Boston Celtics Insider: Celts Are Among 2016-17's NBA Title Contenders

Heading into any NBA season, no more than a handful of teams (typically four or five, at the most) boast the talent, depth and chemistry required to win a championship. Conventional wisdom says 2017 will be no different, with the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers armed and ready to face off in a third straight NBA Finals. 

But 82 regular-season games and four playoff rounds take place for a reason, and professional sports have a magical way of defying precedent with unpredictable outcomes. With that in mind, a few other teams may have what it takes to topple a (probably wounded) juggernaut. 

The Boston Celtics are on that short list. 

But are they really "title contenders"?

The question has no definitive answer—especially when posed to players and coaches around the organization. For multiple reasons, however, Boston—a team that last won a playoff series in 2012—is built to roll through the regular season and, at the very least, advance to the second round. 

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"Right when you define something that’s success, and you reach it, you don’t go any further," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said during the team’s media day. "You set the limit for your team, and I’m certainly not into setting ceilings."

The Horford Effect

ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus predicts the Celtics will finish with the Eastern Conference’s second-best record, and only the Cavaliers, Warriors and San Antonio Spurs have higher championship odds, according to Odds Shark. 

The Celts won 48 games last season, with a top-five defense and the ninth-youngest roster in the league. Only six teams finished the season leading in a higher percentage of their total minutes, per Nylon Calculus. All this occurred on the shoulders of inexperienced overachievers, with Isaiah Thomas serving as an offensive catalyst and Jae Crowder emerging as much more than the three-and-D stalwart Boston hoped he could be.

Things really changed in July, when Al Horford became the most significant free-agent signing in franchise history. One of the most dependable NBA players on both sides of the ball for nearly a decade, Horford slides in as Boston’s starting center and best player on a team that badly needed a proven scorer who can protect the rim, guard every frontcourt position and lessen pressure as a savvy release valve in the pick-and-roll.

His assimilation into the Boston offense was bumpy through the first week of training camp, but Horford is increasingly comfortable in a system that runs parallel to the program he flourished with on the Atlanta Hawks over the past few years. 

"I’m starting to get familiar with the concepts, with the plays," Horford said this week. "The more that we play, the more familiar I’ll get with everyone."

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Even though Avery Bradley was named to the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team last season, Horford may be Boston’s most influential defender since Kevin Garnett. He’s quick enough to handle multiple pick-and-roll coverages, smart enough to seal off angles and identify various actions, and strong enough to battle for post position.

With Horford at center and just about every major contributor from last year’s fourth-ranked unit back—and probably even better—in 2017, the Celtics now have "best defense in the league" potential.  

(Rebounding is a concern with Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger both out of the picture—and Horford coming off his least effective season on the glass—but it’ll be interesting to see how many teams are forced to downsize when Boston blitzes them with smaller units.)

Offensively, Horford treats the ball like a hot potato, always moving it along and forcing the defense to read and react. When necessary, he can score in the post or force help rotations and then pass out to open shooters. Among players who averaged at least 60 touches per game last season, Horford’s 1.43 seconds per touch were lowest in the league, per NBA.com.

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The four-time All-Star will flex his real value in the playoffs, when Boston has the option of going big or small with him at center. Opposing bigs can’t leave him alone on the perimeter, while he’s plenty agile enough to hang with playmaking forwards on the other end; Horford is a snug fit beside Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Crowder, Jonas Jerebko or whoever else Stevens plugs in beside him. 

As opposed to last season’s relatively turbulent beginning—the Celtics were outscored by 4.0 points per 100 possessions with David Lee on the floor—Stevens won't need another few weeks to solidify his starting lineup, let alone his rotation. Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Johnson and Horford flashed their potential as a devastating five-man unit against the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday, scoring 18 points in the first five minutes. 

Losses Are Gains

Turner and Sullinger are the two rotation players who are gone, but their loss should improve the ugliest segment of last season’s attack: decrepit three-point shooting. 

The Celtics squeezed all they could from Turner's ability to create shots (for himself and others) off the dribble. Nobody else could run Stevens’ offense when Thomas took a seat. But for all the good Turner did, he also shot 24.1 percent behind the three-point line and finished the season with a true shooting percentage that was far below league average (despite it being the highest of his career). The Celtics were more efficient when Turner didn’t play; their assist percentage shot up from 58.5 to 65.6 with him on the bench.

This offensive addition by subtraction also applies to Sullinger. The former Celtics forward made 28.2 percent of his threes last season and 27.6 percent over his four-year career.

In the 459 minutes those two players weren’t on the floor last year, Boston averaged 109.7 points per 100 possessions—the equivalent of a top-three offense—per NBAWowy. Minutes with, say, incoming veteran Gerald Green standing in the weak-side corner should provide more space for the Celtics to bombard opponents with their five-out, spread pick-and-roll attack.

The Celtics still return 12 players from last year’s squad (tied with Denver for most in the league), along with 76.4 percent of their minutes. 

Continuity matters, particularly on a growing, ego-free ecosystem that shouldn’t need much time to jell. Roles aren’t set in stone, but developing prospects such as Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown (three recent first-round picks) will have an opportunity to fill vacuums left behind from last year’s departures.

"We expect our team to be better, and we expect each of the players to be better. We have a lot of guys who are not yet in their prime and moving in that direction," Celtics general manager Danny Ainge said. "There’s some unanswered questions. We lost a couple key guys to our team last year—guys who played a lot of minutes—and there are a lot opportunities for guys to get minutes."

