Freshman Phenoms Need Not Apply to Final Four...at Least for This Year
HOUSTON — Other than the Oklahoma Sooners' Buddy Hield, the most talked-about players in Houston this week aren't the ones who will compete in the 2016 Final Four.
Instead, they're the ones who won't.
For the first time in recent memory, college basketball's marquee event is void of one-and-dones—guys who leave college after their inaugural season and enter the NBA draft.
In fact, only two of the projected starters for Villanova, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Syracuse are freshmen. And neither Jalen Brunson (Villanova) nor Malachi Richardson (Syracuse) are projected first-rounders who are expected to bolt early.
"The teams that are senior-dominated are starting to take over now," said former Auburn and NBA star Charles Barkley, an analyst for Turner Sports, to a group of reporters Friday. "There are no monster freshmen classes. I actually like it.
"I want these kids to stay in school as long as possible to get their education."
As much as it helps in the classroom, the extra time in school is also paying dividends on the court.
The North Carolina Tar Heels—the lone remaining No. 1 seed—start two sophomores, a junior and two seniors who are motivated by past NCAA tournament shortcomings that included a loss in last season's Sweet 16.
"We have the type of hunger that would be hard for a freshman to understand," senior guard Marcus Paige said.
Two juniors and two seniors start alongside Brunson at Villanova, while two of Syracuse's top three scorers (Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney) are seniors.
Perhaps no team has better chemistry than Oklahoma, whose lineup features four players who have started 104 consecutive games.
One of them is Hield, who bypassed the 2015 NBA draft to return for his senior season. The decision paid off. Not just for Hield, a first-team All-American who averages 25.4 points per game. But also for the Sooners, who are in the Final Four for the first time since 2002.
So cohesive is the backcourt of Hield, Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins that sometimes their actions are almost like second nature.
"We don't even have to say anything on the court now," Woodard said. "Buddy and Isaiah…they're close. They've been roommates this whole time.
"If I miss them on a pass, I just give them a nod like, 'I got you next time,' without saying anything. They already know. Sometimes I take it for granted because it comes so naturally."
Michigan State Spartans senior Denzel Valentine, the Associated Press Player of the Year, said a player who spends four years in school reaches a maturity level—most mentally and physically—that hardly any players experience as freshmen.
"I'm not knocking this season's freshmen, but it was cool to see the seniors steal the show," Valentine said to reporters at the Final Four Thursday. "Sometimes people forget about the process. It gets overlooked. We want things right now, right now. Sometimes it takes longer than right now. That's the beauty of learning about yourself as a man and handling your business and maturing."
Indeed, unlike past years, some of the most successful players in the country this season were upperclassmen, such as Perry Ellis (Kansas), Georges Niang (Iowa State), Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga), Brice Johnson (North Carolina), Kris Dunn (Providence) and Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia).
"The two best basketball players in the world right now—Steph Curry and Kawhi Leonard—stayed in school more than one year," Barkley said. "There's this thing where all these kids feel like they only have to stay in college one year. It's really hurting [the NBA].
"We've got guys who can't play coming into the league after one year. The quality of basketball is awful. We have six good teams in the NBA. We can't sustain our business model by charging people outrageous sums of money and then putting a crappy product out there. We're going to kill our product.
"The NBA is full of men. You can't keep sending these little kids to play against men. It's not fair to them."
Still, as much as he'd like to pretend the wave of upperclassmen dominating college basketball is the start of a trend, Barkley—along with his colleagues and college basketball coaches—realizes that isn't the case.
Simply put, the 2015 freshman class was relatively weak.
There were no standouts such as Jahlil Okafor, who led Duke to last season's NCAA title. Or Karl-Anthony Towns, who helped fuel Kentucky to a 38-1 record. Towns, Okafor and Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell were the first three picks in last summer's NBA draft.
"This is the first year in a while that the standout freshmen aren't playing like seniors, they're playing like juniors and sophomores," said former NBA guard Kenny Smith, who works alongside Barkley at Turner Sports. "But I don't think this signifies a changing of the guard. That's just how it was this season.
"At the end of the day, I just want to see great basketball. Whether it comes from Kentucky's freshmen like it did last year or Wisconsin's seniors like it did last year, I'm fine."
That's not to say college basketball didn't have its share of standout freshmen in 2015-16. But in many cases, they simply played for the wrong teams. Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are both projected lottery picks, but when they signed with the Cal Bears, they all but eliminated their chances of playing in the Final Four.
So did McDonald's All Americans such as Malik Newman (Mississippi State) and Stephen Zimmerman (UNLV). Duke's Brandon Ingram, projected by some as the No. 1 pick in this summer's NBA draft, had a solid season. But injuries and roster turnover at Duke decreased his chances of reaching the Final Four. Duke lost in the Sweet 16.
No one had it worse than Ben Simmons, easily the most hyped freshman in the NCAA. In what proved to be a terrible decision, Simmons signed with LSU (in part because his godfather coached there), received a questionable level of coaching and ended up missing the NCAA tournament altogether.
"I think he should stay in school another year," said Barkley, who chuckled when reminded that Simmons went to class so little that he wasn't even eligible for the Wooden Award because he failed to meet the academic requirements.
Whatever the case, even with the small amount of freshman stars at this year's Final Four, don't be surprised if things are back to normal a year from now.
Seven of the top 10 players projected to go in the 2017 NBA draft will be freshmen next season. That includes Duke signees Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles, who are predicted to go No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
"I think it's cyclical," Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self told reporters Friday. "The best players give you the best chance to win. Who knows how the pieces are going to fit each year?
"This next recruiting class is a very, very well thought of class. There may be many guys that are impactful and have All-American-type years. Still, even when you look back, you may have some young guys lead, but the foundation of your program is always going to be guys who have been in your program and understand how things work and can help coach the young guys.
"I think a blend (of youth and experience) is probably the best secret for success."
Jason King covers college sports for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JasonKingBR
