Boston Red Sox's Best Free-Agency Backup Plans If They Miss on Jon Lester
The Boston Red Sox have wasted no time taking an early lead in terms of hot-stove headlines.
According to The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham, they may not be done making some splashes, as the team is still very much in the hunt for Jon Lester.
Given how active Boston's already been in the free-agent market, that may be a bit surprising. First, the Red Sox re-signed closer Koji Uehara to a two-year, $18 million deal, securing the back end of their bullpen.
Then, in an out-of-nowhere signing, the Red Sox secured the services of Hanley Ramirez on Tuesday, signing the former Dodger and Marlin to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a fifth year.
Finally, after weeks, if not months, of rumors, the Sox stunned us all by signing Pablo Sandoval to a five-year deal worth $95 million with a club option for the 2020 season.
There will undoubtedly be more moves in the coming weeks, as the Red Sox now have an abundance of offensive talent. While their lineup appears to be in good shape for 2015, their pitching staff still needs a major overhaul, and it's likely that some outfielders and prospects will be traded in order to bolster the rotation.
Signing Lester would go a long way toward revamping the rotation, but while it looks more likely that Lester will re-sign with the Red Sox now than it did a few weeks ago, it's still far from a sure thing, especially given how much money the Sox have already doled out this offseason.
With that in mind, let's take a look at four free-agent alternatives to Lester the Sox could pursue should they be unable to woo their homegrown lefty.
These solutions assume that if Lester is too expensive, Max Scherzer certainly would be, too.
Brandon McCarthy, RHP
One of the more popular middle-tier free-agent starters available on the market, McCarthy has the potential to return significant value thanks to his injury history and pedestrian surface numbers.
McCarthy's 10-15 record and 4.05 ERA from a season ago don't inspire a ton of confidence, but the sinkerballer posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), according to FanGraphs, and was a different pitcher after he was traded from Arizona to New York. In 90.1 innings with the Yankees, McCarthy posted a 2.89 ERA and struck out 82 batters.
There are some red flags here, to be sure. McCarthy has consistently underperformed compared to his FIP, he's got a long, long injury history, and he's had trouble with homers when he's played in hitter-friendly parks. But there's still enough upside here for McCarthy to be a good No. 3 starter, and he shouldn't require a huge commitment.
According to ESPN Insider Jim Bowden (subscription required), McCarthy figures to receive a two-year, $20 million deal. That's the type of contract the Red Sox can still easily afford even given their recent spending spree, and if a McCarthy signing is paired with a top-of-the-rotation acquisition via trade, the Sox would go a long way toward rebuilding their staff.
Ervin Santana, RHP
Another pitcher who, like McCarthy, profiles better in the middle of the rotation than at the top of it, Santana presents another attractive option for the Red Sox should they fail to sign Lester even if he can't come close to matching Lester's production on a one-to-one basis.
Santana posted a 3.95 ERA in 196 innings with the Atlanta Braves last season, striking out 179 batters in 196 innings and slashing his homer rate from 2013. According to FanGraphs, his FIP was down a 3.39, and Santana has amazingly not lost significant velocity since 2009.
His consistent issues with the long ball and his fluctuating ground-ball rates make Santana more of a good pitcher than a great one, but he's pitched at least 170 innings every year since 2009, crossing the 200-inning mark three times during that span.
According to Bowden, Santana should be in line to receive a three-year, $42 million deal. That's pretty reasonable for a pitcher of his caliber, and adding 200-plus innings of Santana to the middle of Boston's rotation for the next several seasons would be a good thing.
Francisco Liriano, LHP
Whereas McCarthy and Santana represent pitchers with moderate upsides, Liriano is a higher-variance type of arm. Capable of dominating and frustrating alternatively between innings and starts, Liriano would be an interesting gamble for a team that desperately needs to add some top-flight talent to its rotation.
According to FanGraphs, Liriano sandwiched a 3.1 WAR campaign in 2013 between 1.5 and 1.6 WAR campaigns in 2012 and 2014, respectively. His walk rate is a huge issue, as he surrendered free passes to 11.7 percent of the hitters he faced in 2014, but he also strikes out plenty of batters and keeps the ball on the ground.
Liriano posted a 3.38 ERA last season and a 3.02 mark in 2013, and while you can expect those numbers to tick up a bit in the American League, he's still a capable No. 3 starter, albeit one with a long list of past injuries. Pairing him with Clay Buchholz would give the Sox two of the most perplexing pitchers in the game.
Bowden states that Liriano is in line to receive a three-year deal for $39 million, which is the type of reasonable gamble the Sox can take on a player of his caliber. He's not an ideal fit, but he's an interesting player nonetheless.
James Shields, RHP
Back in October, I covered three big reasons why Shields is a worse fit for the Red Sox than Lester, so I won't beat a dead horse here. However, if the Red Sox fail to sign Lester, Shields still makes a ton of sense.
Much has been made of Shields' postseason struggles, but don't lose sight of just how effective he's been in the regular season. Shields is among the most durable pitchers in the game, having thrown at least 200 innings every year since 2006, and he's posted an ERA below 3.25 in the AL three of the past four years.
Bowden believes Shields will get a five-year, $100 million contract, and while that may seem like a lot of money for a pitcher who will be 33 next season, there's no reason to think Shields won't be very effective for the next few seasons.
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