2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of Kansas' Cheick Diallo
Freshman center Cheick Diallo is as big a mystery now as he was the day he stepped foot on the University of Kansas campus.
Some can overlook the fact that he has yet to produce on the college level or even play real minutes—he has a DNP (coach's decision) and has played over 20 minutes in a game only once all year.
"He's a hard-working great kid that is very raw offensively and it's going to take some time to develop, but he has the prototypical NBA size and athleticism and flexibility that you like in the new NBA," an NBA scout told B/R.
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| Age | 19 (Born Sept. 19, 1996) |
| Team | Kansas |
| Height | 6'9" |
| Weight | 220 |
Some are just too wary of the fact that he hasn't been able to get consistent minutes at Kansas.
"It'd be really dangerous for him to enter the draft, in my opinion," another scout said.
But even the scout who would caution Diallo to declare this year concedes that it's plausible a team would draft him in the first round based off his reputation and his motor, and thus in what's considered a thin draft class, Diallo is a candidate to leave after one year at KU.
The circumstances surrounding his time at Kansas have definitely muddied the scouting report. He was put behind schedule because of an NCAA investigation that forced him to miss KU's exhibition games and the first five regular-season games. That was a time when Diallo may have had a chance to play through mistakes against lesser competition and get comfortable in KU's system.
Since gaining his eligibility, Diallo has struggled in a structured setting and has yet to gain the trust of KU coach Bill Self, getting beat out for minutes by two upperclassmen who will likely never play a minute in the NBA. His status in KU's rotation could change, but it's possible he never gets consistent playing time this season, and that leaves much to the imagination of scouts.
The good news for Diallo, if he does have his heart set on declaring for the draft, he'll get sort of a second chance to prove himself. The NCAA's new rule that allows college players to attend the NBA draft combine, get feedback from the league and then decide whether to stay in school or declare allows Diallo the chance to get in front of NBA scouts and make an informed decision.
Let's take a look at what we know now based off a small sample size at Kansas.
Relevant stats
| 8.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 57.4 | 54.5 | 24.9 | 9.3 | 9.5 |
Since Diallo hasn't played many minutes, it doesn't make much sense to pay attention to his averages. The advanced numbers suggest that Diallo is an excellent defensive rebounder and a solid shot-blocker. If he had played enough minutes to qualify, his defensive rebounding percentage would rank 47th nationally and his block rate (percentage of opponent's two-point attempts he blocks) would rank 39th, according to kenpom.com.
It's hard to put too much stock in those numbers either, however, because of the limited sample size.
Strengths
The one thing that Diallo has proved, even in limited minutes, is that he plays extremely hard and has what's often described as a high motor. That's evident in the way he runs the floor in both directions.
Diallo has good speed for his size, and the combination of running hard and being faster than most the guys he's matched up against should lead to easy buckets.
That was on display last spring in the high school all-star game circuit, where Diallo won MVP in both the McDonald's All-American Game and the Jordan Brand Classic, averaging 22 points and 10.5 rebounds in the two games.
It's not surprising that Diallo did well in those free-flowing settings, but that's not exactly real basketball.
On the offensive end, Diallo is still very raw, but there are a few things to get excited about. He's shown off a developing mid-range shot at KU. It doesn't look great coming off his hand and his shot is flat, but it goes in enough to suggest he can be a threat in that area of the floor.
"He's coachable, so you're hoping that his skill set will extend beyond being simply a roller and finisher around the basket," the first scout said.
Diallo has the quickness and length to be a factor on the defensive end as well. He's able to block shots as a help defender and also has had a few impressive blocks against his man trying to score in the post.
Diallo's defensive rebounding is the area of the game where he's most ready to contribute at both the college and pro level. He rebounds outside of his area and is aggressive going after rebounds.
Weaknesses
Diallo's inability to learn KU's offense (see video above) or understand defensive concepts are what has kept him from getting on the floor.
"He plays really, really hard. He tries to defend but he's like playing center field all the time," the second scout said. "He's operating outside of their scheme defensively, which gets the team in trouble. He'll wildly flail for a steal or blocked shot and puts his teammate in a rotation that he's not prepared for."
It's also difficult for Diallo to hold his ground against thicker players. When Self tried to give Diallo a shot against West Virginia's Devin Williams on Tuesday night, Williams was able to bury Diallo deep in the post and score with ease.
On the offensive end, Diallo's lack of skill level at 6'9" is a concern. He's the size of a power forward but plays more like a center. While his mid-range jumper shows some promise, the NBA is trending toward more skill at the power forward position.
Diallo isn't comfortable making plays off the dribble, and it's hard to imagine that's a part of his game he's going to develop. While he could become a decent shooter from the mid-range, it's hard to envision that he develops three-point range.
Assuming he progresses enough mentally to hold his own on defense, it could be difficult to find lineups where he fits. It would make sense to play Diallo with a center who likes to play on the perimeter and shoot jumpers. That's just not an easy match to find.
Diallo's limitations are not deal-breakers for making the league, but as someone who is an upside pick, there's a cap on his upside.
NBA Player Comparison
The player that Diallo's game and body resemble the most in the NBA is Houston's Clint Capela.
"He's like a half inch shorter, a half inch not as long, but basically you're looking at a Clint Capela right now, which I think a lot of teams would be fine with," the first scout said.
