Al-Farouq Aminu Is Suddenly a Key Player in Dallas Mavericks' Offseason
The Dallas Mavericks have almost an entire roster of outgoing free agents this summer, none more intriguing than Al-Farouq Aminu.
With Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis hitting free agency, it would be silly to suggest that Aminu is at the top of the Mavs' wish list. Dallas first has to either reach middle ground with its two starters or find replacements for them before it even addresses Aminu. But keeping him should be a close second priority.
A Work Who's Progressing
When Aminu joined the Mavericks last summer on a league-minimum deal, he was a rejected diamond in the rough. The New Orleans Pelicans hadn't managed to uncork his potential, and Dallas hoped that head coach Rick Carlisle could change that.
The Nigerian forward's season was a little rocky. He was in and out of the rotation at Carlisle's mercy, until he finally broke out and secured consistent minutes in late-January. With Dallas' roster depleted by injuries, he was even able to start in two games during the postseason and played out of his mind.
He remains a little rough offensively, although he's progressed on that end. Aminu shot just 27.4 percent from deep, and his jumper remains shaky. However, he hustles on the offensive glass and has shown significant improvement in the ball-handling department. He won't cross anyone over, but he can now comfortably put the ball on the floor and attack open space.
If Aminu would be able to shoot at least 35 percent from three-point range, he'd likely be looking at a contract somewhere in the range of $10 million-$12 million per year. That's in huge part due to his extraordinary defense, and that would put him in line with versatile wings like DeMarre Carroll.
He has always had the physical tools to be a lockdown defender, but he really put it together this season and was at his best in the playoffs. Aminu can competently guard four positions. Carlisle put him on post-up bruisers like LaMarcus Aldridge and speed demons like James Harden, and pretty much every player type in between.
Aminu had his fair share of highlight-worthy chase-down blocks this season, and his timing and athleticism on weak-side rotations allowed Dallas to utilize small lineups with Aminu as the designated rim protector. The fact that he can contest shots at the rim, make swift rotations and also stay in front of elite slashers is mind-blowing. Just take a look at this possession from the playoffs:
The Houston Rockets ran a post-up for Dwight Howard on that particular play. Aminu came over to show a double-team and then quickly recovered on the kick-out to Harden, making the runner-up MVP force a tough shot.
His basic statistics aren't mesmerizing, but anyone who watched the games realizes how impactful Aminu was in his minutes. The advanced statistics also back this up, as Alan Smithee of MavsMoneyball.com summed up:
"In terms of defensive real plus-minus, Aminu ranked sixth in the league at his position, finally capitalizing on his elite length, quickness and leaping ability. Aminu was asked to guard every position on the court with the exception of center, and demonstrated lockdown potential as a man defender.
Even better, Aminu has become one of the best help defenders and defensive playmakers the Mavericks have had in years, as his block-rate led all small forwards, and his steal rate was fifth among small forwards.
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Chandler Parsons is the future small forward for the Mavericks, and Dirk Nowitzki isn't going anywhere just yet. That means Aminu would have to come back into a similar role next season. He'd have to settle for somewhere around 20 minutes per game, coming off the bench in effective stints. He probably wouldn't mind that, assuming he receives a hefty raise.
Can Dallas Keep Him?
Aminu is an excellent glue guy, and his combo forward skill set provides the Mavericks with a ton of versatility. However, his improvement on both ends also comes at a higher price tag.
Teams might not necessarily line up to land his services, but he certainly won't go unnoticed in free agency like he did last summer. Playoff teams that are over the cap and in need of versatility on the wing will likely consider throwing the mid-level exception Aminu's way. The Miami Heat are pretty thin there, and they could be a nice fit.
Ellis will most likely opt out of his deal to look for bigger money. With Aminu also opting out, the Mavericks will have plenty of room. Even if they pick up the team option on Dwight Powell and keep Bernard James at the qualifying offer, they'll have around $34.7 million in salary commitments for 2015-16, according to HoopsHype.com's numbers.
If Dallas renounces all its cap holds, that would leave a little over $30 million of room to fill out the roster, assuming the cap stays around $67 million. Realistically, the Mavs can't do that, though. They first need to secure a big body in the middle, and it appears as though it will either be DeAndre Jordan or Tyson Chandler.
If Jordan decides he wants to leave the Clippers, Dallas is reportedly one of his preferable destinations. If he was to join the team, a sign-and-trade sending Chandler the other way is an option that is on the table, per ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon:
"However, Jordan intends to consider all of his options and has privately made it clear that he’s highly intrigued by the possibility of coming to Dallas as a featured attraction for the Mavs.
A sign-and-trade swap of the centers, which has been mentioned in Mavs front-office offseason brainstorming sessions, would make a lot of sense for all of the involved parties
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If Jordan was to land in Dallas, his contract would likely eat up more than half of the Mavericks' available cap space. They would then need to either re-sign Ellis or find a suitable replacement for him in the $10 million range, leaving very little money for potential reserves.
Landing Jordan would be the Mavericks' dream scenario in free agency. But Dallas would have to find a starting point guard as well, which would probably mean that Aminu would slip away to another team.
Dallas would have the upper hand in negotiations with the Clippers, and would most likely attach Raymond Felton's expiring contract in any sign-and-trade deal. That would free up an extra $4.5 million to spend, but it's uncertain whether that would be enough after a new starting point guard is found.
If the Mavs don't land Jordan, there is a possibility Aminu could be retained. If Chandler comes back at a discount and the Mavs carefully spend their money, it wouldn't be impossible to craft out enough room for Aminu.
The cap is set to rise massively in 2016-17, and a long-term deal for Aminu at around $5 million per year could appear as a bargain when the environment changes. However, whether he has a future with the team will depend on how the Mavs fare in their hunt for another superstar this summer.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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