San Francisco 49ers: Comparing the NFL's Head Coaching Vacancies

It’s easy to forget sometimes, if you only follow local sports news, that the San Francisco 49ers are not the only team looking for a head coach.  The Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons are also knee-deep in head coaching searches, and many of them are looking at exactly the same names the 49ers are looking at.

Take, for example, Mary Kay Cabot of the Northeast Ohio Media Group (via Sports Illustrated) reported that three teams are interested in a Mike Shanahan and Kyle Shanahan package as their head coach and offensive coordinator.  The 49ers are going up against the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders in an attempt to lure the Shana-clan to their franchise. 

Seattle’s defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, is reportedly being looked at by Atlanta, Buffalo, New York and San Francisco, reports Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports (h/t Pro Football Talk).  Broncos’ offensive coordinator Adam Gase has been linked to every job but Oakland’s, per PFT's Michael David Smith. The list goes on.

The only candidates the 49ers have an undeniable advantage with are the internal candidates, Vic Fangio and Jim Tomsula.  If they want to get anyone else, they’re going to have to convince them that San Francisco is the best of the six openings.

What does San Francisco have to offer that the other teams don’t?  Let’s take a look at six key areas—the quarterbacks, the overall talent level, the young building blocks, the front office and management situation, the strength of competition in the division and the overall salary-cap health of the team.

Quarterback

David Goldman/Associated Press

It’s undeniable that Colin Kaepernick took a step back in his development in 2014, putting up his worst season to date.  For the first time in his career, Kaepernick threw double-digit interceptions.  His yards-per-attempt number dropped, he posted his worst quarterback rating over a full season and he took far more sacks than are justifiable. 

That’s not all on his offensive line, either—Kaepernick’s average sack came 3.72 seconds after the snap, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the fourth-longest time in the league.  There are clearly some issues getting the ball out of his hands that need to be addressed.

All that being said, however, you can see why some head coaches would be chomping at the big to work with Kaepernick.  He was a very solid quarterback in 2013, and even in his worst moments this season, he still showed some incredible ability with his legs and mobility.  He’ll also only be turning 28 next season, so he’s still developing as a player.

The only team you can definitively say has a better quarterback option than the 49ers do right now is the Falcons.  Matt Ryan is a multiple-time Pro Bowler and is definitely in the top half of quarterbacks league-wide.  You could make an argument he’s in the top five, where Pro Football Focus graded him this season (subscription required). 

Ryan’s only two years older than Kaepernick as well, so it’s not like the new head coach is inheriting an aging veteran.  If I’m a head coaching candidate, and the only thing I care about is the quarterback, I’m picking the Falcons.

The only other team you could argue is in the same range, quarterback-wise, as the 49ers is the Chicago Bears.  Yes, Jay Cutler had a horrible season this year, but let’s be honest—Kaepernick wasn’t all that great, either.  

Cutler’s a former Pro Bowler who has shown he has what it takes to win in the NFL, and he has a much better career resume than Kaepernick has.  In addition, Mike Shanahan is the one who drafted Cutler originally, so that might give the Bears a leg up in his mind.  Personally, I’d prefer Kaepernick’s ability with his legs over Cutler’s experience, but I can see the argument either way.

A rung below the 49ers and Bears, you have the Raiders and Bills, both of whom have young, highly drafted quarterbacks in David Carr and EJ Manuel. 

Neither has had any great success in the league yet, but they have shown flashes—see Manuel’s first career game against New England or Carr’s game against the 49ers, for instance.  Carr probably has the edge, seeing how Manuel was benched this season for Kyle Orton, but both players are young enough that their potential still intrigues.

Bottom of the heap is the New York Jets, where the Geno Smith experiment has crashed and burned.  He’s from the same draft class as Manuel, but where Manuel hasn’t proven he can succeed in the NFL yet, I think Smith’s proven that he cannot succeed in the NFL.  The first order of business for the Jets will be fixing their quarterback, putting them at the bottom of this list.

