NFL: Liver's Week 17 Picks

Hard to believe it’s Week 17 and after this weekend there will only be 11 NFL games remaining. After The Liver’s much deserved Roman style Christmas vacation, it’s back to work.

This should be the worst week of the season with no less than EIGHT of the 16 games this week meaning absolutely nothing. Of the remaining eight games, seven feature teams that need to win for either playoff positioning or to keep pretending that they have a shot at getting in. The opponents are either out of the playoffs completely or have already solidified their playoff spots and have nothing to gain by playing their starters.

The only game this week in which BOTH teams have something to gain….that would be the Filthy Eagles coming to The Death Star to face The Liver’s surprisingly playoff-bound Dallas Cowboys.

This week shouldn’t even count, gambling-wise, but it does. The lines are so skewed this week because even Vegas doesn’t know who’s going to play like they care or not.

Six days left until The Liver’s beloved Longhorns play Alabama for the National Championship. Not even going to try and pick that game because there’s no way I can emotionally detach myself to look at it in a black and white way. I will say that Texas MUST play their most complete game of the season in order to win against a nasty Alabama defense.

None of this take the first half off and then come out on fire in the second half crap that they’ve done way too many times this year. If Texas can win the turnover battle and keep Heisman winner Mark Ingram under 100 yards rushing, they can win. This is going to be where Texas fans see what Will Muschamp truly has in his bag. His defense has been underwhelming at times this season and he will need to have them play their best football in order to claim Texas’ second national championship in four years.

HOOK ‘EM HORNS

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 8-7-1

2009 record against the spread: 133-101-6 (.568)


Sunday, January 3

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-7)
Are the Colts a gutless franchise that will tank games to rest players when immortality is within their grasp? Is Charlie Sheen guaranteed a domestic incident involving a soon-to-be ex-wife once every 4-5 years? Kudos to the Colts fans who felt cheated and betrayed by Jim Caldwell’s soon-to-be infamous decision and put so much heat on the team that Colts President Bill Polian’s weekly radio show had to be cancelled. And let’s not even get into how many fantasy teams and gambling picks (LIKE THE LIVER’S ) that were destroyed by that decision. I’m now rooting for the Colts to get knocked out in the playoffs. Oh wait, the Chargers will take care of that in the AFC Championship game. If Buffalo can’t beat the Colts JV team this week, Ralph Wilson Jr. should refund everyone’s game ticket. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans at Carolina (-3)
The once unbeatable Saints are having some problems right now and despite having home field wrapped up in the NFC might actually need a win here to have some confidence going into the playoffs as opposed to going in on a three-game losing streak. They won’t find it easy against a Carolina team that has looked strong the last few weeks with Matt Moore as QB. Just think where they’d be if John Fox had benched Jake Delhomme earlier and put Moore in. I'm guessing that the Saints will pull the starters in the second half. Pick: Carolina

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)
Are the Browns really playing for Eric Mangini right now? Could ANYONE have seen this playing out two months ago? Are the Browns really stupid enough to fire Mangini and in effect be paying TWO former coaches not to coach? Romeo Crennel is still collecting a fat paycheck. No wonder he looks so happy in those Coors Light commercials. Pick: Cleveland

Chicago at Detroit (+3)
Just to show you all how much The Liver hates Brett Favre and the Vikings; I was rooting for Jay Cutler last week like he was Troy Aikman. Pick: Chicago

New England at Houston (-7 ½)
Do the Patriots sit their starters here? Obviously Vegas thinks they will. Brady might play…FOR A QUARTER . Houston’s chances of getting into the playoffs are slim to none, but with the win they would finish at 9-7 which is the best season in the Texans long and storied history. Just think what kind of damage they would do in the playoffs if they could’ve won ONE big game this year. Pick: Houston

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)
As a Texas Longhorns die-hard, no story was better in the NFL than Ricky Williams returning to form and rushing for over 1,000 yards for the first time in six years. On a depressing side note; Ricky Williams is referred to as the “wise old veteran” in the Miami locker room. Williams’ age is 32. The Liver’s age is 32. If he was playing here I’d take Miami but he’s doubtful for now so… Pick: Pittsburgh

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-9)
So NOW who’s the QB who can’t win in December? That would be your starting QB Brett Favre, Vikings fans. The whole Mr. Magoo/Favre controversy was something that ANYONE with a football IQ of 10 or higher could have seen coming. That doesn’t make it any less enjoyable. Can we all agree now that while AP is an incredible running back, he’s got a serious fumbling problem that could make Tiki Barber and Ahman Green wince? If the Giants can win and the Cowboys win then it’s conceivable that the Cowboys could be the No.2 seed in the NFC and get a bye. Pick: N.Y. Giants

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)
San Francisco should destroy the Rams here and with the No.1 pick in the draft at stake, why would the Rams even try to win? Stephen Jackson is questionable with a back injury that kept him out of last week’s game. I’d like to extend a personal thanks to the Rams coaching staff who didn’t reveal until right before kickoff that Jackson wouldn’t be playing against Arizona.

