Arsenal at the World Cup, Part II: Can Spain or the Netherlands Win?

In my last Arsenal at the 2010 World Cup installment, I tried to determine which emerging young Gunner had the best opportunity to make a splash this summer.

An interesting debate ensued as to which is better—to be the star player on a team with a tough draw, like Nicklas Bendtner, or to be, like Carlos Vela, only one of many attacking options on a more versatile roster?

While the conversation hinged on Bendtner, Vela, and the frustrating position of Samir Nasri on the French national team, some were confused as to why Cesc Fabregas, who turned 23 yesterday, was not included in the discussion.

Fabregas, while young, is a veteran player for Arsenal who long ago proved that he is a world-class player. He, like Arsenal's other World Cup-bound superstar, Robin van Persie, has his eyes on a bigger prize.

So the question is, can Cesc's Spain or van Persie's Netherlands win the World Cup?

Short Answer

It may be a bit unorthodox, and it may spoil the ending, but in the hope of getting everyone's polemical juices flowing, get ready for a spoiler:

No.

Neither team will win the World Cup, nor even make the semifinal.

Spain and the Netherlands always field a talented squad, but neither has ever won. Spain hasn't even reached the semifinal since 1950. And in seven World Cups since their mid-'70s glory days, the Dutch have failed to qualify three times and have been bounced in the second round twice.

The past experiences of the Oranje and la Furia Roja are not strictly relevant to their 2010 performance, but they beg the question, why should this summer be the year for either of them?

Spain

Vicente del Bosque's Spain have high hopes coming into the World Cup. No European team performed better in qualification, and they have the most famous selection of available talent of any of the 32 teams traveling to South Africa.

The question is, who will actually be available come June?

The latest injury scare for Spain is Xavi, who admitted after Barcelona's 4-1 victory over Villareal on Saturday that he has suffered a calf tear that could potentially sideline him in June. Despite the tear, he has declared his intention of playing in Barcelona's final three matches, increasing the likelihood of further stress on the injured muscle.

With Marcos Senna, Andres Iniesta, and Fabregas already questionable, and with Liverpool striker Fernando Torres still recovering from surgery, Xavi is just one more strike against a Spanish side that may have hit its peak two summers ago at Euro 2008.

Spain would still appear to be one of the tournament favorites, but with the possible loss of Iniesta and Xavi, and with Torres' form doubtful even if he is cleared by training staff, Spain will be limping into the competition.

They should win Group H, where their only real test is likely to come from Chile, but first place in Group H would pit Spain against the second place team from Group G, which features both Portugal and Brazil. It also puts them on a likely quarterfinal crash course with Italy.

The Netherlands

The Dutch will be a joy to watch in South Africa.

With the speed of Arjen Robben, the tactical vision of Wesley Sneijder, and the sharpshooting left boot of Rafael van der Vaart, their midfield is an arsenal in itself.

Bert van Marwijk announced yesterday that 33-year-old Ruud van Nistelrooy will not be on the World Cup roster, unless he proves he's fit enough to contribute.

However, even without Rudie, the Dutch can't fail to score.

Robin van Persie will not be in top form, but with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Dirk Kuyt, and exciting young Hamburg winger Eljero Elia, the Oranje still have the most versatile assemblage of striking talent in the tournament.

Their problem is in defense.

Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong are solid, but Joris Mathijsen and Andre Ooijer are undersized and over-aged for a centerback pairing.

Their first match, at Johannesburg's high altitude Soccer City, may expose the shortcomings of the Dutch back line when they come up against a solid young Danish squad.

Nicklas Bendtner and the Olsen Gang may be overmatched over the course of a full 90 minutes, but expect goals in a match where neither team should feel quite comfortable.

With their remaining two group stage matches more or less at sea level, the Dutch shouldn't fail to win their group, but that would slate them for a likely quarterfinal matchup with a far more complete Brazil squad.

Conclusion

No European team has ever won a World Cup on another continent. With a mile-high final in Johannesburg, where average July temperatures vary from four to 16 degrees Celsius, this year should be just as disorienting as ever.

After Spain's shocking 2-0 loss to the United States in Bloemfontein last summer, they do not appear to be the most likely candidate for breaking Europe's curious win-less trend.

They will be entering the World Cup bruised and beaten at best.

If Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas, and Senna are not in form due to injury, del Bosque will have a seriously undermanned midfield.

Without Fernando Torres, who does not relish physical play himself, Spain's otherwise undersized front line should struggle against tough, disciplined defense, which they should expect in a potential quarterfinal or semifinal encounter with Italy or Germany.

As for the Netherlands, they are essentially an incomplete squad, destined to score big in the first round and flame out in the knockout stages. Though their likely round of 16 draw is favorable should they win their group, they would be unlikely to beat Brazil, FIFA's newly anointed No. 1 team.

Spain are one of the favorites to win the World Cup, and the Netherlands, widely admired for their style of play, are another favorite pick despite their defensive flaws.

At the World Cup, however, flawed and injured teams are less likely to be the last squad standing than solid, disciplined sides with less obvious superstar appeal.

Bottom line, it will take at least another year for an Arsenal player to win a major cup.

If you missed Part I: Which Young Gunner Will Fare Best at the World Cup, click here.