The 2016 Heisman Trophy Dream Class That Never Was
ATLANTA — Heisman Trophy week was supposed to be a star-studded affair featuring the game's best and brightest shining in New York City.
With Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, Michigan linebacker Jabrill Peppers and Oklahoma's dynamic duo of quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Dede Westbrook named as finalists, we'll still get that.
Just not with the players we expected.
On Aug. 30, via OddsShark, the odds to win the 2016 Heisman Trophy included a who's who of established college football stars, including Watson, LSU running back Leonard Fournette, Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, Florida State running back Dalvin Cook, Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett and Georgia running back Nick Chubb.
| Leonard Fournette | LSU | +400 |
| Deshaun Watson | Clemson | +400 |
| Christian McCaffrey | Stanford | +550 |
| Dalvin Cook | Florida State | +750 |
| J.T. Barrett | Ohio State | +1000 |
| Jabrill Peppers | Michigan | +1200 |
| Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | +1200 |
| Nick Chubb | Georgia | +2500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Texas Tech | +2500 |
| Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | +2500 |
As Pete Fiutak of College Football News noted on Twitter, the Heisman race didn't go as planned.
We're just as guilty as everybody else for not recognizing how this competition could develop.
Our preseason "Heisman Squad" video did not mention Jackson, Peppers, Mayfield or Westbrook.
So what happened?
Jackson, who was +5000 (bet $100 to win $5,000) on Aug. 30—tied with Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, Texas A&M's Trevor Knight and, of all people, Malik Zaire of Notre Dame—had one of the best opening months in recent college football history.
"It's never won in September or October," ESPN's Chris Fowler told Bleacher Report. "Having said that, this might be the year when it's the closest thing to that."
He accounted for eight touchdowns in the first half against Charlotte in the season opener before taking the rest of the game off, ran for 199 yards and four touchdowns and produced a Heisman moment—leaping over a defender and scooting into the end zone—at Syracuse on a Friday night in Week 2 and scored 25 total touchdowns before the calendar flipped to October.
For perspective, that's more than four teams—UConn (20), Rutgers (23), Buffalo (24) and Fresno State (24)—scored this season.
"A year ago, he was put into the first game of the season and since then his attitude and preparation have allowed him to continue to grow and mature into a dynamic playmaker and a confident leader," Cardinals head coach Bobby Petrino said Monday. "This season, he stands apart and I congratulate him on the work he has done to become a Heisman Trophy finalist."
A combination of injuries and ineffectiveness turned the rest of the field into a jumbled mess.
Fournette sputtered out of the gate, suffering an ankle injury late in an opening-week loss to Wisconsin and re-injuring it three weeks later in a loss at Auburn. He never got going in the way he did last year, when he led the country with 162.8 rushing yards per game.
"This has been a very trying season, but I have continued to fight to play to the best of my ability," Fournette wrote in a letter to LSU fans Monday, in which he announced he will enter the 2017 NFL draft. "Each day I study and work and rehab with my coaches, trainers and teammates so that I can return to the field for the bowl game, and help our team bring another victory home."
McCaffrey had a similar issue.
He had an incredibly high standard to live up to after racking up 3,864 all-purpose yards a year ago and was ineffective in a blowout loss at Washington in late September, got banged up against Washington State a week later and missed the next game versus Notre Dame.
Quietly, he led the nation in all-purpose yards again in 2016 with 2,327. But that paled in comparison to what he's capable of, and the Cardinal didn't win enough games to remain nationally relevant.
"He would tell you that he's a better player than last year and head coach David Shaw would too," said Fowler. "But the Heisman is tied to team success in the ultimate team sport. None of these guys are here without a bunch of other guys contributing. Stanford struggled as a team, and he was the focal point of a lot of defenses early. We had the UCLA game. Games like that where they are just determined to smother him...that's what makes it harder to derail the quarterback who has his hands on the ball every play."
Cook polished off a stellar junior season with 1,620 yards, 18 touchdowns and six yards per carry behind an offensive line that didn't live up to expectations and a redshirt freshman quarterback in Deondre Francois who was new to the role. On top of that, Cook had 426 receiving yards and a score and finished the season as Florida State's second-most prolific receiver.
But Jackson and Watson were better options out of the ACC since they produced stellar seasons from the quarterback position (which is always a draw for Heisman voters) and helped their teams to wins over Cook's Seminoles.
"Every race has a different texture, and Jackson was so explosive, had those wow-factor plays and Louisville became a buzz team," Fowler said. "At the same time, guys like Fournette, Cook and others struggled early in the season. So Jackson seized the race."
You only get to vote for three players on the Heisman Trophy ballot. Is it a problem if all three players come from one conference? That's not something I considered when I filled out my ballot, but others might have made a point to be more geographically diverse.
With Barrett as the quarterback of a College Football Playoff team, you'd think he would have received more love.
He has himself to blame for not being in the discussion, however.
A game-changer when running with the ball, Barrett did not develop as a passer like many—myself included—thought he would. He finished sixth in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (202.3) and eighth in yards per attempt in conference games (6.5), according to cfbstats.
Nothing against these finalists.
Jackson is a bona fide freak. Watson is back after leading his team to its second straight College Football Playoff appearance. Peppers, Mayfield and Westbrook have filled the internet with some of the game's top highlights in 2016.
But with the star power the sport had going for it heading into the season and the accompanying expectations, things could have been so much better. Through no fault of its own, this Heisman Trophy class feels a bit underwhelming compared to what might have been.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats unless otherwise noted.
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