Diallo has similar tools—speed for his position, length, shot-blocking instincts and a high motor—that have made Capela a valuable asset for the Rockets.
Best-case scenario
That he becomes a Capela clone.
Capela has thrived as a high-motor center coming off the bench for the Rockets this season and has even been a part-time starter. If Diallo gets a better feel for how to stay on the floor, he could play a similar role on the right team.
Worst-case scenario
The danger in leaving before he ever produces at Kansas is that Diallo will enter the NBA far from ready, and the likelihood that he is out of the league after his first contract increases. And that's assuming he gets a contract.
Kansas has had two other high-ranking recruits who weren't major contributors as freshmen but still left after one year anyway: Josh Selby and Cliff Alexander.
Selby, who Rivals.com ranked the No. 1 player in the 2010 class, was drafted 49th by the Grizzlies in 2011, and he played in 38 games over two seasons. He's now playing professionally in Turkey.
It's too soon to call Alexander a bust in the league, but he's not off to a great start. He went undrafted in 2015 but did get a two-year contract with Portland. He's played only seven games and registered 31 minutes so far as a rookie.
And here's what's scary for Diallo: Both Selby and Alexander put up better numbers and had bigger roles while at KU.
| Josh Selby, 2010-11 | 20.4 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Cliff Alexander, 2014-15 | 17.6 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| Cheick Diallo, 2015-16 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
Another recent player who faced similar circumstances as Diallo was former Florida big man Chris Walker. Walker was a consensus top-10 recruit and also had to deal with eligibility issues, missing the first half of his freshman season. As a sophomore last year, he averaged 4.7 points and 3.5 rebounds in 14.6 minutes per game, and despite those modest numbers, he declared for the draft.
Walker went undrafted and has yet to play in the NBA this season. He has shown some promise in the D-League.
The lesson for Diallo is that being a highly ranked player out of high school doesn't guarantee you an opportunity in the league.
March Impact
While scouts put varying degrees of importance on a player's performance in the NCAA tournament, with the eyes of the nation on March Madness, playing well or poorly in the most important games of the season can certainly sway one's opinions. Some players like the UConn Huskies' Shabazz Napier have used the tournament as a springboard to rise up draft boards in recent years.
If Diallo's able to gain Self's trust, he has the ability to be a difference-maker for the Jayhawks, particularly on the defensive end. Diallo gives KU some rim protection that the current bigs aren't providing. This is the worst shot-blocking team Self has had at KU, and that's a problem because KU's perimeter defense has struggled to keep opposing guards out of the paint.
Diallo could certainly help on that end, but he needs to improve his understanding of team defensive concepts to even get that opportunity.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that Diallo progresses enough over the next month to become a regular and then helps KU go on a run in March, although it appears at this point to be unlikely. If Diallo is able to figure his way onto the floor and produces, it will decrease the uncertainty around him and would likely improve his draft stock.
Prediction
KU big men with NBA talent have traditionally made a leap from their freshman to sophomore seasons. Cole Aldrich is one in particular who would be a good example for Diallo, as he also played limited minutes as a freshman and then blew up his sophomore season and was a lottery pick when he came out after his junior year.
| Darrell Arthur, freshman | 19.0 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| Arthur, sophomore | 24.7 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 1.3 |
| Cole Aldrich, freshman | 8.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| Aldrich, sophomore | 29.6 | 14.9 | 11.1 | 2.7 |
| Marcus Morris, freshman | 18.5 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 0.3 |
| Marcus Morris, sophomore | 24.7 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 0.3 |
| Markieff Morris, freshman | 15.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
| Markieff Morris, sophomore | 17.6 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| Thomas Robinson, freshman | 7.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Robinson, sophomore | 14.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 0.7 |
For the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson, they blew up their junior seasons when their opportunity increased. The timeline is different for everyone, but Self has a track record of developing big men and getting them drafted. Every player in the chart was a first-round pick.
"With another year to develop and a chance to be part of KU's starting lineup and rotation and learn how to make winning plays in high-pressure environments, he can increase his stock," a third scout told B/R of Diallo. "There's a really strong argument for him to stay."
There's also some risk in staying. Self has already signed 4-star center Udoka Azubuike, per 247Sports, and also returns Landen Lucas, who is currently ahead of Diallo on the depth chart. At the power forward spot, fellow freshman Carlton Bragg is already further along than Diallo as a college player and makes more sense at that position in KU's system.
Diallo could end up in a similar spot that he is in this year, and scouts may lose faith in his potential if he's sitting the bench as a sophomore. KU sophomore wing Svi Mykhailiuk is going through a similar experience right now.
As long as Diallo doesn't do anything at the combine to hurt his value, getting drafted in the first round seems like a possibility.
"It's a weak draft, so if he did well at workouts and at the combine, he'll be able to play himself into the first round," the third scout said. "But he'd probably be better-served coming back and proving he can contribute to a college team."
If Diallo receives word that one or multiple teams in the first round plan on drafting him if he's there, he could decide he would rather develop while getting paid than risk the chance that he's a fringe rotation player at KU again next season. I think the lure of guaranteed money will be too much to pass up, and Diallo will end up getting drafted in the late 20s by a team that can afford to wait and see if he develops.
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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