Santonio Holmes vs. Nnamdi Asomugha: Why Holmes is the More Valuable Free Agent

While much of the media content revolving around the NFL is currently focused on the draft, the very fact the NFL decided to release the 2011 schedule on Tuesday evening makes me believe they are closer to agreeing to a CBA deal than most of us think.

If I’m correct in that assertion then free agency will take place—likely sometime after the draft. And if that is true, it is important to determine the value of such free agents.

For the purposes of this article, we want to compare the top cornerback and top wide receiver that will be available as free agents.

While the top guy at the receiver position could be questionable—between two Jets, Braylon Edwards and our guy, Santonio Holmes—the cornerback position is not, as Nnamdi Asomugha is the elite corner not just in free agency but in all of football.

Yet one could make a reasonable argument that our guy Holmes is the more valuable player in this free agency class.

Asomugha is an All-Pro corner who literally shuts down the receiver he is covering and limits that guy to few catches and even fewer big plays.

There is no doubt that is a valuable asset to any defense.

But look at the success—or lack thereof—that the Raiders have had while Asomugha has been in the silver and black.

The defense has been decent when they could garner a pass rush and at least hold up against the run. But when one or both of those elements was missing, the Raider defense was atrocious.

Further proof states that despite Asomugha being the very best at his position in the entire league for the last five-plus years, the Raiders never even had a winning record.

While Asomugha was busy completely stopping one guy, the other 10 Raider defenders were losing their one-on-one matchups.

This fact doesn’t mean that Asomugha is any less great—in fact it further accentuates just how great he is. That he shut down a receiver, and in some instances an entire passing game on his own, proves that with any help around him, Asomugha’s presence would make for an absolute elite defense.

But he cannot do it on his own, and that is the main reason he is not more valuable than Santonio Holmes.

Of course Holmes had considerable talent around him, but in 2010 Holmes played in just 12 games and only had 10 starts. In those games, Holmes managed 52 receptions for 746 yards and a very valuable six touchdowns. His yards per catch were actually a career low at 14.3.

For most guys that would be outstanding; for Holmes it’s below average. Part of this was due to the Jets offensive scheme which relies on a ton of short passes. Part of it may have been due to Holmes never being fully healthy and up-to speed in the Jets’ scheme.

In the regular season, Holmes’ presence in the lineup only seemed to muddy the Jets’ offensive attack—though he was the key to many of the Jets’ miraculous comebacks.

But when the games became single elimination, Holmes’ presence was clearly a catalyst for greater offensive execution.

No the Jets were not an offensive juggernaut—even during the playoffs—but they were able to move the ball effectively against better than average defenses (Indianapolis and New England) and nearly completed a fourth quarter comeback against the best defense in football (Pittsburgh).

Much of the reason was the ability of Holmes to stretch the field—and even make some plays after the catch—which opened up the middle of the field for tight end Dustin Keller and slot receiver Jerrico Cotchery.

Going forward, Holmes will likely be looking to get back into a more vertical passing offense like the one he left in Pittsburgh.

This would up his overall value and likely raise his overall productivity. His yards per catch average would go way up, and if he were able to stay healthy for a full season so too would his receptions and touchdown numbers.

For a former Super Bowl MVP and a guy who averages over 900 receiving yards per year, Holmes’ stock should be much higher than it currently is. Of course, one cannot forget the character questions when thinking of Holmes’ stock, but it a good bet that Holmes has matured since his early years in the league.

If he can stay out of trouble, his productivity in the league makes him the top receiver in the 2011 free agent class. However, when comparing him to Asomugha—who has zero character issues and is generally regarded as a really good guy—Holmes does take a bow.

Let us be careful though in putting so much stock in character. Ultimately, the game is played on the field, and coaches will always play the most productive guys if they are able to. For this reason, Holmes’ stock doesn’t drop as much as one might expect it to.

The final piece to this puzzle is the contract—specifically the money attached to it.

Asomugha is coming off a deal that paid him approximately $15 million two years in a row. Holmes’ cap figure this past season came nowhere close to that number. 

Though Asomugha was hurt part of last season, it seems unlikely that he and his agent are going to accept much of a discount off his former contract. Holmes missed those four games due to suspension, yet was productive in the 12 games he played.

He will command a nice little raise, but there is no way on earth he nears Asomugha’s contract. Holmes may be disheartened by that fact, but whoever signs him will be very happy.

That’s because they will be getting a clutch speed demon coming off his worst professional season, but that was in only 12 games. They get a guy they don’t have to rob the bank to pay.

And last but not least, they get a guy who is just entering his prime.

You would be wise in arguing that Nmamdi Asomugha is the better player, but the better value—based on his cap figure and his production—undoubtedly will be Santonio Holmes.