March Madness 2017: Bubble Teams That Will Be Left on the Outside Looking In

In a month of madness littered with buzzwords, "bubble" manages to rise above the rest. 

The word doesn't have a negative connotation in most instances, yet March Madness has morphed it into one over the years. Teams don't want to be anywhere near the bubble as the Big Dance nears, a cutoff of sorts that often comes down to coin-flip decisions to round out the bracket.

Those unfortunate programs with popped bubbles free fall into a purgatory of sorts, where consolation tournaments simply don't compare.

A flurry of factors determine which way fate swings for bubble teams, with RPI, strength of schedule, good wins, bad losses, KenPom metrics and so much more mashing into a complex decision-making process.

Let's trim the fat by identifying a few teams sure to have their bubbles burst.

Projected Bubble Teams Left Out

Syracuse

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While it's somewhat weird to see a program like Syracuse on the bubble, Jim Boeheim's team hasn't exactly met expectations this year.

The Orange sit 84th in RPI, which wouldn't normally be the most disqualifying thing in the world. But the team is 3-4 against the RPI Top 25 and only 18-14 despite its strength of schedule coming in at 62.

Tough ACC conference or not, the Orange fell flat to close the year, losing five of their last seven games. On March 8, they came up lame against the Miami Hurricanes to bow out of the ACC tournament early.

Keep in mind Miami is seventh in the ACC. Syracuse got 22 points from senior Andrew White III but little else in the 62-57 loss, which meshes well with the story of the season as a whole because he's the only player averaging more than 13.1 points per game.

Last year, Syracuse made a little bit of history in the Big Dance after seemingly getting a nod only because of program prestige. The selection committee will find it hard to do the same thing again this year, though—not after the Orange went out without much more than a whimper, pushing the team's combined neutral and road record to 2-11.

Illinois 

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Syracuse shouldn't get too upset about missing the Big Dance—Illinois is another 18-14 team unlikely to get a nod. 

Even worse for the Fighting Illini, they have a better RPI (at 62), not to mention a strength of schedule of 17.

The problem? Illinois never showed up against the toughest stretches of schedule. The team went 1-4 against the RPI Top 25. Stretch it out to the Top 50, and it moves to 5-9. Despite the efforts of Malcolm Hill, he was one of only two players to average double-digit points (16.8) all season, and the team as a whole ranked 116th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com.

Worst of all, Illinois had a winnable game against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines had a travel issue before the game and had to play in practice jerseys. Illinois still lost 75-55, letting the Wolverines shoot 53.6 percent from the floor.

With the program firing head coach John Groce, announced by athletic director Josh Whitman, per the official athletic website, it looks like the bubble has officially popped.

Illinois State

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This isn't a good year for programs in the Prairie State.

On certain parts of paper, the Redbirds look great. They cruised through the MVC, running up a 17-1 mark. That's great. As is an RPI of 35, even if the strength of schedule only comes in at 159. It has been a treat for fans to watch the team lock down opponents, ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com.

But there are gigantic holes in the resume. If one looked up "bad losses" in the dictionary, the Redbirds' logo would probably accompany it. The team managed to lose five games against the RPI Top 150 and one outside of the Top 150. Going down at the hands of Tulsa, Murray State and San Francisco—regardless of venue—creates a big black eye.

As does the inability to overcome Wichita State. The Redbirds are 1-3 against the Shockers and closed the season with a major 71-51 loss, which doesn't look so terrible compared to the 86-45 beating the team took at the hands of the Shockers back in early February.

After the loss on March 5, it was hard to ignore the fact the team's strength came up lame again.

"We picked a bad day to have a bad day, especially shooting the ball," Illinois State coach Dan Muller said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "Certainly part of it was their defense, but part of it was us. ... We just got beat by a good team today. They played better than us."

By some measures, the Redbirds are a tournament team. Others, though, paint a bleaker outlook. The team can't do anything to change its perception as championship tournaments proceed.

That, in itself, is another strike as the Redbirds get ready to see their bubble burst. 

Stats and information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com.