49ers Verdict: Above Average

Overall Talent

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The 49ers have the best free agent of any of the six teams in Mike Iupati.  Even potentially losing one of the top run-blocking guards in football, however, the 49ers easily have the most talented roster of all six teams—a legacy of a squad that made three NFC Championships in a row.

The trio of NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis is the best trio of linebackers in football, all of them among the best at their positions.  If the next coach can convince Justin Smith to return for another season, that’s a huge boost—he’s still playing at an elite level as well. 

Antoine Bethea played at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, and Chris Borland was an amazing find as a rookie.  The offense is much less talented, but it has some pieces for a powerful running game with Joe Staley, Alex Boone and Bruce Miller.  If Anquan Boldin comes back, that’s a key receiving piece.  This is easily the most talented of the six teams.

After that, you have two very one-sided teams in the Bears and Bills.  The Bills boasted a top-five defense this season, behind players such as Kyle and Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus.  The offense needs a little work, though Sammy Watkins is an interesting piece, but the Bills have a strong defensive foundation. 

The opposite is true for the Bears—with Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett all signed through next season, no open head coaching team has more weapons at its disposal.  They’re not as complete as the 49ers are, but they have something they’re good at, which is a significant positive.

After that, there’s a significant drop-off, and I might argue it’s the Jets with the most talent in place.  With Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson coming off the edges, it’s hard to find a better set of defensive ends in all of football.  The talent drops off quickly after them, though the receiving pair of Percy Harvin and Eric Decker is an intriguing one.

The Falcons have two top-flight players—Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.  Ryan doesn’t count here, because we already looked at him in the quarterback section, and there’s not a great deal to get super excited about here beyond that.  Steven Jackson might have something left in the tank, and Jon Asamoah and Justin Blalock are a solid set of guards, but there’s a lot of work to be done here.

Finally, you have the Oakland Raiders.  There are some promising names here, especially on defense—Khalil Mack, Tyvon Branch and Justin Tuck, to name just three—but no superstars.  This is a team that didn’t win its first game until Week 12, and while I don’t think they’re the worst team in football, I think they’re the least talented from top to bottom in this set of six.

49ers Verdict: Unsurpassed

Young Building Blocks

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

It’s true that the 49ers aren’t exactly spring chickens; with an average opening-day age of 26.36, they were the 22nd-oldest team in the NFL.  However, look at that list again—they finished ahead of the Raiders, Bears, and Falcons.  The 49ers are actually on the younger end of this particular set of teams.

Because they’re not competing with the Dallas Cowboys, for instance, the 49ers actually look quite good when it comes to talented young players.  NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith will still be under 30 years old next season, as will Chris Borland and Aaron Lynch, so it looks like the linebacking corps will be in good hands for years to come. 

On offense, Bruce Miller and Alex Boone will continue to pave the way forward for running backs for years to come—and remember, the 49ers took Carlos Hyde in last year’s draft, so they have some youth back there, as well.  Kaepernick is also under the 30-year mark.

I’d put the Bears just behind them, because Jeffery and Bennett are two great weapons that still have their best years in front of them.  Matt Slauson and Kyle Long look like two long-term pieces on the offensive line, as well.  I’d love it if some of their draft class had performed better in 2014, but overall, the Bears are in good shape in the long term.

The Jets and Bills sort of fall in the same range after the 49ers and Bears.  The Bills get penalized for having no first-round pick this year, but at least Watkins looks like the real deal.  

Dareus, Kiko Alonso and Stephon Gilmore also bode well for the continued success of the Bills defense in years to come.  The Jets’ duo of Wilkerson and Richardson looks set to terrorize offensive lines for years, while Harvin and Decker are also still very much in their prime as receivers.  I am also a big fan of the Jets' first-round draft pick, Calvin Pryor.

