Expert Predictions for Week 5 in College Football
Bleacher Report's college football experts are in unanimous agreement that No. 2 Clemson will defeat No. 12 Virginia, that No. 25 LSU will beat Troy (but it won't be pretty) and that Alabama is the only other SEC team guaranteed to win in Week 5.
For each of the other questions, there's well-reasoned dissent—most notably the open-ended question of who pulls off the biggest upset of the week.
That's a good thing, though, because when we agree on a prediction, sometimes TCU waltzes into Stillwater for an upset and we all look silly. Whoops.
With that in mind, our college football experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Greg Wallace—offered up predictions on nine of the hottest burning questions of the week, including:
- Will road favorites No. 5 USC and No. 2 Clemson be able to defeat No. 16 Washington State and No. 12 Virginia Tech, respectively?
- Does Florida State finally get its first win of the season?
- How many points will Oklahoma State and Texas Tech put up against each other?
- Can Saquon Barkley dominate again?
Our experts are on the case to let you know.
No. 5 USC vs. No. 16 Washington State: Who You Got?
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Matt Hayes — Follow @MattHayesCFB
The Palouse on a Friday night with a 10:30 ET kick? Heaven. One more thing that can't be ignored: According to CFB Film Room, USC quarterback Sam Darnold's average completion against Cal traveled 0.8 yards past the line of scrimmage. He was 6-of-16 with no touchdowns and one interception on throws of five-plus yards. I don't know if that makes the Wazzu defense any better, but I'm going with the Cougars.
David Kenyon — Follow @Kenyon19_BR
Although USC hasn't been especially impressive this season, the Trojans are closing out games with sharp finishes. Sure, that's probably not sustainable for a full season, but it's encouraging given the team's penchant for slow starts. Plus, USC's secondary is the type of unit capable of limiting Washington State's passing attack. The Cougars tend to struggle when their aerial efficiency lacks explosiveness. Give me USC.
Adam Kramer — Follow @KegsnEggs
I will somewhat begrudgingly say USC, which is not something I expected to say before the season began. Washington State is extremely dangerous, especially in that stadium, where Fireball flows through the bodies of anxious fans prime for an upset. Injuries have been an issue for the Trojans, although lackluster play has been the bigger problem. This will be another struggle against a talented team, experienced quarterback and wonderfully weird head coach. But Darnold will make just enough plays when he has to, and USC will avoid driving off into the ravine a little longer.
Kerry Miller — Follow @kerrancejames
I know it's heresy in this business, but I'm not buying USC and Darnold right now. Like, at all. Every time the Trojans struggle, it gets spun as their "wake-up call," but how many wake-up calls do you need before you actually, you know, wake up? Outside of the game against Stanford, this team hasn't looked good. Meanwhile, Washington State is scoring at will against everyone. I expect an entertaining shootout, and Luke Falk will be the better QB in the game. Cougars win 42-31.
Brad Shepard — Follow @Brad_Shepard
Southern Cal hasn't looked quite as good as I've expected it to this season, but it continues to win games. Wazzu is a quality opponent that is going to win eight or nine games this season, but it doesn't have the capability to hang with the Trojans for all four quarters. Darnold will come out this week and prove to Mike Leach that even though he may still need some polish to go to the NFL, he's plenty good enough to handle the Cougars.
Greg Wallace — Follow @gc_wallace
It's a shame this game is on Friday night in Pullman because it would be an ideal opportunity for College GameDay to visit the Palouse at last. It's a perfect road test for a USC team that has looked far from perfect so far, needing two overtimes to survive a feisty Texas group and struggling with Western Michigan for three quarters. Darnold was a Heisman favorite, but he has seven interceptions with his nine touchdowns thus far. Washington State has a potent pass attack, as Falk has 14 touchdowns against one interception, but it hasn't been pushed like this thus far. Darnold feasts on the Cougars secondary, and USC takes an important road win.
Who Wins Potential ACC Champ. Preview: No. 2 Clemson or No. 12 Virginia Tech?
