Draymond Green's Suspension Changes Everything for Warriors, Cavaliers in Game 5

Draymond Green does everything for the Golden State Warriors, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that his suspension for Game 5 of the NBA Finals changes everything.

The NBA handed down a one-game timeout because Green accumulated four postseason flagrant-foul points, with the latest coming in a Game 4 entanglement with LeBron James, per Sports Illustrated:

Green's play, defined by fiery competitiveness and on-the-edge intensity, finally burned too hot. And whatever you think of his motives in the following clip, the optics of his playoff hip tosses and groin kicks warranted some action:

So here we are. Monday's Game 5, thought to be a formality with Golden State returning home and the beleaguered Cleveland Cavaliers struggling to survive, is suddenly loaded with intrigue.

Golden State's Side

Here's the simplest expression of just how much Green means to Golden State, per Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin (via NBA.com):

The only Warriors player whose absence from the court creates a bigger Finals deficit is Andre Iguodala. Through Game 4, the Cavs have smashed Golden State by 13.7 points per 100 possessions with the veteran stopper on the bench.

Yes, the Warriors will lose Green's ability to push the pace on defensive rebounds, and they'll miss his general tenacity and passing. But it's on the defensive end where the adjustments will have to be most significant. 

Without Green, Iguodala will certainly play more. He may even start, which is something head coach Steve Kerr tends to reserve for emergencies.

Green's suspension qualifies as one of those, though, because he's the key to virtually every effective Warriors lineup. Against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State couldn't have survived without Green battling hulking bigs Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. Against Cleveland, Green's utility as a small-ball center in the vaunted Death Lineup unlocks the Warriors' speediest, scariest gear.

With Cleveland utilizing LeBron James at power forward more and more as the series continues, the Warriors' need for Green as a rim-protector who can also keep up with the Cavs' athleticism has only increased.

Just look at the way he darts in from nowhere to blow up plays at the basket, via Basketball Forever:

And note here how he charges down from above the foul line to prevent an easy close-range bucket:

Without Green patrolling the lane as a helper, Golden State will have to rely on conventional bigs. Obviously, the Warriors still believe in Andrew Bogut, as he continues to start at center despite his limited mobility and offensive shakiness. When Bogut is at his best, he's an elite rim-protector who can change games by himself for short stretches.

Game 2 provided perfect evidence of that:

But the Warriors lose their true defensive identity with Bogut or any other traditional big in the game. They can't switch five positions, and they have to defend Cleveland's pick-and-roll attacks conventionally. That means Bogut dropping deep into the lane to contain Kyrie Irving's drives instead of Green switching out aggressively (and often blowing the play up before it even starts).

Irving has shown tons of burst and off-the-dribble confidence in the Finals. With the operating space created by Bogut's drop-down defense, he can get almost wherever he wants. He did exactly that to start Game 3, Cleveland's lone win so far.

When Bogut is a step slow in the pick-and-roll or during any other backside help rotation, Cleveland can get into its tic-tac-toe passing attack—which generates the open looks from long range it feasted on during the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Without Green, the Warriors lose their least conventional, most effective defensive weapon.

On the other end, the changes may not be so pronounced.

Cleveland has done well to keep the Warriors out of the high pick-and-roll action they run with Stephen Curry and Green. Using James as Green's primary defender, the Cleveland superstar's ability to switch and stay in front of Curry has erased the two-man traps against which Golden State typically excels.

Green, receiving the pass from Curry and heading downhill in a four-on-three attack, is a nightmare. But the Cavs have cut most of that out of Golden State's offense, forcing the high screens to come from the likes of Bogut, who doesn't do nearly as much damage as a roller.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Warriors should start Iguodala and hope he and Harrison Barnes can do enough to compete on the glass. But without Green, they'll have to play virtually the entire game with either Bogut or Festus Ezeli manning the middle.

The most effective part of Golden State's small lineup is the defensive versatility and chaos Green brings. Everything—the steals, the runouts and the threes on the other end—starts there.

Without Green, the Death Lineup is dead.

Cleveland's Side

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

This is exactly the kind of thing that could breathe life into a Cavs team so badly suffocated by Green, a 3-1 hole and the encroaching feeling of Warriors fatalism.

Now, Cleveland's options for survival in Game 5 expand exponentially; It can do almost whatever it wants strategically, and its rotation options are all available.

If the Cavs want to play smaller, leaving James in Kevin Love's starting power forward spot, they can do it with impunity. Because while it's true Iguodala will still be James' primary defender, nobody but Green matches LBJ's combination of strength and speed.

Remember: Iguodala is the guy hounding James on the perimeter—swiping at steals and moving his feet to cut off drives. But when James invariably gets into the lane anyway, it's usually Green who's there to offer the last (highly effective) line of defense.

Bogut's help rotations have often been too slow, and Ezeli's anticipation just isn't developed enough. Don't count on Marreese Speights, James Michael McAdoo or Anderson Varejao to bother James at the rim, either.

It's often said that playing small against Golden State is a death sentence, but that's only true when Green's out there. He's the key; Without him, the Cavaliers can downsize and expect to get looks in the lane all night.

We shouldn't ever see the Warriors playing two conventional bigs, something they haven't done with any frequency since former head coach Mark Jackson trotted out David Lee and Bogut as his starters two years ago. That means foul trouble for Iguodala and Barnes will be critical. And given the way Cleveland has attacked the Warriors whenever key players have fouled their way into jeopardy, the Cavs will repeatedly be on the offensive.

Better still for Cleveland, it can play bigger lineups and look to further dominate the glass. Tristan Thompson has been a force on the boards all series, but now there will be opportunities for Love and even James to leverage their size underneath.

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Barnes is a capable rebounder, but asking him to battle Cleveland's larger forwards for an entire game is tough. And his general inability to exploit bigger defenders on the other end means the Cavs shouldn't shy away from using Love liberally.

The Upshot

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The Warriors can still eliminate the Cavs and win a ring Monday.

They're at home, where they're all but invincible. They still have the unanimous MVP's potential for brilliance, Klay Thompson's game-changing shooting, Iguodala's stifling defense and the extra motivation that can sometimes stem from playing at less than full strength.

As Thompson noted, the team will be motivated to pick up the slack in Green's absence, per Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated:

But Golden State has played only one game without Green this season, and it lost.

To the Denver Nuggets.

That's about as persuasive as one-game samples get.

Green is the fulcrum of the Warriors' terrifying defense and the key to the team's most overwhelming lineups. Beating Cleveland without him will be an immense challenge, and if it happens, won't occur in the fashion of so many other Warriors wins this year—wins Green's versatility and grit turned into unfair fights.

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