UFC 129 Fight Card: Assessing Mark Hominick's Chances Against Jose Aldo

The UFC has taken every opportunity afforded to showcase Canadian fighters during its biggest event in history held on Canadian soil this Saturday evening. No less than 10 "Beaver" fighters are billed for the 12-bout soirée.

Among these, the No. 1 contender in the promotion's featherweight division (and London, ON native), Mark Hominick, is scheduled to fight the current UFC FW champion, Jose Aldo (aka the Smiling Squirrel).

Hence, this is the tale of an unlikely event in the animal kingdom. In MMA, the smart money is on the Squirrel, as he readies to fight the Canadian fighter. The Squirrel is the overwhelming favourite (-600) against the Beaver (+400). These come real close to Fedor-like numbers, preceding his demise…

Both animals have a great work ethic, which translates easily into great conditioning in this case. Incessant storing of foodstuffs and dam building will inevitably have that effect. Both are nimble, with a slight advantage to the Squirrel.

The Beaver (20-8) possesses effective boxing and Muay Thai, though it has privileged boxing over leg kicks and knees of late. He tends to stalk and cuts the Octagon, as experienced boxers do, forcing opponents on their heels into a defensive stance where the industrious Beaver chooses its shots.

Almost clinical in his approach, the Beaver shows a lot of patience and sticks to its game plan. It goes in for the kill once it has seen or smelled blood. Must be them long winters which make for it to be so cautious, with the exception of its last outing against George Roop (TKO win at 1:28 of the first round).

The dam-building critter can defend on the mat, but its record against accomplished grapplers shows a blind spot (cf. Grispi and Yahya fights). Knowing the Squirrel possesses great BJJ—though it has shown a marked preference for keeping the fight standing up—it is safe to assume the Beaver will prefer a stand-up battle where speed will be the deciding factor.

The Squirrel (18-1) is a true phenomenon. The word gets used a lot these days, with the meteoric rise of fighters like Jon Jones and Anthony Pettis. Nevertheless, the smiling Squirrel is one of the most exciting and is consistently listed among the top five pound-per-pound fighters in the sport.

With no less than 12 early stoppages by (T)KO, the Squirrel has signed some of these in the most brutal manner, ending bouts via soccer kicks to the head. One wonders if the Squirrel murmurs his favourite call, “Wheeeeee!” as he aims for an invisible net. Were it not so deadly, one would be tempted to describe it as cute.

The Squirrel is a small specimen with an uncanny ability to unleash an amazing amount of pain. Even when it shows mercy to rivals, it manages to inflict near-irreversible damage that a sadistic manager could parlay into a sponsorship—say, for stretchers.

Doubters should look for images of Faber’s leg post-Aldo fight, swollen to the point of not being able to discern joints almost down to his toes.

Hence, the Squirrel has killer leg-kicks but equally devastating flying knees. When it takes flight with its knee cocked, the Squirrel can almost behead other animals, as witnessed against Cub Swanson when it nearly fractured the small bear’s skull with an impeccably timed assault that saw Swanson immediately brace his head with both hands and drop to his knees.

All that viciousness within the first eight seconds of the first stanza.

Rumour has it that Mr. and Mrs. Beaver are expecting their first kit any day. If comfort allows, the missus wishes to attend the April 30 show in TO. For health reasons, their family veterinarian might want to prevent that; stress-induced labour is never listed among recommended practices.  

Betting lines from BetUS.

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