Kentucky Derby Odds 2016: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses

Did you get your mint?

Did you get your Maker’s Mark*?

Did you make your simple syrup?

Now that you’ve got that straightened out you can focus your hard-earned dollar on the horses. Yes, this is the annual betting guide and I’ll give you some tips and pointers.

But if that weren’t enough, I’m giving you a look at some dark horses—odds of 15-1 or higher—that could win this race.

No other race has this large of a field. Like ever. That leads to a Golden Corral style buffet of options. The trick is not to fill up your plate too much, so go easy on the mac & cheese there, Clyde.

In any case, you’ll find that the odds are based on Churchill Downs’ oddsmaker Mike Battaglia via KentuckyDerby.com.

With that said, let’s pony up.

*: I’m an ambassador. And, no, there’s financial stake or benefit. I did receive pretty slick MM biz cards.

Betting 100: The Basics

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

First, the script, the rundown, know thy wager.

1. Track
2. Race
3. Dollar Amount
4. Type of Bet
5. Number of the horse

For example, “Churchill Downs, Race 11, five dollars to win on the 18.”

Don’t say the horse’s name. Just don’t.

Win

Placing this bet means you want that horse to win and you only get paid if he wins, Captain Obvious.

Place

The horse must finish second or higher for you to cash a ticket. You get paid the "place" price even he wins.

Show

The horse must finish first, second or third. You get paid the "show" price even if he wins or places.

And one more thing…

If you win—and that’s a big "if" (speaking from experience here)—don’t run up to the teller asking to cash your ticket. Wait until the race is official and then go cash your ticket. You'll look like a first-rate amateur if you don't.

Betting 101: The Exotics

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Let's talk basic exotics, then we'll do a little math. 

Exacta

You picking the first- and second-place horses in order. You can box two horses in an exacta, and they can finish in any order as long as it is one-two. Naturally, the exacta box is more expensive because it is, at minimum, two bets on one ticket.

Trifecta

You pick the horses finishing one, two and three. Again, boxing this means the three horses (or more) can finish in any order as long as they finish inside the top three.

Superfecta

You pick the horses finishing one, two, three and four. The same rules apply for boxing them.

Cost of Boxing

Here’s a tidbit you won’t find many places, and it’ll keep you from getting too overzealous. That way when you go to the betting window you won’t get smacked across the cheek with $128 betting ticket that you’ll humbly and embarrassingly decline.

Here it goes with the simplest bet: the exacta box.

[(Total horses bet) x (total horses bet - 1)] x dollar amount.

If you want to exacta box three horses for a $2 bet, this is what it would look like:

[Three x (three - 1)] x $2 = $12 for the bet.

For a trifecta box, you add one more set of figures and subtract two from the total horses bet:

[Three x (three - 1) x (three - 2)] x $2 = $12.

For a superfecta box, it looks like this:

[Four x (four - 1) x (four - 2) x (four - three)] x $2 = $24.

You can start to see how pricing escalates with how many horses you choose to box. Pick wisely and wipe that mathematical cold sweat off your face.

Betting 301: Multi-Race Wagering

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

As if one race weren’t enough to handicap, there’s wagering that covers multiple races. These are far easier to calculate.

You may see that there are “rolling Daily Doubles” or “rolling Pick 3s.” All that means is that you can start a Daily Double or a Pick 3 on any race.

Daily Double (Rolling)

Pick the winner in two consecutive races.

You may hear people say, “Daily Double starting with Race 1. Single the three in the first with the five, eight, nine in the second.”

Pick 3 (Rolling)

Pick the winner in three straight races.

Pick 4 (Start on Races 2, 4 and 8)

Sensing a pattern? Pick the winner in four straight races.

Pick 5 (Starts on Race 7)

You get the idea.

Pick 6 (Starts on Race 6)

The holy grail of handicapping. Hitting a Pick 6 takes skill and, more often than not, quite a bit of money to cover your bases. Read Steven Crist’s Exotic Betting for a great trip down the handicapping rabbit hole.

What’s the Cost?

For a Pick 3, it’s the (Total number of horses bet) x (total number of horses bet) x (total number horses bet) x dollar amount.

For every race, just keep multiplying out the total number for that race.

A Pick 6 can be as low as $2 or as high as several thousand.

Dark-Horse Contender: Mo Tom

Some horses you know who they are.

Take Danzing Candy. He will shoot for the lead. That’s what he does.