Not so rosy are the Atlanta Falcons.  Julio Jones is their only stud under 30 years old, and after that, you’re raving about players such as Desmond Trufant  and Tyson Jackson—very solid pieces, but nothing that’s going to sell you on an elite defense for the next five years.  I also think Jake Matthews, their 2014 first-round pick, had a horrible season, which hurts.

Dead last are the Oakland Raiders, who were the oldest team coming into this season.  When you’re the oldest team and probably the least talented in the group, you’re not going to have a ton of young players ready to contribute. 

That being said, I do think they had some successes in the 2014 draft—Khalil Mack was a knockout in the first round, and Gabe Jackson was a steal in the third round.  Add that to last year’s third-round pick, Sio Moore, and you’re beginning to replace the talent drain that was the result of years of draft mismanagement.  There’s still a lot more work to be done, however.

The 49ers are no one’s idea of a spring chicken, but this is a low-level field here.  The presence of that linebacking corps is enough to make them the top youth option here.

49ers Verdict: Top of a Weak Group

Front Office

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Yet again, the 49ers come out on top here—as long as the head coach doesn’t mind the power being very, very much in the hands of GM Trent Baalke.  Pushing out Jim Harbaugh was a disastrous move, but now it’s clear—the roster is under Baalke’s complete control.

We’ve already established what a great roster it is, and Baalke and the front office have put together some great moves over the past few years. 

Trading a sixth-round pick for Anquan Boldin is probably the 49ers' best piece of work, but they also crafted a very team-friendly deal for Kaepernick, managed to bring in Antoine Bethea to replace Donte Whitner and drafted players such as Eric Reid and Aldon Smith.  The 2012 draft was a swing and a miss, but this has been a very solid front office overall.

Compare that to a situation like the Bears, who have just fired their general manager, Phil Emery.  This makes them a bit more enticing for someone like Mike Shanahan, who wants personnel control, but it also means there’s not really an established team architect in place. 

Most young candidates, such as Adam Gase, would probably prefer a skilled GM than the potential challenge of doing it on their own.  Veteran candidates might try to grab more personnel power.

Even less solid than the Bears are the situations in Atlanta and New York, because we don’t know the future of their general managers.  On NFL Network's NFL GameDay Morning (via NFL.com's Kevin Patra), Ian Rapoport reported that Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff may or may not be retained. 

Meanwhile, the Jets are apparently having people turn down opportunities to interview for their open general manager job, as discussed in a report by Deadspin's Tom Ley.  That’s not a good sign, either.

On ESPN's Postseason NFL Countdown, ESPN's Adam Schefter (via Matthew Fairburn of Syracuse.com) reported that the front office’s decision to trade up for Sammy Watkins, rather than sit still and draft Odell Beckham Jr., may have caused Doug Marrone to surprisingly quit. 

If the situation was bad enough that an NFL head coach would willingly leave one of the 32 head coaching jobs available, how does that bode well for a future coach?

However, once again, Oakland is probably the least appealing destination here.  Years of front-office mismanagement bled Oakland dry of draft picks, which bled the Raiders dry of talent.  They couldn’t keep their top free agents this offseason, watching Jared Veldheer and Lamarr Houston leave town. 

There were rumors about GM Reggie McKenzie’s job security from Adam Schefter, though it looks like he kept his job for now.  A legacy of front-office blunders makes the Raiders' situation very unappealing.  That might be part of the reason Jim Harbaugh decided to "go back to college," avoiding the Raiders mess entirely.

49ers Verdict: Stability Means They Top the Class

Strength of Competition and Salary Cap

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

These are probably the least important two issues for head coaches to consider, but they still exist.

The 49ers are not an appealing team when it comes to strength of competition—six games a year against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams are a tough proposition for any team.  The NFC West in recent years has not been the easiest road to playoff glory—and on a team where Super Bowls are the only acceptable outcome every season, that’s not good.

