NASCAR at Chicagoland 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for MyAFibRisk.com 400

After the way last season’s spectacular Chase for the Sprint Cup played out, will the second edition of the new format be equally spectacular in 2015.

Or, shall we dare to say that as good as last season’s Chase was, this season’s has the potential to be even more exciting?

Last year, with the revised format, teams kind of had to feel their way through the season, not really knowing what to expect.

But this year, and with one revised Chase under their belts, don’t be surprised to see greater strategy, increased chances of gambling and, in essence, drivers and teams picking their spots better than they did last season.

Here’s how this Sunday’s Chase opener, the MyAFibRisk.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway, shapes up.

By the Numbers: Chicagoland Speedway

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Kevin Harvick won the first two Sprint Cup races at Chicagoland Speedway in 2001 and 2002.

MyAFibRisk.com 400

Place: Chicagoland Speedway

Date: Sunday, Sept. 20

Time: 3 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBCSN, 2 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles (1.5-mile oval))

Defending winner: Brad Keselowski won last year’s Chase opener at Chicago for the second time in three years. He also won in Septembetr 2012 as he began his run up to his first career Sprint Cup championship.

Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on July 12, 2008 (23 years, two months, 10 days)

Oldest winner: Mark Martin on July 11, 2009 (50 years, six months, two days)

Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on Sept. 15, 2013, (23 years, three months, 22 days)

Oldest pole winner: Matt Kenseth on Sept. 19, 2011, (39 years, six months, nine days)

Most wins: all-time and active—Tony Stewart (three)

Most poles: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (two)

Most top fives: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart (eight each)

Most top 10s: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart (10 each)

Lead lap finishes: Kevin Harvick (12)

Laps completed: all-time and active—Matt Kenseth (3,737)

Laps led: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (577)

Most race starts at Chicagoland: all-time and active—Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Joe Nemechek (14 each)

Race record: David Reutimann (145.138) on July 10, 2010

Qualifying record: Joey Logano (189.414 mph) on Sept. 15, 2013

Best average start: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (7.615)

Best average finish: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (9.154)

TRACK NOTES:

• Total number of races at Chicagoland: 14
• Total number of different pole winners in Chicago history: 11
• Races won from pole: 1
• Last race won from pole: Kyle Busch on July 12, 2008
• Number of race winners at Chicagoland: 10
• DNFs (most): all-time and active—Mike Bliss and Joe Nemechek (six each)
• DNFs (least): all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (zero in 14 starts) 

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

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Will the real Jeff Gordon please stand up

After a fairly nondescript first 26 races, now is the time for Jeff Gordon to make some major moves if he hopes to end his final season as a racer with that elusive fifth Sprint Cup championship. Gordon’s last title seems like forever, and in a way, it is: 14 years ago in 2001.

Granted, the Chase format was different back then, but Tony Stewart qualified for the 2011 Chase without winning a race and unexpectedly he went on to win five of the 10 Chase races, capped off by earning his third championship. If Stewart can do something like that, why can’t Gordon?

OK, you made the Chase. Now what?

This year’s Chase has two first-time Chase combatants: veteran drivers Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard. Even though he failed to win a race in the first 26, McMurray made the Chase fairly convincingly by driving consistently and earning equally consistent finishes. Menard also failed to win a race in the first 26, and to compound issues, he barely made the Chase by a mere 17 points. He has to substantially pick up his game in the first round of three races, lest there won’t be a second round for him.

Extra motivation for Bowyer

Bowyer has added incentive to go for the championship in a way he never has before: Not only does he want to win it for himself (which would be his first career Sprint Cup title), but he also wants to win it for the 217 employees of Michael Waltrip Racing who will lose their jobs at the end of the season when MWR shuts its doors for good. This has the potential to be one of the best feel-good stories NASCAR has had in a long time, but can Bowyer rise to the occasion in a season that, to date, has been fairly mediocre at best?

How will Joe Gibbs Racing fare as a whole?

JGR is the only Sprint Cup organization that qualified all four of its drivers for the Chase. But that is no guarantee that any of those four—Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth—will win the Chase, either.

Look at last season: Hendrick Motorsports qualified all four of its drivers in the Chase, and still that wasn’t enough to win it all. You have to admit, JGR has been arguably the hottest organization thus far in Sprint Cup this season. Can it continue its dominance when it matters the most? Time will tell.

Potential spoilers

Even though every driver who failed to qualify for the Chase will not be able to finish any higher than 17th at season’s end, they still have potential motivation in the remaining 10 races. What better place for a non-Chase driver and team to earn one of the biggest highlights of its season than to be a spoiler by either winning a race or potentially finishing high enough to knock a Chase driver from advancing to the next round.

Keep your eyes on guys such as Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, David Ragan and Austin Dillon. They could potentially wreak some havoc on the Chasers if they get the opportunity.

Drivers to Watch

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Paul Menard

The Wisconsin driver made the Chase by a mere 17-point margin. It’s the first time Menard has ever qualified for the Chase. But now is when the real hard work begins: finding a way to make it through the first round and advancing to the second.