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Matt Hayes
You can ask for the remainder of the season—all things staying equal and no significant injuries—who wins between Clemson and (insert team), and I'll take Clemson. The defense is wicked good, and QB Kelly Bryant gets better with every snap.
David Kenyon
Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster will try to stall the running game with an aggressive six-man front, so he'll be challenging Bryant to beat single coverage. If Clemson's quarterback can complete a couple of downfield passes early, it should open up the offense and help the Tigers survive a nasty September slate.
Adam Kramer
Let's dance around this answer first. This is a lovely game in a wonderful environment, featuring two of the most exciting new quarterbacks in the game right now. Justin Fuente has found his quarterback of the future (and the now) in Josh Jackson, who will get a sizable increase in competition. Kelly Bryant, meanwhile, has been mostly brilliant and also already has one win in a difficult environment (Louisville) under his belt. Defense will factor large throughout the night, although it wouldn't shock me to watch Clemson start slow and then come on strong with a big second half. To me, this might be one of the best games of the young season. Give me Clemson in a close, ugly, beautiful game.
Kerry Miller
Virginia Tech has been pretty darn solid the past three weeks, but it had the luxury of facing one FCS school (Delaware) and two of the 20 worst FBS teams in the country, per The Athletic's Chris Vannini (Old Dominion and East Carolina). Not sure how much we can take away from the Hokies' dismantling those teams by a combined margin of 129-17. Even though it's a road game for Clemson, give me the team that has actually been tested recently.
Brad Shepard
This is going to be a really good game. Fuente is one of the best young coaches in the country, and after narrowly missing his opportunity to knock off Dabo Swinney's Tigers in last year's ACC Championship Game, he gets another chance Saturday. He won't take advantage, though. The Hokies are talented but young at quarterback, and that's not good against a defense like Clemson's. It will be close, but the Tigers prevail.
Greg Wallace
Four weeks into the season, Clemson and Virginia Tech have emerged as the class of the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, respectively, and it would be no surprise to see them meet up again in Charlotte in early December. Lane Stadium will be rocking for a prime-time showdown, but Clemson and Kelly Bryant showed they aren't intimidated by raucous environments—just ask Lamar Jackson and Louisville. Bryant will get his share of yardage and scores against Bud Foster's defense, and Tech freshman QB Josh Jackson will have a rude awakening against Clemson's nasty defensive line. Tech will challenge, but Clemson wins 31-17.
Which Noon ET Game Goes off the Rails This Week?
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For context, Week 1 had Maryland vs. Texas. Week 2 was Iowa vs. Iowa State. In Week 3, UCLA vs. Memphis. And last week, we were blessed with Texas A&M vs. Arkansas. For whatever reason, there's always one early game that's absolutely nuts.
Matt Hayes
Vanderbilt at Florida. The Commodores are desperate after an emasculating loss to Alabama. And Florida coach Jim McElwain owns one-possession games (9-1 at Florida in games decided by eight points or fewer). Now, how we get to that one-possession margin is a story all its own.
David Kenyon
At 1-3, North Carolina is in desperation mode against Georgia Tech. The Heels still have Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami and NC State on the schedule, so a loss Saturday just about eliminates Larry Fedora's team from bowl consideration. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech cannot afford to lose this game since its Coastal Division hopes still include a journey through Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech. There should be plenty of points in Atlanta.
Adam Kramer
I just have a feeling Georgia Tech-North Carolina will be all sorts of weird, absent of defense and a perfect appetizer for what should be a quality slate of games. My only concern while assessing potential "off-the-rail-ness" is whether UNC can keep up with Georgia Tech quarterback TaQuon Marshall, who looks like a star in the making. But if the Heels can score, and I believe they will, this has all the makings of a nooner that takes about four hours—even with an option team—and is nothing more than players in the open field scoring touchdowns.
