BCS Championship Predictions: Why The Texas Longhorns Will Beat Florida

With Florida now rolling again and Texas's win over Oklahoma State all but securing the Longhorns a spot in the BCS national championship, it's now more than probable that these are your national title contenders.

With that in mind, I'd like to look at the how the Longhorns can have success against the Gators on offense, defense, and special teams if they play their cards right the rest of the year.

On Offense

What is the best passing offense in the SEC?

Tough one, isn't it? The SEC, for all the contemporary infatuation, is a pretty old-school, conservative conference. Running the ball and playing great defense is how to win games.

So to answer: from a pure statistical standpoint, the Arkansas Razorbacks are the best passing team in the SEC. They average 295 passing yards per game, a full 60 yards ahead of second-place South Carolina, and have thrown 20 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Against Arkansas, Florida allowed 224 passing yards and a 75-yard touchdown to Greg Childs in the Gators' closest game to date. Though that effort was assisted by a lot of fumbles and a missing Brandon Spikes, sidelined with an Achilles injury, it was hard not to question the formerly ironclad Florida defense and their immunity to allowing big plays.

Another question: how has Florida fared against great passing teams over the last few years?

It depends on what we consider a “great passing team.” In 2008, Oklahoma was the great passing team in college football. Sam Bradford threw for 50 touchdowns, 4,720 yards, and a 67.9 completion percentage for the point-a-minute (and sometimes more) Sooners.

Against Florida, however, Bradford was 26 of 41 for 253 yards and two interceptions in the low-scoring slog of a national championship game that was decided 24-14 in the Gators' favor.

For those that remember the game, it was the constant pass rush due to blitzing and stellar defensive line play that kept Bradford uncomfortable and the passing attack ineffective. The Heisman winner was rarely able to settle in, make his reads, and look downfield. The Oklahoma offensive line, despite four seniors and upwards of 70 starts between them, bled Florida defenders and forced Bradford out of pocket, where the sophomore was noticeably less effective.

Let's try one more question. When was the last time Florida played against a senior quarterback in a spread, pass-heavy system?

The answer to this will make you laugh. It was against Chad Henne and the Michigan Wolverines in the Capital One Bowl in 2008. The Wolverines broke out four- and five-wide receiver sets against the Gators for Lloyd Carr's last game, and Henne threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Wolverines to a 41-35 upset.

And while Henne was no Colt McCoy in terms of elusiveness, this upset is the most comparable game the Texas Longhorns can lean on to prepare for the inevitable BCS championship game.

Just look at the teams Florida has faced this year. There's not a seasoned, consistent, effective passer among the group. Mallett, Joe Cox and LSU's Jordan Jefferson are all in their first year as starters, Jonathon Crompton is a catfish, Mississippi State's Tyson Lee is a JUCO transfer, and Kentucky is juggling quarterbacks like bottles of aged bourbon.

None of these quarterbacks is like Colt McCoy: four-year starters, team recordbreakers in wins, touchdowns, attempts, completion percentages, former AP Offensive Players of the Year, and so on. The Florida Gators, for all their defensive salt, don't face good passers, as an extension of their conference limitation.

Passing is how Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns will look to find success against the Gator D. To do this, they'll have to combine Florida's unfamiliarity with defending the pass-heavy spread with McCoy's seasoned coolness as a veteran and a lot of help from the offensive line and the playcalling.

The recipe the Gators used for Bradford—chasing him out of the pocket, getting him to throw on the run—will not be successful in counteracting McCoy's effectiveness. McCoy is a gifted scrambler, even leading his team in rushing yards for some stretches in his career. He throws on the run better than any passer in the country, and the Longhorns run the broken play almost by design.

Greg Davis, Texas' offensive coordinator, will capitalize on this with plenty of rollouts and QB draws to mitigate the effectiveness of the Florida D.

To put it in national championship terms: McCoy is a great passer dangerous on the run, just as Vince Young was a great runner dangerous on the pass. His mobility out of pocket will be what keeps Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong tossing and turning at night.

But for Texas to reach the point where the four- and five-wide sets are legitimate, they will need to use the rest of this season to fine tune the passing attack, which has suffered some statistical regression this season.

Jordan Shipley, McCoy's favorite target, has twice as many receptions (64) as the nearest receiver (sophomore Dan Buckner, who has 32). Coupled with Texas' notable lack of tight ends, this could spell trouble if McCoy doesn't develop a rapport with someone other than Shipley.

