Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, AFC Championship Pick

The New England Patriots are 17-1 straight up and 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 home games. That bodes well for their Super Bowl chances, as they get to host the AFC Championship Game this Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.

However, Indy just pulled off a playoff upset on the road, knocking off Peyton Manning and Denver. Can the Colts pull off another one and make their first Super Bowl with Andrew Luck?

That would buck a playoff trend between these teams that has seen the home team win and cover four times and would also extend New England’s ugly 0-5 against-the-spread streak in AFC title games.

AFC Championship Game point spread

The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer

36.8-29.5 Patriots

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts just dominated the Broncos in Denver in a divisional-round game, winning 24-13 as nine-point road underdogs. Indy spotted the Broncos the first touchdown of the game and then methodically took control, moving the chains on offense, making stops on defense and eventually winning time of possession by a 34-26 margin.

The Colts are now 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their last eight games, and they've won their two playoff games by a combined score of 50-23. Indy is also 3-2 both SU and ATS with Luck in the postseason. The Colts ran for 114 yards against Cincinnati in the wild-card victory and for 99 yards against Denver.

If they can do something similar this week and keep the Patriots offense off the field for as long as possible, they could make this one interesting.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just outlasted Baltimore 35-31 in the divisional round, exorcising their Ravens playoff demon after Baltimore knocked New England out of the playoffs two seasons ago. The Pats twice rallied from two touchdowns down, finally taking the lead on a Tom Brady touchdown pass with five minutes to go and then getting the game-saving interception from Duron Harmon in the end zone.

New England ran for only 14 yards in the game, but Brady threw for 367 yards and three scores, and the Pats came up with a couple of tricks to produce points, including a Julian Edelman-to-Danny Amendola touchdown connection and a variation of the tackle-eligible play.

New England is now 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games that have actually meant something. But they are also just 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008, according to Odds Shark’s NFL trends database.

Smart pick

New England is the perennial contender in this matchup, while this version of Indianapolis is the upstart trying to make a name for itself as an NFL power.

Both teams are led by marquee quarterbacks, but they have similar flaws in that neither runs the ball well. That will matter if weather makes it difficult to throw the ball.

In this spot, the Patriots seem the more likely team to win that battle. The Colts beat Denver, but they did so against a gimpy Peyton Manning, not a healthy Tom Brady.

So the smart choice here is with the home team, minus the points.

Betting trends

• The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in the AFC title game since 2005 (2-3 SU).
• The home team won and covered four prior playoff meetings between the Colts and the Pats.
• The Pats are 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008.
• The past six meetings between the Colts and the Pats played over the total.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.