Kerry Miller
I'll have more to say on the Syracuse vs. NC State game in a little bit, but New Mexico State vs. Arkansas might be the one that goes wild. NMSU has averaged at least 6.0 yards per play on offense in each of its four games and has a legitimate receiving weapon in Jaleel Scott. The Arkansas defense, meanwhile, has been just plain bad against its two FBS foes. I'm not picking the Aggies to pull off the upset, but it wouldn't be a proper Saturday in college football if Bret Bielema wasn't sweating bullets.
Brad Shepard
I'll go with Vanderbilt at Florida. The Commodores learned a valuable lesson last week: Nobody calls out Alabama. It's right up there with putting Baby in a corner. Fifty-nine unanswered points later, coach Derek Mason's team was humbled. But Florida isn't Alabama. The Gators have won the past two games with smoke and mirrors, and this is the game where Ralph Webb returns to his hometown and leaves VU with a legacy win.
Greg Wallace
This week's noon ET slate is less than impressive compared to previous weeks, but Maryland at Minnesota stands out. The teams are a combined 5-1 and looking to make a splash in their Big Ten opener. Minnesota is averaging 33 points per game and Maryland is at 41.3, although the Terps are down to their third-string quarterback. Can Maryland stop Minnesota? Can the Gophers slow down the Terps? This could be a fun matchup on FS1.
Who Takes the Battle Between Winless Florida State and Undefeated Wake Forest?
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Matt Hayes
Let's begin with the idea that FSU freshman QB James Blackman will be very good. He's young and learning the position. Let's also embrace the reality that the FSU offensive line—underachievers for the last 15 games—has been motivated all week by an angry position coach (Rick Trickett) and a head coach (Jimbo Fisher) tired of seeing his quarterbacks take unnecessary hits. FSU will protect Blackman, and the 'Noles will get their first win of the season.
David Kenyon
Wake Forest's defense is for real (again), but the offense still isn't ready for an opponent of this caliber. The Deacs only picked up a combined 4.7 yards per play when they topped Boston College and Appalachian State. This feels like a matchup where Wake Forest sticks around until FSU scores on a couple of fourth-quarter drives.
Adam Kramer
Can we stop for one moment to appreciate Wake Forest and the job Dave Clawson has done? This program was a laughingstock a few years ago, and now who wins this game is a legitimate question. Not only is the question legit, but I believe Wake wins. The 2011 me wouldn't possibly understand this response, but he doesn't have to. Wake Forest is good, and Florida State feels like a broken program at the moment. An upset here, which would be mild in scale, would not surprise me one bit.
Kerry Miller
Got to go with Florida State, right? Maybe not. In each of the last two seasons, these teams have played ugly, low-scoring games, and Wake Forest appears to be better on defense than it was in those years. At any rate, the Demon Deacons are averaging better than 8.0 tackles for loss per game, and the offensive line is FSU's biggest weakness. Give me Wake Forest in a 20-16 upset.
Brad Shepard
Florida State will get back on track this week. This won't be a pretty game, and though the Demon Deacons have looked a little bit better offensively than in previous years, they haven't played a unit that is the same caliber as the Seminoles. It won't be a style-points win, but FSU will get some more seasoning for its young quarterback situation and win something like 27-7.
Greg Wallace
These are not fun times in Tallahassee. An FSU team expected to contend for the College Football Playoff is 0-2 for the first time since 1989 and out of the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2011. Which raises the question: Are the 'Noles vulnerable at Wake Forest? The Demon Deacons are 4-0, but their best win is over hapless Boston College. Derwin James and FSU find themselves after getting pushed around by NC State and right the ship with a dominant defensive effort in Winston-Salem.
Will No. 25 LSU Bounce Back to Form Against Troy After Back-to-Back Struggles?
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Matt Hayes
The Tigers will win, and more importantly, Myles Brennan will get more game reps just in case he's needed a week later in a game that means something at Florida. This game is nothing more than winning, staying sharp and staying healthy.
David Kenyon
If you're expecting a complete 60-minute domination, that's probably not going to happen. Not only is Troy a quality team (especially on defense), the Tigers are dealing with some injury problems and potentially a quarterback rotation. They'll pull away eventually, but it might not be pretty.
