Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals Odds, Analysis, NHL Betting Pick

It all comes down to a deciding Game 7 for the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The reigning Stanley Cup champions have lost three of the last four games after taking a 2-0 series lead and are listed as big road underdogs to advance to the Eastern Conference Final after losing the last two games by a combined score of 9-4.

Betting line: The Capitals opened as -175 favorites (wager $175 to win $100); the total is at 5.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NHL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 2.7-2.5, Capitals (NHL picks on every game)

Why the Penguins can pay on the NHL lines

Pittsburgh has won two of the first three games played on the road in this series and is still confident that Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby can be beaten. Holtby has surrendered at least two goals in each of the first six games.

Washington has not made it to the Eastern Conference Final since playing for the Stanley Cup in 1998, and the Penguins eliminated the Capitals in this round a year ago. They should still have plenty of confidence as the defending champs despite dropping three of the past four.

Why the Capitals can pay on the NHL lines

Washington's offense has come alive in the team's rally back from a 3-1 deficit to tie it up heading back home. The Capitals have seemingly solved Pittsburgh netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, who allowed two goals each in winning three of the first four games before melting down in the past two.

Fleury has faced a lot more shots than Holtby (200-123), and that has taken a toll on him late in the series. He does not look like he is seeing the puck as well, and Washington has made sure to keep peppering him.

Smart betting pick

Those who doubted Fleury going into this postseason run are finally starting to see the player they expected. While he was outstanding in the first round and very good early in this series, that matters little now. There is a reason the Pens rode rookie Matt Murray last year when they won the Cup, and the loss of defenseman Kris Letang to injury before the playoffs began is also beginning to show.

The Caps are fortunate to have this opportunity to close out their nemesis on home ice, and they will use that to their advantage and end their drought of failing to make it past the second round while paying off at online gambling sites.

NHL betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Pittsburgh's last nine games.

The total has gone over in four of Pittsburgh's last five games on the road.

Washington is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home.

All NHL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.