As for Mo Tom? We don’t entirely know who he is because in his two biggest prep races, he’s had to put on the brakes. We never got to see the fullness of Mo Tom.

The question becomes, can jockey Corie Lanerie get Mo Tom into that long, surging stride?

Tom Amoss, Mo Tom’s trainer, said in Frank Angst’s Bloodhorse.com story:

"

The thing about Mo Tom is that he has this switch; he turns it off out of the gate and relaxes, but when you turn that switch on, he goes in a hurry. I think it has surprised a lot of people. With Corey on him, he knows that when he turns that switch on, it's go time.

Corey also knows how long he can carry that kick, and it's more than the average horse. Those aren't things you can describe to a rider who has never ridden him in a race.

"

John Pricci of Horse Race Insider, one of the nation’s best handicappers, said:

"

Sadly for his connections, has become the stuff of trip-handicapping legend, such were the nightmares he encountered in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. Those losses were a combination of deep closer style and pilot error, mostly the latter. Despite it, Tom Amoss has retained recent perennial Churchill leader Corey Lanerie. Perhaps he gets clear sailing Saturday but the question remains whether he can get there fast enough. 

"

Mo Tom will be running late. He’s had traffic problems in the past, so if Lanerie can navigate that, he could get up for a piece.

Odds: 20-1

Dark-Horse Contender: Destin

Destin, as I’ve said before, is the most interesting horse in this field.

His trainer, Todd Pletcher, took a different route with this colt. Knowing that winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby granted him enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby gate, Pletcher chose not to race Destin until now.

Pletcher said in Tim Wilkin’s TimesUnion.com story:

"

If we put another race in, it might not allow him to make another move forward ... Taking a shot in the (Kentucky) Derby was the goal. Leaving out a significant Grade I race in between ... everyone was comfortable with that. You could not do it with a lot of horses, but he has a different foundation.

"

Destin broke a track record that day going 8.5 furlongs. He’s never raced farther than that distance, so the big question deals with seasoning, not his speed.

He’s been training well, so at least there are positive signs that he’ll run his best race.

He’s 15-1 on the morning line, but that should creep up to 20-1-ish.

Odds: 15-1

Dark-Horse Contender: Suddenbreakingnews

Suddenbreakingnews was running like a freight train in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby.

If you watch the replay at the top of the stretch, you’ll see a colt making a huge move on the outside. That was Suddenbreakingnews swinging about six-wide into the center of the track.

John Pricci of Horse Race Insider said:

"

He’s arguably the strongest late runner in a field loaded with them. But he’s no plodder. In winning the 7-furlong Clever Trevor Stakes at 2 he was 4-1/2 lengths behind a half-mile of 44 3/5. He will race in the Derby with a shadow roll, a nose-band that acts similarly to blinkers by promoting better focus. Intriguing colt wasn't helped by inside draw, but may not be hurt too given his style.

"

He spotted the leaders—and the eventual winner—a lot of ground. That suggests that this horse can get the distance, and if he gets a trip that helps save him ground—he breaks from Post 2—then he’s a got a shot at hitting the board, maybe even winning the race.

Odds: 20-1

The Favorite: Nyquist

Nyquist is a deserving favorite among these colts.

He’s unbeaten in seven career starts and gets a favorable post-position right in the middle of the field (13).

John Pricci, writing for Horse Race Insider, said:

"

Nyquist is far from the “fastest” favorite in Derby history but is among the winningest. Consequently, he cannot be eliminated with certitude by any measure. He has done what he needed to do and merits extreme respect. Being handled brilliantly, his style suits Derby 142’s pace hungry dynamics. He may not be “the bet” but remains "the horse to beat.” Given the speed drawn to his outside, a sharp break may prove critical.

"

There are many reasons why he’ll lose and why I don’t particularly like him.

Only one horse has ever won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby.

His pedigree spits in the face of endurance.

He has raced around two turns only once in his three-year-old year.

But he’s got experience in his corner with his trainer, jockey and owner. The three of them won this race (and the Preakness) in 2012 with I’ll Have Another.

Odds: 3-1

Prediction

Ringo H.W. Chiu/Associated Press

I’m sticking with the predictions I made after the post draw.

Any one of these dark horses mentioned here could get up for a piece and if they did it wouldn’t surprise me.

1. Mor Spirit

2. Exaggerator

3. Nyquist

4. Brody’s Cause