New York Jets: No Real Underdogs Against the Colts

The Jets "can't get no respect." That's the case even though the are basically even money against the Indianapolis Colts, just as they were against the San Diego Chargers. 

"Sabermetrics" say so, by measuring the relationship of points for (PF) versus points against (PA), using the so-called Pythagorean percentage (pct):

Pct= (PF-squared)/((PF-squared) + (PA-squared)).

The Jets' percentage was .685 on this metric, the Colts .647. This difference is enough to offset the Colts home-field advantage generated by their seedings.

Meaning that we should forget the Jets' lackluster season record, or the fact that Indianapolis went 14-2.

In fact, that record says the that spreads offered on on the Jets are too large. Yes, the Jets lost seven games, but five of them by six points or less. Meaning that the chances of beating them by more than seven points is not anywhere near even money, but more like one in eight.

And it is worth noting that while the New Orleans Saints was one of two teams that beat the Jets by more than seven points, the Colts actually LOST to the Jets during the regular season.

On the other hand, the Jets won several of their games by runaway scores. And the two-touchdown victory over the Colts was nothing to sneeze at. Put another way, the Jets have great raw power but "choked" during some close ones.

You can say that the Colts lost the game because they took out Peyton Manning. But the fact was that Manning failed to put the game away against the Jets.

When he left, the Colts were leading only 15-10, less than a seven-point spread. And it was the Colts' DEFENSE that blew the lead and allowed a convincing 29-15 Jets victory.

One other reason that the Jets have a chance to beat the Colts today is because they resemble another team that did: the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers with top-notch defense, good enough offense.

In fact, the two defenses figure to make the game close. It may well hinge on whether Mark Sanchez can get an extra touchdown, compared to his lackluster performance in San Diego; whether the Jets' defense gets it, as was the case last week; or whether the Colts get it, and win.

The Jets resemble the "underdog" cartoon character. In private life, he was a humble shoeshine boy. But when his girlfriend shouted for help, he would step into a telephone booth and immediately be transformed into the mighty dog.

The Jets may have lost some close games during the regular season. But they have so far risen to the occasion to the siren song of the Super Bowl.

They may do so once again. They may even fail to. But it's unlikely to be to the degree that the oddsmakers have them.