I’m sure none of the people like THE LIVER who picked the Rams to cover the 14 point spread would have changed their pick in a heartbeat had we known that Jackson wouldn’t be playing. It's polite considerations like that that make me want to pull a Walter Sobchak and smash Steve Spagnuola’s car with a crow bar while yelling “This is what happens when you f**k a stranger in the ass.” Of course “we’re talking about unchecked aggression here Dude.”  Pick: San Francisco

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2)
If there was an award for Worst Coach of the Year do you think Raheem Morris would accept it? Pick: Atlanta

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)
The Liver is never one to hide when he’s wrong so here it comes…I didn’t think the Cowboys would be in the position that they’re in. NO realistic Cowboys fan saw this two weeks ago coming off of losses to the Giants and the Chargers. But that win in New Orleans could go down as a defining moment in Cowboys history. A win here would erase the still nauseating 2008 season finale in Filthy Philly that resulted in the infamous 44-6 debacle.

Tony Romo might be playing the best football of his brief career and the defense looks like a pack of rabid dogs right now. However, that secondary CANNOT contain DeSean Jackson who scares me the way Mike Leach scares Adam James. Also, the offense still doesn’t look right. Shutting out the Redskins 17-0 was nice but 14 of those points came off of a Campbell interception early and Jason Witten’s 69-yard reception that put the Cowboys in the red zone.

They left at least 14 more points on the field and Shaun Suisham doesn’t make me feel much better then Nick Folk. Sooner or later, he’s going to be needed to hit a clutch kick and he just can’t do it. Having no faith in your kicker affects an offense in countless ways because it’s going to make offensive coordinator Jason Garrett have to take unnecessary gambles since he doesn’t know if his kicker can hit a 35 or 40 yarder.

This game is far more significant for the Cowboys because a win means the NFC East crown and at least the No.3 spot in the NFC which means one home playoff game possibly against the Eagles for the second time in a week. A win here becomes the biggest win for this franchise in the Wade Phillips era and would give them real confidence that they could beat Filthy again should they meet up in the wild card. A loss means most likely a trip to Minnesota but I’m not too afraid of them right now for some reason. Still, it would be extremely difficult for the Cowboys to win in the Metrodome where the Vikings have been dominant.

I think the Cowboys can win here but Filthy might be the best team in the NFC right now. The Death Star and the Dallas fans need to provide the home field advantage that Jerry and the city of Arlington shelled out $1.2 billion for. I rarely do this, but I’m going to take an emotional chance on this team that I haven’t done all season. Congratulations to Miles Austin on a well earned Pro Bowl selection. Here’s hoping he won’t be playing in that crap due to a more important game he’ll be playing in South Florida the following week. He deserves all the Playboy Bunnies he can get. Pick: Dallas

Green Bay at Arizona (-3)
A position game for Arizona here and Green Bay has nothing to gain by playing all out since they are locked into the No.5 seed and there is a strong possibility that these two teams will be meeting again later this week. Then again, Arizona would be wise to give Warner some rest considering that he’s one concussion away from retiring. Pick: Arizona

Kansas City at Denver (-13 ½)
Looks like Brandon Marshall is returning to his “Teammate of the Year” territory and at the perfect time. Josh McDaniels is benching him for the biggest game of the year because Marshall is supposedly pretending his right hamstring is more of an issue than acting like a sissy. Prosperity for Marshall is like prosperity for Lindsay Lohan; neither know what it is or what to do with it. Kudos to McDaniels for the brave move BUT you’re benching your best offensive weapon for a game that you have to win in order to avoid a 2-8 collapse after a 6-0 start and a second consecutive year of pissing away the AFC West title.  Pick: Kansas City

Baltimore at Oakland (+10 ½)
Baltimore has to win to get in but Oakland has made a habit this year of screwing up other teams’ seasons. I don’t think I’ve seen a team more undisciplined in my life when it comes to penalties than the Ravens, and remember I’m a Cowboys fan. Pick: Oakland

Washington at San Diego (-3 ½)
San Diego truly has nothing to play for here but even with their second stringers in there the Redskins have been on vacation for two weeks now so why can’t San Diego beat this dog? Bad time for Washington sports fans with Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittendon drawing down in the locker room Christmas Eve over a gambling debt. Please dear god let it have been a debt over NBA games. PLEASE .

As a David Stern hater, I couldn’t be happier. Let’s see him slide THIS under the carpet. Tim Donaghy might turn out to be the Jose Canseco of the NBA as far as blowing the whistle (no pun intended) on crooked refs and fixed games. Pick: San Diego

Tennessee at Seattle (+4)
The Titans may not be going to the playoffs but Chris Johnson is still running and the Seahawks went golfing weeks ago. Pick: Tennessee

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (-10)
The Jets and their fans should be thanking the sports gods that they got to play the gutless Colts last week and basically get handed a playoff spot. It’s still an insult to the other AFC teams (Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, and Dolphins) that were fighting for that spot. Nevertheless, The Sanchize can take his first real step in becoming a New York sports icon if he and the top ranked Jets defense can win here and get into the playoffs.

Then again, the Jets have made it a habit of stomping all over their fans' hopes at the most crucial of times. And there’s the factor that if the Patriots lose and the Bengals win, then the Bengals would be the No.3 seed in the AFC. Can you imagine the fury of the NBC executives when they realized that they couldn’t flex Dallas/Filthy to the night game because of the Cowboys already having appeared the league max three times on Sunday night? You don’t think there was an anonymous NBC exec. that made a desperate call to Roger Goodell pleading “Can’t you just let it slide this one time?. No one will notice.” Pick: Cincinnati