Adam Kramer
The Tigers will win, which seems like the place to start. But the optics of the win—and LSU is a rather hefty favorite in this game—won't match the expectations of a suddenly concerned fanbase. Derrius Guice should hopefully be healthier here, which will help. But the offense has yet to find much rhythm, and the defense just gave up 24 first downs to Syracuse. (That is not great, by the way.) Ultimately, the Tigers will settle into the offense of Matt Canada, who is very good at his job. The team just won't get its calming blowout here.
Kerry Miller
I say no. LSU has been struggling on offense all season, and that isn't going to get any better with Guice questionable to play in this game. The Tigers have also looked uninspired on defense the past two weeks. LSU probably wins by a 24-17 type of margin, but it won't be a springboard into the brutal four-game stretch that awaits.
Brad Shepard
Troy is a good football team, but it isn't up to the caliber of the Tigers. LSU isn't a good football team right now and shouldn't be ranked. But the pressure will come when Ed Orgeron loses games, not when he wins ugly. Again, much like the FSU-Wake Forest game, this won't be one that completely appeases the fanbase, but it won't ever be in question. Troy will score points, but it won't be enough.
Greg Wallace
LSU has been underwhelming over the last two weeks with a 37-7 blowout loss at Mississippi State and a tougher-than-expected 35-26 win over Syracuse. Troy looks like a pick-me-up game, although the Trojans are 3-1 with an 11-point loss to Boise State as their only blemish. Still, an offense that averages 24 points per game can't hang with LSU. If Guice is healthy and on the field, the Tigers will roll and get back on track.
Will Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Be the Highest-Scoring Game of the Year?
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Matt Hayes
Not even close. For these two to score more than 115 points (Missouri State vs. Missouri), it would take a monumental collapse by the Oklahoma State defense. In Big 12 lingo, monumental collapse on defense translates to 50-plus points. Mason Rudolph and Nic Shimonek are going to put up ridiculous numbers, but the Cowboys' winning by a final score of 54-41 sounds more likely. And 95 points isn't shabby.
David Kenyon
Of the year? No, but it should approach 100 combined points. Texas Tech's defense was decent in a victory over Houston, but Rudolph should have little trouble picking apart the Red Raiders. Considering the weakness TCU made clear last week, though, Oklahoma State's big question entering the year—is this defense good enough?—doesn't have a promising answer.
Adam Kramer
A few weeks ago, I would have happily voted yes. Then something strange happened: Texas Tech, believe it or not, has started to play defense. No, this is not Alabama. But this group is so much better than it was a year ago, and it's starting to show. That being said, both of these teams can move the ball all over the field, and Oklahoma State will want to pick up the pieces from a week ago. We might get 80 or more here, but bigger totals are out there down the line.
Kerry Miller
Missouri and Missouri State set one heck of a bar to clear, but these two teams know a thing or two about putting points on the board. In each of the past four seasons, the losing team in this matchup scored at least 34 points. And in 2015, they hung a combined 123 points on the scoreboard. It won't quite reach 115, but it could end up being one of the five highest-scoring affairs of the season.
Brad Shepard
Every time I think a game is going to be a high-flying attack, it isn't. (See: Ole Miss at California.) But there are going to be a lot of points scored in this game. The current high is 115, though, and this game won't get that high. It'll wind up something like 59-42. If you love games like that—not my cup of tea—you should tune in.
Greg Wallace
Oklahoma State-Texas Tech has the potential to be a lot of fun. The teams enter Saturday night averaging a combined 93.3 points per game and feature pass-happy offenses and quarterbacks that are more than capable of putting up big numbers in OSU's Mason Rudolph and Tech's Nic Shimonek. But here's the rub. Tech's defense is improved from a year ago, allowing 26.3 points per game. And Oklahoma State, although it didn't show it against TCU, is capable of shutting opposing offenses down. I'm not saying this will be 14-13, but it won't be 66-59 like Oklahoma-Texas Tech last fall either. Somewhere in the middle, and exciting action, but not 115 points.