Youth Movement

A pessimist will look at Boston’s youngsters as unproven, and that’s fair. There are a lot of variables here. But Smart should be a better all-around player in 2017 than Turner was in 2016 (FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projections are bullish on Smart's progress), and if typical career arcs are to be taken seriously, it'd be a total shock if the third-year guard shot 25.3 percent from behind the three-point line again. 

Boston’s entire offense will have a completely different dimension if that accuracy bumps up 10 points—a reasonable expectation considering Smart should see more open looks than last year and has burned through miniature hot streaks in the past. It's OK to think last season’s outside shooting was an outlier instead of the norm.

Coming off a scintillating offseason in which he averaged 21 points on 62.1 percent shooting at Las Vegas Summer League, and 19 points and five assists in Salt Lake City, Rozier has a decent chance to become Boston’s backup point guard. His 12 points led Boston in its preseason opener on Tuesday night. Afterward, the second-year guard told reporters he wants that role "so bad," and it’s not hard to envision him handling it for 15 minutes a game. 

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Brown, the incoming third overall pick from June’s draft, has the physical tools Boston sorely needs on the wing: someone who can size up multiple positions and potentially slide in on the defensive end right away. "I think systemically [Brown] is perfect for what we need," Ainge said. 

The Celtics have the size, athleticism, speed, skills, cohesiveness and coaching to hang with any team in the league, and if any of these aforementioned youngsters go above and beyond, the entire team’s postseason expectations will climb even higher. 

Here They Come

"When we get on the court, we’re not that far [from the Cavaliers], but right now, they won a championship, so we’re not that close," Thomas said. "But we know we can compete with everybody in this league, whether it be Cleveland or Golden State—those 'top teams.' We know we’re right there. We just have to put it all together. We know we have a special group."

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Thomas is right to have confidence, thanks to an extremely deep and versatile roster that just added the type of player (Horford) who makes life easier for everybody else on both ends of the floor. His three-point shot adds space, and his reliable interior defense allows perimeter guard dogs to be even more aggressive than they already are.

"[Horford’s rim protection] means we can get up in the ball a little more," Crowder said at a recent Celtics practice. "We can direct the ball where we want it to go even more, knowing we have a defender behind us like Al. He’s talkative. He’s very talkative on D and lets us know what to expect from him."

There’s no matchup or style of play that can blow Boston out of the water so long as Horford is on the floor. The Celtics can stop small lineups while staying big and slow down big lineups while staying small, all while having enough juice to put up points on the other end. 

That doesn’t mean they’re perfect at every position, but Boston’s aforementioned depth, athleticism, youth and comfort level provide a large margin for error. A vast majority of this team is familiar with Stevens’ system, and the learning process should be ironed out by Thanksgiving at the very latest.

"I see so much you can do with this roster. We got size. We got speed. We got athleticism. We got shooting. We got defensive dogs," Green told Bleacher Report. "There’s nothing that we lack in. That’s the scary part. And we’re all young. I think everybody’s young. Everybody’s eager to win. Everybody has a chip on his shoulder."

Injuries will occur, but minor bumps and bruises that break up the starting lineup may unearth a talented cog off the bench who can soak up the experience of battling opposing starters.

"Everybody on our team has a job, and that job is to do their respective roles as well as they can," Stevens said.

Even if their defense stays the same, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Boston offense doesn’t rise from last year’s 13th place. The Celtics don’t yet have enough talent to defeat a healthy Warriors or Cavaliers team in the postseason, but a top-five defense plus a top-10 offense equals a shot at the crown. Once you get to the Eastern Conference Finals, anything can happen. 

Boston Blurbs

Unity Protests and Activism

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In line with a number of NBA teams that have publicly responded to the ongoing civil unrest and conversation around the country, the Celtics crossed arms and held hands in a symbolic display of unity before Tuesday night’s exhibition against the Philadelphia 76ers in Amherst, Massachusetts. The idea was born nearly 60 years ago, when the 1960-61 Celtics posed for this photograph, inspiring the organization’s 2016-17 iteration to take a similar stand.

Before the game, Coach Stevens reflected on how the franchise made a point to express its beliefs in a positive, thoughtful and clear way.

"We’ve had a lot of sit-down discussions about it," Stevens said. "We’ve had a lot of individual discussions. We’ve had three or four meetings as a team, you know, after practices. Sometimes just players, sometimes just us, sometimes people we’ve invited in from the outside to spend time with our guys...I think our guys are really focused on promoting positive unity, togetherness, progress and all of those types of things...and I commend our guys for sharing, for thinking and really looking at this in a really insightful way."

Bradley and Brown

Bradley isn’t known for his court vision, but he dished out a team-high six assists in Boston’s preseason opener, almost all coming on tricky skip passes out of the pick-and-roll. It's something to keep an eye on, especially as Boston looks to replace Turner's playmaking ability.

On Tuesday night, Stevens unleashed Brown at power forward down the stretch, a convenient showcase for why Boston loves his versatility and man-child attributes. The 19-year-old repeatedly attacked larger defenders who weren't quick enough to execute effective closeouts. 

"Yeah, I’m comfortable at the 4. Wherever coach needs me to play, that’s just part of being versatile," Brown said. "That’s just part of versatility...is just being ready when somebody calls your name. You know you're a rookie so you can’t really have no excuses like 'No, I don’t really wanna play the 4.' If he wants to play me at the 4, I’m down."

All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Stats courtesy of NBA.com/Stats unless otherwise noted.