. His $3.49 million salary is not guaranteed next year, and that cash could make a difference. But letting a player with historically potent shooting skill get away—especially when he makes next to nothing—would be a major gamble. There's no guarantee the Thunder could replace him with the vacated money.
Though it doesn't exactly qualify as outside help, bringing over 2013 second-round draft pick Alex Abrines from Spain could bolster OKC's backcourt depth.
The 6'6" guard just received the Euroleague's Rising Star Trophy as a 22-year-old, which seemingly bodes well for his NBA future. As Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman noted, Nikola Mirotic, Ricky Rubio and Danilo Gallinari are among past winners.
It'll take a buyout to get Abrines out of his contract with Barcelona, and the Thunder would then have to use either the MLE or the taxpayer's MLE to sign him, all but eliminating the possibility of adding anyone else through free agency. That might not be worth it for a team with a win-now window, but if Durant wants new blood, it may have to come from overseas.
In-House Business
In addition to looking for ways to add talent, the Thunder must also satisfy Durant by keeping what they have.
Dion Waiters is a restricted free agent, and after morphing into a more defensively engaged, offensively controlled contributor in the postseason, his services will be in higher demand than ever. Fortunately for the Thunder, Waiters likes where he's at, per Slater:
Since we're assuming Durant's return, Waiters' next contract will push the Thunder over the cap. The only question is: How far?
An eight-figure salary is basically assumed at this point. Given the rising cap and the growth Waiters displayed in the postseason, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see another team offer as much as $16 million per year. It'll hurt, but if the Thunder want to keep Durant happy, they must dive into punitive-payment territory to retain Waiters because, as is the case with virtually all of OKC's current talent, the team doesn't have the financial flexibility to replace him from the outside.
Don't forget extensions for Roberson and Adams.
Both can agree to new deals before October 31, and locking them up as early as possible could send a message to KD that the Thunder are serious about contending for as long as possible. Both will command significantly more than their cap holds, however (Adams' will be $7.85 million in 2017; Roberson's will be $5.45 million).
So if they agree to extensions, OKC can probably kiss any significant options in next summer's free-agent market goodbye, as both Russell Westbrook's and Serge Ibaka's contracts are up after the 2016-17 season as well.
Oklahoma City can exceed the cap to retain its own free agents, but extending Adams and Roberson (while it might appease Durant) would mean paying huge tax consequences after handing out new deals to Westbrook and Ibaka down the line.
Still, if the alternative is losing Durant this summer, it's probably best to worry about 2017 in 2017.
A Little Perspective
None of the above options will wow Durant. The alternatives—waiving and stretching players, seeking trades for Kanter or Ibaka, wacky sign-and-trade scenarios that may not improve the roster—would probably do something much worse: threaten the chemistry and integrity of a team that was historically good when it mattered.
The Thunder should trust in Durant's intelligence. They should have faith in his ability to see just how good his team already is and, considering its youth, how much better it can become. We haven't even touched on the possible growth of guys like Cameron Payne and Mitch McGary.
Kanter and Adams are in their early 20s, too.
All we and Durant know about OKC's roster is that it did beat one of the best teams ever in the playoffs and probably should have beaten a second. Golden State's ongoing dominance against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals only magnifies Oklahoma City's incomprehensibly high level of play in the conference finals.
Considering the full scope of what this season taught us about the Thunder, and factoring in the massive risks and financial realities of chasing outside talent, OKC should bank on Durant believing in the group he's already playing with.
If going up 3-1 against Golden State after demolishing the Spurs wasn't enough to convince Durant to stay, the Thunder never had a chance to keep him anyway.
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All salary information courtesy of Basketball Insiders unless otherwise indicated.
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