
Do San Antonio Spurs or Los Angeles Clippers Have the Edge Entering Huge Game 7?
Hopefully you're in the mood for more of the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, because that's exactly what's on the menu.
Trailing the Spurs 3-2 and facing the prospect of their second first-round exit in three years, the Clippers pushed back in Game 6 Thursday night, grinding their way toward a 102-96 victory and surviving long enough to stage another fight.
We just don't know which of these two teams has the edge for that fight.
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Game 6 offered no definitive clarity. Neither the Clippers nor Spurs led by more than 10 points, and the outcome remained in doubt until the very end.
It was a head-to-head battle reminiscent of Game 2. And Game 4. And Game 5. The Clippers kept trying to put the Spurs away, but they wouldn't go quietly. Concurrently, the Spurs repeatedly tried clawing their way back, only to be thwarted by a momentum-seizing shot by Chris Paul, J.J. Redick or Blake Griffin.
This, for the record, doesn't do us any good when looking at Game 7.
Part of you should want to roll with the Clippers. They're working off a victory, and recency bias is real. You should want to believe the momentum is shifting in their favor.
Griffin went for 26 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and four blocks, a stat line only four others have posted during a playoff game since 1986: Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Ralph Sampson. That has to count for something.
Paul tallied 19 points, 15 assists and four steals while committing one turnover. That's happened just one other time in the playoffs over the last 30 years. That should count for something as well.
So, too, should home-court advantage. The Clippers are heading back to Staples Center, preparing to play on their own turf, in front of their own fans. And, historically, that does matter, as the folks over at TNT astutely point out:
Not to be overlooked is the Spurs' success on the road thus far. Two of their three victories in this series have come at Staples Center.
Yes, that's impressive. But the Clippers won more than 73 percent of their home games during the regular season (30-11). Are they really about to go 1-3 when it matters most?
You look at these things and digest these facts, and the case for the Clippers as Game 7 favorites begins to take shape. But then you look at the way in which they won Game 6 and doubt begins to seep in: The Clippers forced a Game 7 in spite of themselves.
It took superhuman performances from four of their five starters—DeAndre Jordan, Redick, Paul and Griffin—to save their season. There was no consistent help from the bench, not even from Jamal Crawford, whose 4-of-9 showing from the floor actually puts most of his previous performances in this series to shame.
Not that the Clippers' second-unit woes are on Crawford alone. His struggles are just an extension of the entire bench, which was absolutely pummeled by the Spurs' second-stringers in Game 6, per ESPN Stats & and Information:
This is on top of what was already a triple-digit deficit through the first five games. The Spurs' bench has now outscored the Clippers' bench 308-168 for the series.
That 140-point deficit is visibly affecting how Doc Rivers coaches the Clippers. Spencer Hawes and Dahntay Jones played a combined 25 seconds in Game 6. Hedo Turkoglu didn't even crack five minutes.
Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford were the only bench players to eclipse the 10-minute plateau—though Glen Davis would have joined them, had he not exited with a left ankle injury.

Still, Rivers can only stretch his rotation eight deep on a great night and seven deep on a normal night, forcing him to rely heavily on his starters. Paul has logged at least 40 minutes in each of the last two contests, including more than 44 in Game 6. Griffin has now reached the 41-minute benchmark in back-to-back tilts.
Depending on so few players is dangerous. It leads to fatigue, which opens the floodgates for late-game mistakes, as we saw in Game 2, when Griffin coughed up the rock on a crucial possession. The symptoms of exhaustion didn't stop at the one turnover, either.
As Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding recounted afterward:
"Griffin could be seen stooped over at the waist, hands on his knees, at every break in the action in the final minutes. His fatigue contributed to various other mistakes, including Duncan stealing the ball on one possession and disrupting a rebound on another. Griffin didn't even move to challenge on defense as Boris Diaw sank a key corner three-pointer (with Duncan hustling down the court and past both Griffin and Jordan for the tip-in if Diaw had missed).
"
All of this is before we even consider the Spurs. They played poorly in Game 6, something Gregg Popovich was quick to point out, per the Orange Country Register's Dan Woike:
Yet somehow, some way, they did stay in the game, cutting the Clippers' lead to the three inside 30 seconds to play.
That's the luxury of having a productive bench.

Marco Belinelli (23 points) and Boris Diaw (17 points, five assists), helped keep the Spurs close while Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Danny Green combined to shoot 10-of-36 from the floor.
Hell, even in a loss, the Spurs still managed to "beat" the Clippers, as ESPN.com's J.A. Adande observes:
Again, this is with the Spurs being handicapped by poor performances from three of their most important players. And you can't assume Parker, Leonard and Green will all play that badly two games in a row.
At least one of them has to improve for Game 7, making the Spurs that much more dangerous. And make no mistake, they are dangerous—especially on the heels of losses, as we saw in Games 2 and 5, and as Bleacher Report's Michael Pina describes now:
Even though this series is tied, and even though the Spurs have lost winnable games at home, they look like the team that's best suited to make a deep playoff run. They look like the better team in this series. And here's a dirty little secret ahead of Saturday's Game 7: During the playoffs, with seasons on the line and championship pushes at stake, it's the better team that usually prevails.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.


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