Washington Redskins Must Have the Right Answer for Buffalo Bills' Sammy Watkins
How do you cover and contain a wide receiver who has caught 14 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games?
That's the challenge facing the Washington Redskins as they prepare to host the Buffalo Bills and star wideout Sammy Watkins in Week 15.
Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News put Watkins' recent dominance into context among the league's most prolific pass-catchers:
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"Since the bye week, Watkins ranks No. 3 league-wide in receiving with 569 yards, only trailing Odell Beckham Jr. (666) and Antonio Brown (679).
His 20.3 yards per catch over this span ranks first. In the face of scrutiny, of a social-media firestorm Watkins elevated his game to a new level.
"
Washington defensive coordinator Joe Barry has two distinct approaches from which to choose. He could go with the plan often favored by New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. Alternatively, Barry can adopt the strategy the Redskins used during their glory days with All-Pro cover man Darrell Green.
The Bill Belichick Approach
Conventional wisdom would say to simply put your best cornerback on Watkins. But Belichick is rarely conventional.
Instead, the Lord of the Hoodie often chooses a different method, one Ben Volin of the Boston Globe detailed when the Patriots took on DeAndre Hopkins and the Houston Texans in Week 14:
Rather than put Malcolm Butler one-on-one with Hopkins, Belichick had Logan Ryan press the marquee receiver underneath while a safety stayed over the top.
The tactic's effectiveness showed up on Houston's first third-down play of the night. Ryan was rolled up on Hopkins, while Duron Harmon was hovering over the top:
Ryan and Harmon formed and maintained a bracket around Hopkins as soon as he came out of his break.
With a corner in press and a safety over the top, Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer was reluctant to force the ball Hopkins' way, despite immediately staring down the receiver.
New England's double coverage meant he had to examine his other reads and hold on to the ball. Defensive tackle Dominique Easley took advantage by sacking Hoyer for an eight-yard loss.
This play was just the start of a pattern that stayed consistent all night. Hopkins always faced some form of double coverage.
Many were of the corner-and-safety variety, like this one highlighted by NBC Sports' analyst Cris Collinsworth:
At other times, the Pats got a little more creative by mixing up their personnel to help double Hopkins, as Volin described:
Hopkins was stymied by the consistent brackets around him. He was targeted just six times and made only three catches, according to ESPN.com, both season lows.
The lack of involvement left No. 10 visibly irked, according to Volin:
A frustrated receiver is a quiet and ineffective one. That's what the Redskins need to make Watkins look like this week.
He hasn't been shy about expressing his frustration this season. Back in mid-October, he demanded "10 targets per game," according to another Buffalo News article by Dunne.
What might deter Barry from this approach is how Watkins has been beating double coverage in recent weeks. He split the corner and safety bracket for a huge play against the Texans in Week 13.
Buffalo's official Twitter feed provided this highlight:
Dunne pointed out how Watkins has been thriving even when a defense uses safety help to try to contain him:
"He had a point all along, proving he can create space even when a safety lurks over the top. In the 23-20 loss at Philadelphia, Watkins toasted a pressing Byron Maxwell with an outside release and hauled in a 47-yard touchdown before safety Ed Reynolds arrived. The week prior, he caught two 53-yarders. On one, Watkins was sandwiched between two defenders.
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Given how he's undermined double coverage, the Redskins may reach into their past for a riskier alternative to keep Watkins in check.
The Box-and-1
Going box-and-one, with a single cornerback matched up in man coverage, while the rest of the secondary plays zone, is a staple of Washington's glorious past.
During the halcyon days of Joe Gibbs' first tenure in charge, defensive boss Richie Petitbon employed this formula, often leaning on the skills of his shutdown ace, Green.
Of course, things are different for today's team. For one thing, this vintage of the Burgundy and Gold doesn't boast a legitimate shutdown cover man.
But the Redskins may have one young star who is getting closer to that status.
Second-year man Bashaud Breeland had made tremendous strides lately. His progress is reflected in recent Pro Football Focus numbers:
Barry may trust the surge in Breeland's development enough to let 2014's fourth-rounder lock up Watkins one-on-one. He would take his cue from Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks.
The motor-mouthed press-cover specialist has shown both the good and the bad of the box-and-one approach at times this season.
It worked like a charm against the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 8, when Sherman matched up exclusively with Dez Bryant. One of the best examples came on 3rd-and-9 in the second quarter.
For a rare time, Sherman had moved from his familiar side of the field, evidence of his commitment to shadow Bryant wherever he went:
Sherman quickly clamped on Bryant. On the other side of the field, Seattle adopted a loose zone shell, creating a four-on-three numbers advantage.
Because they trusted Sherman to handle Bryant by himself, the Seahawks could afford to commit extra coverage on the other side.
Their faith was well-placed, as Sherman stayed stuck to No. 88.
He soon turned away the pass meant for Bryant.
This ploy demands bravery from a defensive staff. Barry and his coaches must trust Breeland to hold up in a duel that will look inviting to Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
But Barry should be wary about trusting Breeland too much. Trusting any cornerback to handle Watkins one-on-one is risky business. He proved that when he burned Sean Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8, with one of his many big plays captured by Buffalo's official Twitter account:
The box-and-one approach also carries other risks the Bills could ruthlessly exploit.
A major weakness was exposed against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. Seattle tasked Sherman with keeping Antonio Brown under wraps.
Yet while Sherman stayed glued to No. 84, space was available for the other members of Pittsburgh's dangerous contingent of receivers. Martavis Bryant exploited that space for 40 yards on 3rd-and-3 in the third quarter.
With Sherman shadowing Brown to his unfamiliar side of the field, Bryant was matched up with DeShawn Shead. Notice how the Seahawks had shifted most of their coverage toward Bryant:
Seattle put a bracket on the underneath receiver and had the deep safety drift toward the two-receiver side.
But the single-high safety had too much ground to cover. The Seahawks had tried to be cute by showing a safety hovering over Brown and then having him rotate away once the ball was snapped.
Pittsburgh took advantage of its knowledge that Sherman would be trusted one-on-one.
Even if Breeland could lock up Watkins and keep him quiet, the Bills' "other" receivers will be too good for simple zone shells to contain.
Like the Steelers, Buffalo boasts a strong and deep unit of receivers. Their supporting pass-catchers can certainly make Washington pay for sacrificing its best cover man to take exclusive care of Watkins.
Robert Woods and Chris Hogan are both dangerous supplementary playmakers. Woods has 43 catches for 508 yards on the season, with five of those grabs and 106 of those yards coming last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Meanwhile, Hogan has averaged a respectable 12.4 yards a catch this season. It would be a mistake to think simple zone shells will contain both of these threats.
Given how productive Woods is, Washington would be best served putting Breeland over him. That means opting for the Belichick approach to containing Watkins.
Surround Taylor's primary big-play threat with numbers, while nullifying his get-out target with their marquee cover man: That's how Washington's defense can give Taylor nowhere to go with the ball.
But this approach has to come with a caveat. The underneath coverage on Watkins can never be soft. He must be pressed at the line and never allowed a clean release. Being physical underneath and keeping coverage over the top is the key combination.
Buffalo's passing game is a big-play attack. The Bills have hit 41 plays of 20 yards or more through the air, with 11 going for 40 or more, according to the league's official site.
Watkins has four catches worth 95 yards and a quartet of scores on passes thrown 21-30 yards, according to ESPN.com. The same site also noted how he has three catches for 119 yards and touchdown on passes covering 31-40 yards, with five grabs for 261 yards and a score on passes over 41 yards.
Shutting down Watkins is the key to keeping Taylor's vertical strikes in check. Showing No. 14 some form of double coverage on every snap is the best way to do it.
Statistics and player information via NFL.com, unless otherwise stated.
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