Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Carolina Panthers were upset 24-10 by the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 as 4.5-point chalk back in January, and they will be favored again in the rematch to kick off the 2016 NFL regular season Thursday night after the line steadily moved in their direction in the last few weeks.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as one-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-15.6 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

Carolina won five games in a row straight up against AFC teams before falling to Denver in the Super Bowl. The Panthers have won their last eight both SU and against the spread when favored by three points or fewer, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database, and they will be playing with revenge in mind against an inexperienced quarterback in Trevor Siemian, a former third-stringer who sat behind Peyton Manning and backup Brock Osweiler a year ago.

Carolina head coach Ron Rivera will make sure his defense pressures Siemian early and often in his first career start, and that could be enough to rattle him and prevent the Broncos from getting on track offensively at home.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver won the Super Bowl behind its defense, not Manning. While Siemian lacks the experience of Manning, he also cannot play much worse than his predecessor. The Broncos beat the Panthers for the fourth time in five meetings SU despite Manning’s play, and they can do it again here with the same type of performance defensively.

Reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton struggled against Von Miller and his teammates, and the Carolina signal-caller will likely face similar heat here as Denver looks to celebrate its Super Bowl victory in front of its fans.

Smart pick

With both defenses expected to take center stage, this looks to be another low-scoring matchup. Four of the previous five meetings between the teams finished below the total, and the Panthers have seen their past four regular-season openers go under as well.

The running games for the Broncos and Panthers may be responsible for generating all the offense unless the defenses find a way to score, so take the under.

Betting trends

The Panthers are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Broncos.

The Broncos are 25-4 SU in their last 29 games at home.

The Panthers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the AFC.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.