The development of Malcolm Williams as a downfield threat in the Missouri and Oklahoma State games is an encouraging sign. Williams was able to secure a 44-yarder downfield, and also caught a touchdown pass. His talents will be crucial for stretching the Florida defense, allowing Shipley to run the underneath routes (he's actually a better slot receiver than a pure wideout) and find the soft spots in the zone for which he is the most dangerous.

Texas should also throw a few bones to the running game, since in short yardage and goal-line situations, these will be necessary. But to gash the Gator defense like it will be necessary to do, the Longhorns will have to rely on Good McCoy showing up. It'll be his game to lose.

On Defense

Does the name Sergio Kindle ring a bell? How about Earl Thomas? Rodderick Muckelroy? If they don't register now, they will soon enough. Texas' defense leads the nation in rushing yards allowed at 52.88 yards per game. And before you say it, there are rush-first teams in the Big 12. Not every team has a gunslinger.

Oklahoma State, for one, is a rush-first team, heavy on draws and counters. Texas Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp's goal heading into the game was to take away Okie State's rushing attack, and they did just that, forcing Oklahoma State to go to the air, where Zac Robinson was picked four times, twice for touchdowns.

Colorado and Missouri were similarly unsuccessful, and Texas Tech, which deploys a successful draw play to counter defenses overplaying the Air Raid, rushed for -6 yards.

Anyone in fear about how the rush defense will play against non-Big 12 teams should also remind themselves that Muschamp is an ex-SEC guy, formerly of the LSU Tigers in their championship year, and of the Auburn Tigers during the Tuberville era. He's used to fielding defenses that are physical and that shut down the run and force teams into desperate passes on third and long.

Beating the Gator offense means taking away the running game and making Florida rely on the questionable passing of Tim Tebow. That means playing penetrative defense on the line and committing one of the speedy OLBs to spy on Tebow. Emmanuel Acho and Kindle will have Tebow in their sights all night.

Everyone from Arkansas, the worst defense in the SEC statistically, to Mississippi State, to Kentucky, has had success in penetrating the offensive line and getting to Tebow. Florida offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, who also coaches the line, has struggled in getting the line to pick up blitzes. Additionally, Tebow is not a quarterback used to throwing into spaces vacated by the blitz, something McCoy can hang his 10-gallon hat on.

Tebow, for all the hype, remains ponderous in the pocket and prone to unnecessary scrambling when his first reads are covered. Texas should have no trouble disrupting the line when the Gators are in pass protection.

Texas has the size to contain the dive play on defense and the speed to keep Tebow from gashing runs, and Muschamp is one of the best single-game defensive coordinators in the country, with a specialty in SEC fare.

If they can keep the big rushes to a minimum like LSU did, force a few turnovers like Arkansas did, and/or pressure Tebow into mistakes like Mississippi State did, they will have success in containing Florida.

On Special Teams

This one breaks about even.

Both teams can claim great punt returners in Florida's Brandon Jacobs and Jordan Shipley, great kickers in Florida's Caleb Sturgis (who hit his career long, a 56-yarder against Georgia) and senior Hunter Lawrence, (16/18 on the year and a perfect 3/3 in the Red River Shootout), top 10 kick return units.

Both have blocked a pair of punts and make it a priority to go after the kicker on special teams.

In a close game, as usual, a big play on special teams will turn the game in that team's favor. Jordan Shipley has inspired the UT offense against Oklahoma in 2008 and Texas Tech and Colorado in 2009, so its conceivable this unit is more dangerous, but Jacobs has been kicked away from for the better part of the year, so its likely a push in terms of talent. With good luck, the Longhorns will catch Florida's punter snoozing, and the field position battle will tilt in Texas' favor.

Prediction

Both of these teams have some work to do before the big game. What's ironic is that the work is similar: both quarterbacks need to learn to spread the ball around faster and better, and both defenses...well, both defenses just need to remain healthy.

But while Texas' defense plays comfortably against the spread but can condense down easily for the run, the Florida defense, condensed as it is against the SEC's rushing attack, may have more difficulty spreading out and defending in space.

That's only if McCoy can actively avoid throwing to Shipley, and instead, hit some other targets in the functional tune-ups left on the schedule.

I trust Davis to draw up the proper gameplan in getting his quarterback ready—I'm not nearly as confident in Steve Addazio and his bullheaded protege.

Texas 31, Florida 19