Singapore Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Marina Bay Race
The 15th round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Singapore Grand Prix at the Marina Bay street circuit, where the Red Bull boys are ready to run riot.
Mercedes drivers Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg have dominated F1 for much of the last three seasons, but the Singapore GP promises to be the most unpredictable weekend for some time, with no fewer than three teams thought to be in contention for victory.
With the best chassis on the grid at their disposal, Red Bull are expected to fly on the tight and twisty streets, and both Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo will take full advantage of this rare opportunity.
We've referred to our crystal ball to come up with five predictions for Singapore, with Mercedes, McLaren-Honda's Fernando Alonso and Williams driver Felipe Massa all featuring.
Max Verstappen Will Become the Youngest Polesitter in F1 History
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We should have known this would come eventually.
Verstappen has almost single-handedly made F1 worth watching over the last 18 months, revolutionising the way we think about young drivers and pulling off a range of spectacular overtaking moves along the way.
But such is the fickle nature of this sport that it only took one or two naive comments, and one or two dodgy on-track manoeuvres for the boy wonder—like Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel before him—to become the brat, the driver everyone loves to hate.
Verstappen was rightly vilified for his late change of direction while defending from Kimi Raikkonen in the Belgian GP and his post-race insinuation that the manoeuvre was payback for his first-corner collision with the Ferrari drivers.
Yet the level of criticism directed at the Dutchman and his driving style was far too extreme and insulted the intelligence of Verstappen, who was smart enough to produce a more quietly effective performance at the Italian GP just seven days later.
After a short break, the storm should have passed and Verstappen—the fast learner that he is—should be back to his best in Singapore.
At a venue where youngsters have struggled physically in previous years, Verstappen excelled on his first visit to Marina Bay in 2015, recovering from a slow start to finish eighth and offering a first glimpse of the devil within.
He has struggled at street circuits this season—crashing twice in consecutive days in Monaco and finishing eighth in Azerbaijan—and has outqualified Ricciardo only twice in the 10 races since his promotion to Red Bull.
But as Singapore is almost certain to be Red Bull's last chance to secure a dry-weather pole position in 2016, we're backing Verstappen—with his 19th birthday fast approaching—to become F1's youngest-ever polesitter on Saturday.
And he'll also prove that the darkness and the light go hand in hand.
Daniel Ricciardo Will End His Two-Year Wait for a Win
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Ever since he stood on the steps of the royal box in Monaco, refusing to spray champagne and telling the world he was "screwed" by his own team during the podium interviews, Ricciardo has been waiting for this weekend to come.
Even in the year to forget that was 2015—when he was unable to build on his breakthrough 2014 campaign and his career effectively stalled—he nearly won in Singapore, hounding Vettel all the way from the start line to the chequered flag.
Only two terribly timed safety cars prevented Ricciardo from overtaking his former team-mate in the pit stops that night, but there will be no need to rely on luck this time.
With the finest chassis on the grid and a Renault engine now powerful enough for the team to beat Ferrari and keep Mercedes honest at most circuits—especially the tight and twisty ones—Red Bull should enter the Singapore GP as the favourites for victory.
And Ricciardo, the most consistently brilliant performer of the season, will be the driver to beat.
He will be beaten in qualifying, when Verstappen will claim his maiden pole position and leave the Australian wondering whether yet another opportunity will slip through his grasp.
But Ricciardo will recreate the spirit of Monte Carlo in the race to scrap his way into the lead and secure his first victory since August 2014.
"My time. F--king my time," Ricciardo growled over team radio after securing pole in Monaco, only for Red Bull's strategic and pit errors to deny him a near-certain win.
His time is now.
Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg Will Set the Same Time in Qualifying
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Was it the chassis? The setup? The circuit layout? The track temperatures? The tyres? The tyre pressures?
Or all of the above?
Almost 12 months on, nobody really knows why Mercedes were so far off the pace in the 2015 Singapore GP—where the fastest car in F1 was 1.5 seconds adrift of pole position—which means the Silver Arrows will enter this weekend with a certain amount of trepidation.
Toto Wolff, for instance, told the team's official website that while Mercedes "believe [they] understand why" they performed so badly last year, they are still facing "a big challenge" and would be foolish to regard themselves as "favourites" for the 2016 race.
