NFL Playoff Picture 2016: Examining Latest Scenarios and Top Bracket Busters

NFL fans clamoring for parity will regret it. The 2016 postseason offers uncertainty at every turn—but mostly because the field is largely lackluster.

While it's possible the AFC ends with one last battle between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning (or Brock Osweiler), both the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are incredibly flawed top seeds.

The Patriots have lost two straight games and have no healthy offensive players left, and the Broncos are the least convincing No. 1 seed in quite some time. Not only have they already lost to both wild-card competitors, they concluded the season with a lower point differential (plus-59) than the eliminated New York Jets (plus-73).

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals went from Super Bowl favorites to getting trounced by 30 points in their final regular-season game against Seattle. No underdogs will defy the odds this postseason. They can't. There's no Goliath to slay.

If both No. 6 seeds make the Super Bowl, it would represent a probable outcome rather than a stunning turn of events.

With the division winners all nursing vulnerabilities (and injuries), all of the wild cards enter the 12-team tournament as viable title contenders. Don't be surprised when they make home-field advantage moot this weekend.

Top Bracket Busters

Kansas City Chiefs

Winners of 10 straight, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Texas to face the 9-7 Houston Texans. Even as the lower seed embarking on a road game, the Chiefs are early three-point favorites, per Odds Shark.

Since their 1-5 start, they have yielded 12.8 points per contest. The schedule is partially responsible for Kansas City's steep turnaround. After losing to four playoff-bound teams earlier in the season, they haven't faced anyone with a winning record since topping the Broncos in Week 10. 

Their No. 9-ranked passing defense has submitted 47 sacks, five behind the NFL-leading Broncos. Yet their ferocious pass rush enters the playoffs on shaky ground. While they're hoping to get linebacker Justin Houston back, they could play without Dee Ford, per NFL Network's Albert Breer:

With New England's offensive line in shambles, a healthy Chiefs front seven represents a nightmarish matchup. The two franchises' last meeting, on Sept. 21, 2014, sparked this gem from ESPN's Trent Dilfer regarding the eventual Super Bowl champions.

Kansas City's cautious offense surrendered 15 takeaways all season, the NFL's second-lowest tally behind New England's 14. Turnovers often fluctuate, but quarterback Alex Smith has made a career of protecting the football. 

In a messy and eroding AFC, the Chiefs harness realistic chances of making the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

The Seattle Seahawks are the NFC's No. 6 seed, but they also may be the best team in the NFL.

Before Week 17, the Cardinals held a strong claim to that distinction. Then the Seahawks destroyed them on the road, preparing for their postseason away from CenturyLink Field. Elias Sports Bureau noted the rarity of such an elite team getting dismantled:

Seattle entered the final weekend No. 2 behind Arizona in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). But the final weekend pushed it to the top spot for the fourth consecutive season. FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings also place the Seahawks No. 1, but the Panthers have the highest probability (20 percent) of winning the Super Bowl.

Seattle surrendered the fewest points per game (17.3) for the fourth straight year. As the defense again peaked down the stretch, the offense has also joined the fun.

During the final eight games, the team averaged 32 points per contest. Russell Wilson threw 25 touchdowns, 12 to wide receiver Doug Baldwin, during the final half of the regular season. ESPN's Ed Werder highlighted the duo's noteworthy efficiency:

Usually taking a back seat, Seattle's passing offense has sizzled. The ground game has struggled in recent weeks without running backs Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls, but the team's Twitter account relayed encouraging news regarding the veteran rusher.

The Seahawks have already bested the Minnesota Vikings on the road, limiting them to 125 total yards during Week 13's 38-7 triumph. They're poised to do it again and set up a Week 6 rematch with Carolina, who persevered with a 27-23 win in Seattle. Look for the winner to face Arizona in the NFC Championship Game/de facto Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have recently defeated the two squads blocking their path to the AFC Championship Game. Pittsburgh beat the Cincinnati Bengals 33-20 in Week 14, the game in which quarterback Andy Dalton fractured his thumb. The following week, Pittsburgh pummeled Denver's top defense in a 34-27 victory.

Pundits have spent weeks describing the Steelers as the dangerous team nobody wants to face, and the Jets' loss to Buffalo on Sunday gave Pittsburgh a chance to realize those premonitions.

The AFC's top offense, however, stalled during two underwhelming outings against the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. And yes, 349 passing yards and three touchdowns from Ben Roethlisberger can still qualify as subpar, given his two Week 17 interceptions.

More importantly, the Steelers compiled 30 rushing yards after losing DeAngelo Williams early. The 32-year-old running back, who registered 1,274 total yards and 11 touchdowns replacing Le'Veon Bell, is now uncertain for Saturday night's bash with the Bengals due to an ankle injury.

“It definitely hurts you [if Williams is out],” Roethlisberger told Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “He is such a weapon for us. You saw it today. He caught a couple of checkdowns and made something happen. Good blocker. Good runner, even if the yards weren’t there today. He’s definitely an integral part of our offense.”

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

This feels eerily similar to last year, when the Steelers lost a Wild Card Round matchup to the Baltimore Ravens with the recently signed Ben Tate as their starting running back. Then again, Williams mustered 26 rushing yards on 14 carries during Pittsburgh's win over Denver. But they have enough weapons to bludgeon opponents through the air.

After spending years mocking Andy Dalton's playoff struggles, Bengals fans will cross their fingers for his return. Cincinnati is limping into the postseason, splitting their final eight games with losses to the Texans, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos. As a result, Pittsburgh is also a road favorite, according to Odds Shark. 

If the Steelers expel their AFC North foe, they could become a rare No. 6 seed expected to knock off a No. 1 seed on the road.