The only team worse off than the 49ers is probably the Raiders, who have to face the toughest set of quarterbacks of any team in football.  Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Alex Smith are three really tough draws six times a year, so they’d be my pick for the worst divisional situation.

The best, of course, has to be the Atlanta Falcons—the NFC South couldn’t even get a team to .500 this season, so there’s room there for a new head coach to succeed immediately.  

The Bears in the NFC North would be next, as the Detroit Lions success has been very hit-or-miss, and the Green Bay Packers always seem like an Aaron Rodgers injury away from disaster.  Just above the 49ers, the Bills have a better situation than the Jets because the Bills are better than the Jets—two games against the Jets are easier than two against the Bills

49ers Verdict: Terrible

As for the salary cap, Spotrac currently estimates that the 49ers are actually $10 million over the 2015 cap.  This isn’t fully accurate, as de-escalators will reduce contracts of players such as Kaepernick, and the 2015 cap isn’t set, anyway.  Still, they’re not exactly going to be big players on the free-agent market.

On the flip side, the Oakland Raiders for once get to call themselves an enticing destination, with more than $50 million of cap space to play with. 

They can essentially try to go after any and all free agents they so desire.  Similarly, the New York Jets’ nearly $40 million cap space should also make them major players.  There’s plenty of room for a new head coach to build the sort of team he wants to coach, whereas the next 49ers coach has to fit in with the talent already there.

The Bears, Bills and Falcons all have something in the $20 million range, putting them in the top half of the league.  They don’t live up to the Raiders or Jets, but they are much better off there than the 49ers are.

49ers Verdict: Horrible

Overall Rankings

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

So, you’re the head coach.  You’ve gotten offers from all six clubs.  Which team do you pick?

In sixth place, I put the Oakland Raiders.  Yes, the ability to craft a team from scratch with $50 million in cap space sounds intriguing, but that’s pretty much the only enticing thing about the situation across the Bay.  We don’t even know what city they’ll be in in three years—there’s nothing stable about that situation.

In fifth place, I’d have the New York Jets.  You can build around Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, there’s plenty of money to work with, and they’re in good position in the draft.  However, the lack of any answer at quarterback is a deal-killer here.  Add in the microscope of being a coach just outside of New York City and I’d pass.

Third and fourth place are a really tough call between the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons.  Want the best quarterback and a division you can win in right away?  Then Atlanta is the choice for you.  Want the better top-to-bottom roster and a better corps of young players?  Then you should head for Buffalo.

Personally, I’d put the Falcons just ahead of the Bills—both teams have enough salary-cap space to make some moves this offseason, so the talent gap isn’t as huge as it might be.  The presence of a very good quarterback makes up for a lot of the deficiencies elsewhere.  Plus, the Falcons have their first-round pick; the Bills don’t.

In second place, I have the Chicago Bears, which might surprise people—Bleacher Report's Dan Hope actually had them as the least enticing job, thanks to the weight that is Cutler’s contract.  I’m not so sure Cutler’s a lost cause, however, and the offensive weaponry is definitely among the tops in the league. 

It wasn’t that long ago that Cutler was a solidly above-average NFL quarterback; if you believe he can get back there again, then the Bears job could lead to dividends right away.

However, I still think the most enticing head coaching position out there in the NFL right now belongs to the San Francisco 49ers.   Yes, they play in a very tough division.  Yes, the expectations of the owner, general manager and fanbase are the highest, leading to the most difficult expectations.  Yes, the salary-cap situation is by far the worst, and yes, Colin Kaepernick took a step backward in 2014. 

Overall, though, the 49ers are by far the most talented team looking for a head coach this offseason.  Jobs on teams this good simply do not open up.  It will thrust whoever the next head coach is right into the line of fire, but the 49ers can still be Super Bowl contenders in 2015—that seems out of the question for any of the other five jobs.

The 49ers won’t have any excuse if they don’t hire a good coach this year, because there aren’t any other jobs to lure coaches away from them.  They should get their top pick, so they’d better make it the right one.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.