MLB Playoffs 2011: Why the St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen Turned Around

In discussing the St. Louis Cardinals and the success of their bullpen in the postseason, there's a common misconception among some people. They expect to see a "regression to the mean" because the "same bullpen" blew the second most saves in Major League Baseball this year. It's a misconception because, literally, it's not the same bullpen.

The Cardinals restructured their bullpen through the season, and the bulk of the damage that came during the regular season is no longer there. The Cardinals exchanged one of the worst bullpens in MLB into one of the best, but because the uniforms were the same it was easy to confuse it. 

For a time after the trades manager Tony LaRussa moved the pitchers around and sought to fit them in their various roles. Over the last two months of the season the Cards quietly became an elite bullpen and it was a big part of the reason they made the playoffs in the first place. 

In fact, over the last month of the season the Cardinals had the National League's best record, and over that span, they have only had three losses assigned to their bullpen. Since August 1, there have only been six losses assigned to the pen, and five of those have come in extra innings, as many as were assigned to the bullpen in the first month alone. Through Aug 1 the Cards pen gave up 20 losses. 

Of the team's 26 blown saves, only 18 are represented by players that have started in the postseason. That's nearly one third of the blown saves on the season not currently on the roster. 

The Cardinals bullpen that has pitched in the postseason have some pretty respectable numbers. They have collectively given up an ERA of just 2.99 while pitching in relief on the season, not just since the trade deadline. Those who have done the most damage such as Ryan Franklin, who had four blown saves in just five opportunities and an ERA over eight all by himself, are no longer with the team.

If you want to evaluate the St. Louis bullpen right now, you have to look at the players that are on the team right now. Ryan Franklin isn't going to blow any saves in the postseason. The "regression to the mean" needs to only factor in current players. 

The other part of the equation though is the closing situation. The Cardinals lost a league leading 18 games in which they led in the eighth inning or later. A legitimate closer was their biggest issue. They started off the season with Franklin, and they struggled to find one since then. 

The Cardinals shuffled in several different pitchers. Fernando Salas converted 24 saves in 30 opportunities, converting 80 percent of his chances. That was the most of anyone on the Red Birds. Salas had a season ERA of just 2.28, but the six losses in save situations weren't working. 

That led to LaRussa plugging Jason Motte, who, at least by his pitching style and fastball, makes the most sense as a closer. The problem is that he's struggled in that role when given the chance in the past.

Motte isn't your typical pitcher though. He was drafted to be on the other end of the pitch as a catcher. In 2006 he broke his thumb and his batting was never the same after that. His conversion to pitcher wasn't a problem with his fastball as he tops out around 100 mp with movement.

He has the right amount of "crazy" that you need from an elite closer. He comes off the mound so hard when he releases his pitch that it almost looks like he's going to race to the plate and pummel you if you dare swing at it. A triple digit fastball with a catcher's mindset combine for the good makings of an elite closer. 

The problem was that he didn't have much of a breaking ball. However as the season progressed he finally started to get it up to an average pitch. It's still not a breaking ball that strikes fear in the hearts of opponents, but it's gotten to the point that it's good enough to use. 

Since the All-Star break Motte has been a dominant pitcher, giving up an ERA of 1.47 and WHIP of 0.698. His SO/9 IP is 8.2.  Of the 32 runners he's inherited, only four have scored, just 12.5 percent.  He has not allowed a baser in the postseason and three times he has come in and recorded four out saves. 

It's fair to say that whether he's the "official" closer or not, Motte is filling the role admirably. He has not only grown into a good closer but is also developing into one of the games' best closers. 

Motte was the final piece in the puzzle, particularly when you have the kind of mind that LaRussa does when it comes to working a pitching staff. Slas has been much better in set up situations. The Alphabet is the designated lefty killer.

Octavio Dotel, with his prior experience as a closer is great for shutting down rallies. Only three of the 20 runners he has inherited as a Cardinal, just 15 percent, have have scored.

Lance Lynn has become a great pitcher for long relief, as is Kyle McLellan since they both have more experience as starters. 

Due to a combination of new pitchers and pitchers finding their roles, this Cardinals bullpen both literally and figuratively is not the same pen. The ERA they've put up in the postseason is no anomaly. Look for them to continue to shine as the postseason progresses.