Which RB Has the Best Day: Saquon Barkley, Bryce Love or Rashaad Penny?
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Matt Hayes
I'm all about Saquon Barkley, and in a perfect world against a shaky Indiana defense, he might get 275 yards rushing. But this is seven days after getting 40 touches (28 carries, 12 catches) against a tough Iowa defense. Penn State can't keep that pace all season. Stanford's Bryce Love has seven more carries than Barkley this season (73 to 66) and is coming off a 30-carry game against UCLA. I'm going with San Diego State's Rashaad Penny, who has more carries (91 carries, 103 touches) than Barkley and Love and is playing at home against a decent NIU defense.
David Kenyon
Arizona State deserves a hearty golf clap for holding Oregon to 120 rushing yards, but this is the same defense that surrendered 216 yards on 18 carries to Penny. While each of the running backs should have a productive day, Love might have 200 yards by the end of the third quarter against the Sun Devils.
Adam Kramer
Before I say someone else, let me first say Saquon Barkley is the best football player in America and the most watchable running back since Reggie Bush. That felt good to say. Now, with that out in the open, I'll take Love to have the biggest Saturday against an Arizona State defense that is allowing 4.71 yards per carry on the year. Love is so much fun to watch and a nightmare to bring down. The Sun Devils will learn this firsthand.
Kerry Miller
Though I'm enamored with his season thus far, I'm going to rule out Penny because he's going up against a Northern Illinois defense that ranks third in the nation in yards allowed per carry. Granted, the Huskies haven't faced anything close to a Rashaad Penny, but it's enough for me to whittle the field down to Barkley or Love. I'm going with Barkley because he's got something to prove against Indiana after the Hoosiers held him to 58 yards on 33 carries last season.
Brad Shepard
Before last weekend, I'd have said Love against Arizona State, but after the Sun Devils did a nice job on Royce Freeman, they may be improving on that side of the ball. Considering Penny is going against a better-than-advertised Northern Illinois team, I'm going to go with the hot hand and say Barkley. A week after winning national player of the week for his performance against Iowa, he'll face an Indiana defense that isn't nearly as good. He'll finish with more than 200 all-purpose yards.
Greg Wallace
Barkley, Love and Penny have emerged as three of the most exciting, productive backs in college football. However, Barkley is in a class by himself, as he showed with a Heisman-worthy effort in Penn State's 21-19 last-second win at Iowa. He had a combined 305 yards rushing and receiving, 211 on the ground. This week, he gets an Indiana team that was burned for numerous big plays by Ohio State and is allowing 196.3 rushing yards per game. It would be no surprise to see him go for 200 and have the best day of the trio. Love faces an Arizona State team that yields 155.5 yards on the ground and Penny gets a Northern Illinois outfit that allows just 97.7, so Barkley is the choice here.
Which Team Pulls Off the Most Surprising Upset of the Week?
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Matt Hayes
I'm going to tell you Duke beating Miami is an upset, and we're all going to think long and hard about it and wonder why. If nothing else, a Duke victory is an upset on rankings alone (Miami, No. 14; Duke, unranked). The Duke defense is giving up 15.3 points a game, and QB Daniel Jones' dual-threat ability will give the Miami defense problems from the first snap.
David Kenyon
Depending who you ask, Utah State's knocking off BYU wouldn't be a surprise. However, it would only be the third Utah State victory in the last 18 meetings. Colorado at UCLA is worth monitoring if Josh Rosen launches a couple of questionable passes since the Bruins defense needs all the help it can get.
Adam Kramer
My pick of Wake Forest over Florida State would apply here due to the difference in the sheer prestige of the programs. But it's boring to not pick another team, so let's hand out another. Give me Illinois over Nebraska at home in a game that will send most Nebraska fans to the moon, especially if quarterback Tanner Lee throws a football to the other team. It feels like the Cornhuskers have lost all reasonable momentum, and Illinois is in a fantastic spot to give Lovie Smith a win he could desperately use. A loss for Nebraska, however, might trigger another bit of employment news before the weekend ends.
