Saints' Sean Payton Should Enter Next Season on the Hot Seat

No head coach in the NFL is untouchable. Eventually all of them will be fired or dismissed, or teams will find news ways to describe a "mutual parting of ways."  

Four years after winning Super Bowl XLIV, Sean Payton's status as the head coach of the New Orleans Saints should come into question after the team came up short in the embarrassingly weak NFC South this season. 

A 7-9 campaign after four straight playoff appearances shouldn't be enough to call Payton's standing into question. However, it's how this season progressed with one glaring trend during his tenure that makes Payton's future with the team questionable. 

The Saints' start with a newfound inability to win at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. 

The venue was once considered an impregnable fortress in the Saints' favor against opponents. At the very least, New Orleans laid claim to one of the best home-field advantages in all of professional sports. 

During Payton's previous seven seasons on the sidelines, the Saints won 73.2 percent of the time at home. In the previous two regular seasons Payton was the team's head coach—sans the 2012 campaign due to the bounty scandal suspension—the Saints were 16-0 when playing at the Superdome.

Opponents didn't travel to New Orleans with high expectations of emerging with a victory. 

That advantage dissipated in 2014 for no discernible reason.

The Saints started this past year's home slate on a positive note. With wins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, expectations started to build. The victory over the Packers was particularly impressive, because Green Bay won four straight games before traveling to New Orleans. 

Those expectations fell flat the next time the Saints returned home. 

With a 4-4 overall record with wins over the Packers and Panthers in consecutive weeks, the Saints were expected to take control of the relatively weak NFC South during a three-game homestand. Instead, Payton's squad lost all three games. 

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It was an opportunity to take command of the division and ride another strong home showing into a playoff run. An overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers, a blowout against the Cincinnati Bengals and a discouraging late-game effort versus the Baltimore Ravens became the crux of the Saints' season, and it was spiraling out of control. 

The team had time to regroup, though. 

At 5-7 overall, the Saints were still in contention for the NFC South. Two home games against the rival Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons remained. New Orleans lost those two contests by the combined score of 71-24. The Saints played their worst at home with their playoff lives on the line. 

Those performances are unacceptable even if the team is 79-48 overall under the current coach's direction. 

Payton echoed that exact sentiment during his postseason press conference, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett: 

"

Listen, let’s not kid ourselves. Yeah, we were a play or two away from winning a few of those games, and yet that repeated itself a handful of times. The year before, we were a play or two from potentially losing a few games, and we didn’t. Now, does a team gain some success from some tough early wins? Yeah, absolutely. But I think our ability to finish, that would be one thing that wasn’t present this year, that wasn’t consistently good enough.

"

For the Saints to be successful based on the way the team is currently comprised, the organization is required to win the bulk of its home games. The Superdome is advantageous, because Payton's offense can be most effective in an indoor atmosphere and on a fast track. 

The team was incapable of being effective at home in 2014, and it reflects directly on the team's coaching staff. 

Payton provided an introspective look Friday, per Triplett, at the team's mindset as it enters the offseason: 

"

Listen, it stinks losing. Honestly, there’s a pit in your stomach, you know. I hate it. It’s because so much time and energy is put into that upcoming season and the process. And really, it’s one thing to be removed from the process for a year without any control. But to be in this position here, having this meeting on the eve of the week of the first round of the playoffs, it’s been a while. And it’s not something that you want to experience again. And it’s something that drives you, fuels your fire, if you will. And there’s nothing worse. It’s a bad feeling. 

"

The biggest thorn in Payton's side remains the team's defense. While the head coach directs the offense, inconsistency plagues the other side of the ball. 

Rob Ryan is the Saints' fourth different defensive coordinator since Payton took over as the team's head coach. After a one-year reclamation project, the Saints once again fell into the depths of the NFL's defensive statistics in 2014. 

Year	Total Defense	Rank	Points per game	Rank
2006	307.3	11th	20.1	13th
2007	348.1	26th	24.2	25th
2008	339.5	23rd	24.6	26th
2009	357.8	25th	21.3	20th
2010	306.2	4th	19.2	7th
2011	368.4	24th	21.2	13th
2013	305.7	4th	19.0	4th
2014	384.0	31st	26.5	28th

The inconsistency of the defense continues to hold back an explosive offensive team. The overall lack of improvement from year to year is perplexing.

For example, Ryan is known for his exotic looks and blitzes. However, the Saints were unable to duplicate last season's sack total. The defense finished with 15 fewer sacks in 2014 than the previous season. 

An inability to apply consistent pressure only exacerbated problems for an injury-riddled secondary. 

The team suffered a major blow when All-Pro safety Jairus Byrd was placed on injured reserve after the first month of the season due to a knee injury. Ryan wasn't able to adjust, though, and couldn't get the most out of a young secondary.

The lack of development from 2013 first-round pick Kenny Vaccaro was particularly disappointing. Vaccaro was asked to take over as a leader in the secondary and its primary playmaker. Instead, he found himself on the bench by the end of this season.

Injuries, a drop in production and a lack of development of young players all led to the defense's demise in Ryan's second season. Questions then surfaced regarding whether Payton would retain his defensive coordinator for a third campaign. 

The head coach quickly quashed any ideas of him and Ryan not getting along or replacing his defensive counterpart, but the rest of the coaching staff wasn't safe. 

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Five days after the season ended, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Payton dismissed wide receivers coach Henry Ellard, tight ends coach Terry Malone and assistant secondary coach Andre Curtis.

Change can create a new level of commitment and short-term improvement, but it can also signal the beginning of the end. 

Eventually all the changes among coordinators and position coaches reflect on the man who hired each of them. 

The decline of the Saints this past season also coincides with an aging core group of players. Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Ben Grubbs, Jonathan Goodwin, Jahri Evans and Brodrick Bunkley are all on the wrong side of 30 years of age. They were all starters this past season at key positions.

At 35 years old, the slight decline of Brees' play could be seen despite another highly productive season. His symbiotic relationship with Payton has proved to be the catalyst for all of the Saints' success in recent years. It's a relationship that won't be as productive in coming years as Brees continues to age. 

If the Saints don't surround their veterans with young talent capable of producing, then the 2015 campaign could prove to be as maddening as this past year.

The team will need to show an ability to win at home, prove to be more consistent on defense and develop its young talent for Payton to retain his position over the long haul. 

Payton proclaimed the team's goal next season will be loftier than simply returning to the playoffs after a one-year layoff: 

"

Honestly, and I say this in a very humble way, I hope that none of us feel like the ‘13 season was one where we were ready to have a second Mardi Gras parade. Look, we made the postseason, we had a chance to win the division and we couldn’t finish at the end at Carolina. And we got a playoff win, I recognize that was a big deal. But our aspirations are higher than that.

"

The coach is setting himself up for failure. Anything less than a Super Bowl appearance would be considered disappointing. The coach essentially provided Saints owner Tom Benson with the ammunition needed to justify a change if needed. 

The NFL is a league based on what players and coaches have done lately. The Saints are sitting at home watching the playoffs. If expectations are truly as lofty as Payton proclaimed, a second straight season with a losing record should be enough to signal his end as the team's head coach. 

Payton has done a tremendous job over the course of his tenure in New Orleans, but the end may be coming sooner rather than later. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFC South for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.