The Big Ten Has To Expand Now

Put bluntly, the Big 10 needs to take advantage of its current position and expand.

Not three-to-five years from now, not sometime this decade, not after someone else expands.

Now.

The expansion talk started when Wisconsin’s athletic director Barry Alvarez mentioned the idea of expansion to his university’s athletic board. Since then, scenario after scenario has developed.

Names have been thrown forward like the expected Notre Dame, a curveball with Texas, and perhaps the more unexpected team, depending on your camp, Rutgers.

While the idea of expansion seems to be more serious after every day, others have pushed back saying that just because the Big 10 hired a firm to research possibilities, they won’t necessarily expand.

I respectfully disagree. They have to expand.

Let’s look at what the speculation has caused in the college football world so far.

1. First of all, the Big 10’s Rose Bowl annual opponent, the Pac-10, is suddenly rumored to also be considering expansion. Teams such as Colorado, Utah, BYU, among others have been listed as possible candidates.
2. The idea of expansion could cause a nightmare for the Big East. Several teams—Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, to name a few, have been mentioned time and time again as candidates for the Big 10’s search for the perfect match (or matches). While Rutgers wouldn’t necessarily be missed by the Big East in any major, “money-making” sport, the loss of Pitt and Syracuse, especially as basketball programs, would be devastating to the conference. The Big East would most likely look for replacements in Conference-USA or maybe even the ACC, but they could hardly replace the likes of Pitt and Syracuse. Nevertheless, a domino effect would be seen across a number of conferences, as C-USA would then attempt to replace those lost to the Big East, and so forth.
3. Texas and Missouri are two names from the Big 12 that were also concerned. For the sake of Armageddon-prophesying, throw out Texas. Not gonna happen. Missouri goes to the Big 10. Big 12 has several names to consider.. Utah and Texas Christian, for starters. Debate the probability of those two specifically, sure. But there’s no doubt that the Big 12 would try to land a hot commodity with the opportunity. This would most likely destroy a conference like the MWC, who is crossing its fingers to receive an automatic BCS bid in a few years.

Notice I failed to mention anything about expansion without mentioning the Big 10?

That’s where the urgency comes in.

Say the Big 10 decides not to expand at this time. Sure, this choice is plausible, and could very well end up happening.  

The Big 10 passes on a 12th member, and also on any chance of more members than that for the foreseeable future. (It is rumored that the Big 10 could more than just one team in an attempt to get into more TV markets.)

Other conferences won’t be making the same "pass." This is where what I like to call Conference-Armageddon happens. This would probably happen around Dec. 21, 2012. 

1. In an effort to create the most competitive conference in college football history, the SEC and Pac-10 successfully pick apart the Big 12—and perhaps picking up a mid-major or two in the process—becoming two of the first conferences to have more than 12 members. Texas, Colorado, Utah, and BYU go to the Pac-10, while Oklahoma, Texas Christian, and Texas A&M head for the SEC. What’s left of the Big 12 fails to keep its automatic BCS bid for the post-season, and falls apart.
2. Seeing what is happening before their eyes, the Big East and ACC decide to merge in an attempt to compete with the new Pac-14 and SuperSEC. (My new conference names are original, aren’t they?)
3. The Big 10 is left alone as the only original BCS conference not changed, and doesn’t have the choices it could have taken way-back-when Barry Alvarez mentioned that some athletic directors and coaches would push harder for expansion.

Sure, the Big 10 and Jim Delaney would have to play stupid while all of this was going on.

I wouldn’t put it past them.

My REAL prediction: The Big 10 will most likely pick up another member within the next year, giving them a conference championship game, a few conferences play musical chairs, but no one makes the aforementioned drastic moves that changes the face and organization of college football as we know it.

But if you start seeing Texas talking annual travel distance to Pasadena, Eugene, or Corvallis, don’t say you weren’t warned.