Kentucky Derby Picks 2016: Predictions for Projected Lineup at Churchill Downs

The sport of horse racing went through a seemingly never-ending drought when it came to Triple Crown winners until American Pharoah set the sport on its ear by winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmon Stakes a year ago.

Can Nyquist do the same thing this year?  

After the sport had endured a 37-year dry spell between Triple Crown winners Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah last year, it may seem ludicrous to suggest that a repeat one year later is a possibility.

However, Nyquist has won all seven of his races, and he clearly has shown the ability to get to the front and stay there every time he goes to the post.

Horse	Points	Odds
Gun Runner	151	10-1
Nyquist	130	10-3
Exaggerator	126	8-1
Outwork	120	20-1
Brody's Cause	114	12-1
Creator	110	20-1
Lani	100	30-1
Mor Spirit	84	18-1
Mohaymen	80	8-1
Danzing Candy	60	25-1
Destin	51	14-1
Suddenbreakingnews	50	16-1
Oscar Nominated	50	N/A
Shagaf	50	25-1
Whitmore	44	50-1
Tom's Ready	44	50-1
My Man Sam	40	25-1
Majesto	40	N/A
Trojan Nation	40	N/A
Mo Tom	32	16-1

Nyquist is the 10-3 Kentucky Derby favorite, according to Odds Shark, and he wants to be fairly close to the front-runners in the early part of the race before he turns it on down the stretch. The first race of the Triple Crown will be held Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Nyquist prefers to stalk the pace, and that's normally the way to find success in the Kentucky Derby because of the crowded 20-horse field. It's often difficult for come-from-behind horses to negotiate the traffic when mounting their runs, so Nyquist can avoid that problem by staying close to the front.

There are a lot of reasons to like Nyquist, but in an article for Countdown to the Crown, Jeremy Plonk pointed out that the 1 1/4-mile distance may not be ideal for the favorite. While he has won $3.3 million to this point in his career, he could tire in deep stretch and give rallying horses a chance to get past him. 

That's why Exaggerator (8-1), Mohaymen (8-1) and Gun Runner (10-1) may all have a legitimate chance to win the Run for the Roses. 

Gun Runner has been impressive during his campaign, having won the Louisiana Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen. Gun Runner breezed one-half mile in 50.40 seconds Monday, and the trainer is happy with the way his horse has been progressing. 

"I've been very happy with the trajectory that he's shown to this point. Saying that, we also know we need to be better," Asmussen told Frank Angst of the Blood-Horse. "We feel like we're in the process of (getting better). The Louisiana Derby was a nice step in the right direction and we're expecting another step in the right direction."

Gun Runner has won four of his five races, and his only loss came on a sloppy track last fall at Churchill Downs.

Exaggerator is coming off a first-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby April 9, and that victory came on the heels of a second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes and a third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes in February and March, respectively.

Exaggerator's consistency against strong fields has been impressive, and trainer Keith Desormeaux appears to have the horse ready. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, the trainer's brother, believes the horse is special, and he said as much after the Santa Anita Derby, per Jonathan Lintner of Louisville Courier-Journal:

"

He’s that caliber of horse, and it’s extra special to be with Keith, and we don’t even talk too much. It’s all quite understood. All he said in the paddock was, 'Kent, I’m telling you that I’ve never seen this horse so confident.' When I galloped off once I was on the track, he took to the track like a duck to water. He never missed a beat and he showed it winning today.

"

Mohaymen finished fourth to Nyquist in the Florida Derby, and he may be overlooked as a result. That's fine with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, because the pressure has been dissipated. Mohaymen had won his previous five races.

Mohaymen took a wide route in the Florida Derby and while he challenged Nyquist around the far turn, he had little to offer down the stretch and ultimately flattened out. 

McLaughlin pointed out that his horse ran a bit further than Nyquist as a result of running on the outside. "No. 1, I think we were on the worst part of the track," McLaughlin told David Grening of the Daily Racing Form (via ESPN.com). "No. 2, we traveled 54 feet farther [than Nyquist] on the worst part of the track. No one was going to win from out there."

Nyquist is the favorite in the days leading up to Kentucky Derby, but the odds are likely to fluctuate as Saturday's race approaches.