What Happens to Max Scherzer After Detroit Tigers' ALDS Sweep?

The Detroit Tigers’ once-promising season is over.

The Tigers’ roster seemingly was built for October baseball, with a starting rotation comprised of the Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price as well as perennial All-Star hitters Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler.

However, the AL Central champions ultimately came up short in their bid to return to the World Series, suffering a three-game sweep by the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS.

To make matters worse, the Tigers’ early departure from the postseason means they’ll now have to face the reality that Scherzer’s impressive run with the organization might be over.

Scherzer, 30, will become a free agent this offseason and is expected to be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the market. The Tigers could still potentially re-sign him; however, with several large-market organizations likely to be interested in the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner’s services, it’s also possible that a bidding war could push him out of the Tigers’ price range.

From James Schmehl of mlive.com:

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Scherzer is expected to enter the offseason as one of the most highly touted starting pitchers available on the free-agent market, along with James Shields and Jon Lester.

All three pitchers are expected to garner interest from a bevy of teams, including the Yankees, Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. However, the Tigers could be in the mix, too, as they'd have a giant hole to fill with the potential departure of Scherzer.

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But that’s not to say the Tigers haven’t tried locking up their ace right-hander.

Scherzer, a Scott Boras client, rejected a six-year, $144 million extension offer from the Tigers during spring training, believing that he could land a more lucrative deal this offseason following another strong campaign. The deal would have made Scherzer one of the six highest-paid players in baseball based on average salary, according to Schmehl.

While he didn’t post the video-game numbers he did in 2013, Scherzer finished tied for the AL lead with 18 wins and posted a 3.15 ERA and 2.85 FIP in 33 starts. He also set career-highs with 220.1 innings pitched and 252 strikeouts.

"I remember him saying at Spring Training...to expect him to have a season this year like he did last year just wasn't going to happen," manager Brad Ausmus said, via Adam Berry of MLB.com. "Well, he came pretty darn close."

Scherzer’s strong season helped the Tigers reach the playoffs for a fourth straight year, but his disappointing outing in Game 1 of the ALDS put the club at an early disadvantage and set an ominous tone for the remainder of the series.

However, the Tigers’ late-season collapse hasn’t affected the right-hander’s desire to remain with the club. According to Jason Beck of MLB.com, Scherzer said:

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It's hard to even think about that right now when you have a loss like this. Whenever you get bounced out of the playoffs and the postseason, it always stings. I'm sure I'll address that as the offseason progresses, but I do hope I'm back. I love this clubhouse, love everybody in here, been to battle with these guys for five years. It would mean a lot to me.

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But the unfortunate reality is that Scherzer likely will wind up with the team that offers him the best contract—the kind of contract that appropriately reflects his status as one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

“With 39 wins, 434 2/3 innings, 492 strikeouts and 12.7 Wins Above Replacement over the last two years, and his 31st birthday not until next July, Scherzer and agent Scott Boras have every reason to believe he'd be at the front of the group,” writes Beck.

Basically, it seems increasingly likely that Scherzer will receive a deal worth more than the $144 million offered by the Tigers.

But Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team might have a better chance at re-signing Scherzer than many believe given the lack of offense and increased number of elbow injuries across the game.

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However, until the cycle flips back to better offense and/or advancements are made to reduce torn elbows, then a growing number of clubs are going to shy away from the mega-pitching deal.

[…]

So here’s a question: This offseason, would you rather invest six total years and $55 million-ish for Liriano and Miller or seven years at $175 million for just Scherzer?

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The Tigers will be returning the rest of their starting pitchers in 2015, and the club has several candidates—namely Robbie Ray, Kyle Lobstein, Drew VerHagen and Buck Farmer—who could compete for a spot in the rotation should Scherzer walk.

Plus, for all we know, they could already have their sights set on signing another free-agent arm.

While it’s far from a guarantee that the Tigers will attempt to meet Scherzer’s contract demands, it’d be surprising if they didn’t at least engage in negotiations given his success with the franchise and desire to come back next year.

"It's unbelievable when you consider how much talent is in here and types of guys we have in this clubhouse," Scherzer said, via Schmehl. "Hopefully, we can find a way to get back together and do it again in 2015."