A team as professional and analytical as Mercedes are simply too sharp to fall for the same trick again and will almost certainly be stronger—if not quite the strongest—this time.
And if they're not, they will be unable to point the finger at Hamilton and Rosberg, both of whom are Singapore specialists of the highest order.
Hamilton has claimed two victories and three pole positions in his eight previous visits to Marina Bay, while Rosberg finished second in 2008 and was in contention to win the 2009 race for Williams before incurring a drive-through penalty for crossing the white line at the pit exit.
Circumstances—Rosberg's wiring-loom issue in 2014 and the 2015 mystery—have prevented the Mercedes drivers from scrapping in the streets since the team became F1's dominant force, so here's hoping the championship protagonists will finally have a straight Singapore shootout this weekend.
After being separated by 0.007 seconds in qualifying two years ago, Hamilton and an increasingly confident Rosberg will get even closer by setting the exact same time in qualifying before continuing their battle in the race.
A Lucky Safety Car Will Allow Fernando Alonso to Beat the Ferraris
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As the race weekend approaches, perhaps the biggest question mark hanging over the Singapore GP is just where Ferrari will fit into the mix.
Vettel's flawless pole-to-flag victory in the 2015 race is still fresh in the memory, and the four-time world champion should never be discounted at Marina Bay, where he is more comfortable than any other driver in terms of playing dare with the walls.
Yet Ferrari no longer inspire the same confidence they did a year ago and—even though they regard Singapore as "their best chance of a win" in 2016, per Sky Sports' Ted Kravitz—the SF16-H car's weakness with traction could hurt them on all those slow, 90-degree corners.
At best, Ferrari should aim to displace Mercedes as Red Bull's closest challengers and, at worst, hope to keep the chasing pack behind.
As reported by ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson, Alonso is convinced McLaren-Honda can end 2016 as the third-best outfit on the grid, arguing his team should be "just behind Red Bull"—or, in other words, just ahead of Ferrari—at four of the remaining seven grands prix.
Among the events targeted by the two-time world champion are Japan, the United States, Abu Dhabi and, of course, Singapore, where he has claimed no fewer than five podium finishes—including two victories—in the past.
Although the MP4-31 chassis is now among the best on the grid, Honda's fuel-consumption frailties will be pushed to the extreme at Marina Bay, where the 61-lap race often comes close to the two-hour time limit.
If Alonso is to hit his target this weekend, he will need several safety-car stoppages to give his power unit some valuable respite, and we reckon F1's wily ol' fox will exploit the variables to finish in the top five and ahead of both Vettel and Raikkonen.
Expect Alonso to once again tell everyone he has no regrets about leaving Ferrari after the race.
Felipe Massa Will Spin at the Infamous 'Crashgate' Corner
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As he announced his retirement from F1 on the eve of the Italian GP, Massa couldn't resist having one last dig at those involved in the "Crashgate" scandal.
The Brazilian, you'll recall, was comfortably leading the opening stages of the inaugural Singapore GP in 2008 when Nelson Piquet Jr. intentionally spun and crashed at Turn 17, bringing out the safety car.
That allowed Alonso, his Renault team-mate, to win the race while Massa—having been in such a strong position—finished a distant 13th after pulling away from his Ferrari pit box with the fuel hose still attached, ultimately losing the championship by a single point.
In his retirement statement on Motorsport.com, Massa was describing the emotions of his decision to walk away from the sport and his progression from karting to a Ferrari seat when he suddenly broke off to have another one of his mini-rants about that race.
"The worst moment of my career," was how he referred to Singapore 2008, explaining it was "more difficult to accept" than if he had lost the title as a result of "a driver error or a team problem."
"What [really] happened in Singapore I learned much later, and it pained me much more," he added.
Clearly the events of 2008 still leave Massa with a bitter taste and Marina Bay—where he has never finished higher than fifth—will be one of those circuits he will be glad to see the back of when he hangs up his helmet in November.
Incidents at Turn 17 are rare—which makes you wonder why Piquet chose that particular spot to do the deed—but it would cement Massa's hatred of the place if he were to have a similar spin at some point during his final visit to Singapore.
It would add even more insult to the injury sustained eight years ago.
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