BCS Championship Predictions: Why The Texas Longhorns Will Beat Florida

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With Florida now rolling again and Texas's win over Oklahoma State all but securing the Longhorns a spot in the BCS national championship, it's now more than probable that these are your national title contenders.

With that in mind, I'd like to look at the how the Longhorns can have success against the Gators on offense, defense, and special teams if they play their cards right the rest of the year.

On Offense

What is the best passing offense in the SEC?

Tough one, isn't it? The SEC, for all the contemporary infatuation, is a pretty old-school, conservative conference. Running the ball and playing great defense is how to win games.

So to answer: from a pure statistical standpoint, the Arkansas Razorbacks are the best passing team in the SEC. They average 295 passing yards per game, a full 60 yards ahead of second-place South Carolina, and have thrown 20 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Against Arkansas, Florida allowed 224 passing yards and a 75-yard touchdown to Greg Childs in the Gators' closest game to date. Though that effort was assisted by a lot of fumbles and a missing Brandon Spikes, sidelined with an Achilles injury, it was hard not to question the formerly ironclad Florida defense and their immunity to allowing big plays.

Another question: how has Florida fared against great passing teams over the last few years?

It depends on what we consider a “great passing team.” In 2008, Oklahoma was the great passing team in college football. Sam Bradford threw for 50 touchdowns, 4,720 yards, and a 67.9 completion percentage for the point-a-minute (and sometimes more) Sooners.

Against Florida, however, Bradford was 26 of 41 for 253 yards and two interceptions in the low-scoring slog of a national championship game that was decided 24-14 in the Gators' favor.

For those that remember the game, it was the constant pass rush due to blitzing and stellar defensive line play that kept Bradford uncomfortable and the passing attack ineffective. The Heisman winner was rarely able to settle in, make his reads, and look downfield. The Oklahoma offensive line, despite four seniors and upwards of 70 starts between them, bled Florida defenders and forced Bradford out of pocket, where the sophomore was noticeably less effective.

Let's try one more question. When was the last time Florida played against a senior quarterback in a spread, pass-heavy system?

The answer to this will make you laugh. It was against Chad Henne and the Michigan Wolverines in the Capital One Bowl in 2008. The Wolverines broke out four- and five-wide receiver sets against the Gators for Lloyd Carr's last game, and Henne threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Wolverines to a 41-35 upset.

And while Henne was no Colt McCoy in terms of elusiveness, this upset is the most comparable game the Texas Longhorns can lean on to prepare for the inevitable BCS championship game.

Just look at the teams Florida has faced this year. There's not a seasoned, consistent, effective passer among the group. Mallett, Joe Cox and LSU's Jordan Jefferson are all in their first year as starters, Jonathon Crompton is a catfish, Mississippi State's Tyson Lee is a JUCO transfer, and Kentucky is juggling quarterbacks like bottles of aged bourbon.

None of these quarterbacks is like Colt McCoy: four-year starters, team recordbreakers in wins, touchdowns, attempts, completion percentages, former AP Offensive Players of the Year, and so on. The Florida Gators, for all their defensive salt, don't face good passers, as an extension of their conference limitation.

Passing is how Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns will look to find success against the Gator D. To do this, they'll have to combine Florida's unfamiliarity with defending the pass-heavy spread with McCoy's seasoned coolness as a veteran and a lot of help from the offensive line and the playcalling.

The recipe the Gators used for Bradford—chasing him out of the pocket, getting him to throw on the run—will not be successful in counteracting McCoy's effectiveness. McCoy is a gifted scrambler, even leading his team in rushing yards for some stretches in his career. He throws on the run better than any passer in the country, and the Longhorns run the broken play almost by design.

Greg Davis, Texas' offensive coordinator, will capitalize on this with plenty of rollouts and QB draws to mitigate the effectiveness of the Florida D.

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