San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos hold the bragging rights in the recent rivalry with the San Diego Chargers, going 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread over the last nine meetings. With a division title and playoff seeding still at stake, the Broncos hook up with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon in Denver.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 40 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.5-13.6 Broncos

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Despite just playing out the string on another lost season, San Diego is showing some heart, going 3-0 ATS in its last three games. Last week, the Chargers led the Oakland Raiders almost the entire game, eventually losing 23-20 in overtime but hanging on for the cover as four-point road dogs.

San Diego led the Raiders 17-12 and had the ball late in the third quarter, but a lost fumble turned the entire game around. On the day, the Chargers outgained Oakland 343-281, the second game in a row they outgained their opponent, which is saying something for San Diego this season.

Two weeks ago, the Chargers gave one of their best performances of this season in a 30-14 victory over the Miami Dolphins. And just before that, they gave the Kansas City Chiefs a tough game at Arrowhead, losing 10-3 but covering the 11 points. In fact, San Diego is now 5-0 ATS over its last five road games.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are now 2-2 both SU and ATS since losing Peyton Manning to injury after outlasting the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime Sunday night 20-17. Denver trailed early 14-0, rallied to take a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter on a 39-yard touchdown bolt by C.J. Anderson and then later won in extra time on a Brandon McManus field goal and fumble recovery.

For the night, the Broncos outrushed the Bengals 113-108 and outgained them 390-294. So that's six games in a row, four of them started by backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, that Denver has outgained and outrushed its opponents.

The Broncos have already clinched a playoff berth, but they can still win the AFC West, earn a first-round bye and even claim the top seed in the AFC with a victory and various degrees of help Sunday.

Smart pick

Denver beat the Chargers four weeks ago 17-3, limiting San Diego to just 272 yards of offense, covering the six points. And the Broncos haven't really missed much with the change at quarterback. The smart money here dines with Denver.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against the Broncos.

The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road.

The Broncos are 21-3 SU in their last 24 games against their division.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.