AFC East Predictions—Season Simulated 1,000 Times

As we did last season, Whatifsports will utilize our NFL simulation technology, statistical research capabilities, up-to-the minute roster and depth chart information to preview the upcoming NFL season.  We will look at each division before before presenting final standings, stats, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners and playoff game boxscores. This analysis is just part of a broader endeavor in which WhatIfSports.com provides weekly fantasy projections for FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

For 2008, to go along with comprehensive individual player statistics and fantasy rankings, we will be showing projected scores and winning percentages from the simulations of all 267 regular and post season games. Also, we will be running our first installment of the NFL Power Rankings after the playoff results article is posted.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 8, 2008. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Today we will preview the AFC East.

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