Kerry Miller
This might be nuts, but I like Syracuse as a 12-point underdog against NC State. The Orange are drastically better on defense than they were last year, and they're averaging 35.0 points per game thanks in large part to one of the top-producing wide receivers in the country (Steve Ishmael). Heck, they almost just won a road game against LSU. Meanwhile, NC State might have a bit of a hangover after its win over Florida State, and it may already be looking ahead to next Thursday's showdown with Louisville.
Brad Shepard
Baylor hasn't won a football game this year, and that's a stunner to everybody who follows the sport. The Bears are bad, but they aren't that bad, and they proved it last week by taking Oklahoma deep into the game before running out of horses. Their brutal early-season schedule continues this week as they travel to Manhattan, where they're 17-point underdogs to Kansas State. Look for them to pull a huge upset for their first win of the year.
Greg Wallace
Northern Illinois is an 11-point underdog to No. 19 San Diego State but enters Qualcomm Stadium with plenty of confidence. The Huskies upset Nebraska in Lincoln and played ACC foe Boston College to the wire at home before falling 23-20. They'll be ready for a potentially difficult test against dynamic back Rashaad Penny. San Diego State has upsets of Arizona State and Stanford on its resume, but a year ago, the Aztecs beat Cal and lost to South Alabama by 18. NIU is capable of and ready for the upset.
Quick Picks: Who Wins Each of the 5 SEC Showdowns?
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Matt Hayes
Alabama over Ole Miss, Auburn over Mississippi State, Florida over Vanderbilt, Georgia over Tennessee and Texas A&M over South Carolina. Georgia is playing well and gaining more confidence under freshman QB Jake Fromm. Tennessee hasn't played well in four games, and coach Butch Jones is blaming the media—the first true sign that a coach is losing control. Not hard to see where this one is headed.
David Kenyon
I'll take the chalk with Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M. I'll continue to be painfully interested in Florida's quarterback dilemma—especially since Malik Zaire seems to have fallen out of the conversation, though his mobility could be an asset against Vanderbilt. Luke Del Rio is back in charge for the Gators, but will they make it through the game without trying someone else?
Adam Kramer
Alabama (LARGE), Auburn (large-ish), Florida (probably kind of gross), Georgia (close-ish) and Texas A&M (sure, that's fine). I'm not saying Georgia will lose—I don't see that happening—but it wouldn't shock me if Tennessee rallied some behind that goofy trashcan and gave the Bulldogs a mild, message board-crashing scare.
Kerry Miller
Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Georgia and the Fightin' Kevin Sumlins. While it might be the biggest blowout, I'm most intrigued by the Alabama-Ole Miss game. From the moment Ole Miss was banned from postseason play, its No. 1 goal for the 2017 season became beating Alabama. The Rebels are 2-1 in their last three games against the Crimson Tide, each of which was decided by less than a touchdown. One could certainly make the joke that Alabama is coming off a bye week after its 59-0 trouncing of Vanderbilt, but Ole Miss has been planning for this game for two weeks.
Brad Shepard
Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Georgia, South Carolina. That Tennessee-Georgia line (Georgia by eight) looks like Vegas knows something we don't. But the Vols are a mess right now internally, and coach Butch Jones seems about to self-destruct. It'll go down to the wire (which will be maddening for UT fans), but Georgia wins. You just know Tennessee is going to find a creative way to yet again rip fans' hearts out.
Greg Wallace
Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M. Mississippi State was embarrassed last week at Georgia in a 31-3 defeat, but I'm still not sold on Auburn's offense and Jarrett Stidham under center. The Tigers' only truly impressive effort came last week at a Missouri team that appears to have already packed it in. Nick Fitzgerald and MSU's defense both rebound this week and take a hard-fought win at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
All point spreads via OddsShark.
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