He’ll likely have a big contingent of friends and family on hand. But one thing brings about concern: He’s won just one race in his Sprint Cup career. And if he didn’t win any in the first 26 races this season, how can he expect to reach Victory Lane in the toughest part of the season?

Kurt Busch

Things are starting to go well for the older Busch brother both on and off the race track. He’s the original Chase winner, winning the first championship in 2004. While he’s had several highs and lows this season, Busch is known for ratcheting up his game once the playoffs begin. Chicago is his adopted second home, and winning there would not only be a great achievement, but it would also automatically put him into the second round. That’s good enough incentive for anyone.

Denny Hamlin

I have to admit Hamlin did an excellent job last Saturday at Richmond, five days after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee. While he entered and exited his race car somewhat gingerly, the ACL issue was essentially a non-issue for him. But what about the variety of tracks in the Chase, starting with a track that was twice as long as Richmond. And let’s not forget places such as Talladega and the high speeds of Texas.

If Hamlin can once again do well Sunday, I’m willing to put aside much of my concern about whether he can keep both his Chase hopes and his knee together for the next 10 weeks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Although I’ve received some criticism about giving Earnhardt just 50-50 odds to advance past the first round of the Chase, he’s had a good season to date. But has he had a potentially championship season? Sorry, but I’m not sold as of yet.

I would love to see Junior finally win that elusive first career Sprint Cup championship, but he just doesn’t seem to have some of the magic he had last season. He has a decent record at Chicagoland, and what better way to make some magic in the Chase than to win Sunday?

Martin Truex Jr.

In the first third of the season, only one driver was hotter and more consistent than Truex, namely, defending series champ Kevin Harvick. Can Truex regain some of that early-season momentum and go deeper into the Chase than he ever has? I think it’s possible, for sure. But the biggest key is to get off to as good of a start in the Chase as he possibly can.

A win would assure automatic advancement to the next round, but Truex shouldn’t take any unnecessary risks for a win if simple consistency may be a safer way to not only finish, but to also advance to the next round short of winning a race.

Favorites

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Kevin Harvick

This is where it’s going to get interesting for Kevin Harvick. After leading 24 of the first 26 weeks of the regular season, he starts the Chase only a few points back in fourth place. With two wins and 10 runner-up finishes in the first 26 races, consistency has been Harvick’s hallmark, just like it was last season. It may be a bit premature to pick Harvick as the undisputed favorite to win a second straight championship, but he’s the guy I’m keeping my eye on.

Kyle Busch

After all that he’s endured this season, now is Kyle Busch’s time to prove he can finally win that elusive first Sprint Cup championship. Busch started the season with a devastating wreck at Daytona, only to rehabilitate and return behind the wheel just 11 weeks later.

But proving he could come back wasn’t enough: He went on to win four races and made it into the top 30 in the points, thus making him eligible for the Chase. Anything less than a championship—given all he’s done to get himself back to this point—would be a shame.

Jimmie Johnson

Can the six-time Sprint Cup champion earn a seventh title in 2015, tying him for NASCAR’s record of most championships by a driver with Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt? Granted, Johnson is tied for the most wins thus far this season with Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch (four each), but he could potentially have perhaps his most difficult bid for that elusive seventh championship.

He recently re-signed with both Hendrick Motorsports and primary sponsor Lowe’s, so he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. With that kind of job security, his only agenda going forward is another championship—if not an eighth, ninth or maybe even 10th crown.

Matt Kenseth

The Wisconsin native is red-hot heading into the Chase, having won three of the last six races and has earned four victories overall in 2015. But it’s too early to say he’s going to go all the way and win his second career championship. Remember when he won a series-leading seven races in 2013, only to fall short of the championship? Of course, that was a different Chase format, but the principle is the same.

Kasey Kahne

Granted, Kasey Kahne fell short of making the Chase, but we don’t have to make every driver we pick as a favorite be in the current Chase. Kahne typically does well on 1.5-mile tracks like Chicago, and with the prospect of finishing no higher than 17th, what else is there left for Kahne in terms of incentive than to be a potential spoiler.

Remember when Tony Stewart won three races in the Chase after failing to qualify for it in 2006, one year after earning his second of three Cup championships? It could be the same situation for Kahne.

Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson

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I’m going to pick Kyle Larson for the second week in a row.

I thought for sure he’d finally earn the first Sprint Cup race of his career this past Saturday at Richmond, but once again he fell short.

Sooner or later, Larson is going to win that elusive first race, and with five of the next 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks, the odds would appear with him that if and when he earns win No. 1, it’ll be on a track like Chicagoland, Kansas, Charlotte, Homestead or Texas.

And the Winner Is: Brad Keselowski

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Brad Keselowski has won two of the last three Chase openers at Chicagoland.

That includes his emotional triumph over Jimmie Johnson in 2012, which proved to be the linchpin that sent Keselowski on to that season’s championship.

Admittedly, Keselowski has been somewhat quiet performance-wise this season, but he’s an old-school driver.

And if there’s any part of the season that he gets up the most for, it’s the Chase.

I won’t go so far as to predict Keselowski will do the same thing as 2012 by winning Sunday and go all the way from that point.

But he knows his way around Chicagoland, and if he can hold off likely strong challenges from Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth, he should reach Victory Lane yet again.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski