Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Philadelphia is supposed to be a tough place for opposing teams to play, but the Eagles are just 2-5 both straight up and against the spread in their last seven times out in front of their home crowd.

The Buffalo Bills hope to take advantage of that trend when they visit Philly on Sunday afternoon.

Point Spread: The Eagles opened as one-point favorites. The total was 46.5 early in the week.

Odds Shark Computer Pick: Eagles 24.3, Bills 23.8

Why the Bills Can Cover the Spread

Buffalo snapped a two-game losing skid with a 30-21 victory over Houston last week. The Bills took an early 7-0 lead, allowed the Texans to tie the game at 21-21 in the fourth quarter, then won the game on Tyrod Taylor's third touchdown toss of the day—a 40-yard hookup with tight end Charles Clay with just under two minutes to go.

On the day, Buffalo rushed for 187 yards to Houston's 126, as LeSean McCoy came up with his third 100-yard effort in his last five games.

The Bills are now 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS this season in games Taylor has started.

Why the Eagles Can Cover the Spread

Philly just pulled off one of the stunners of this NFL season so far, upsetting the Patriots 35-28 in Foxboro. The Eagles spotted New England a 14-0 lead, then scored five unanswered touchdowns—two on offense, two on special teams and one on defense—to take a 35-14 lead.

The Patriots then scored twice to pull within seven points, but Philly hung on for the outright victory as a nine-point underdog.

Quarterback Sam Bradford, back after missing two games with a shoulder injury, threw two touchdown passes without a pick, while running back Darren Sproles produced 100 yards from scrimmage and scored on an 83-yard punt return.

The Eagles are now 5-5 both SU and ATS in games Bradford has started this season, compared to 0-2 both SU and ATS without him.

Smart Pick

Good fortune shined down upon Philly last week, but the Eagles probably won't get that lucky this week. Also, the Eagles have been out-gained by over 170 yards in each of their last three games. The smart money here bets Buffalo.

Betting Trends

• The Bills are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Eagles.
• The Eagles are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home.
• The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.