NASCAR Fantasy 2015: AAA Texas 500 Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Fort Worth, Texas, this week for the AAA Texas 500. The race can be seen this Sunday at 2:10 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
The best way to assemble a dominating DraftKings lineup is to select the perfect combination of top drivers and sleeper picks. A sleeper pick is any driver priced under $7,500 who has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top 10. Fantasy teams who can find the perfect sleeper picks to combine with the top drivers will be taking home the cash in their contest.
The Eliminator Round of the Chase kicked off last week, and it did not lack excitement. Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano continued to have disagreements on the track, and Jeff Gordon is trying to put an exclamation point on his career by winning the race at Martinsville and advancing to the Championship Round of the Chase.
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There was a lot of talk last week about a non-Chase driver stealing a win at Martinsville. It did not happen last week and I doubt it will happen this week at Texas. The cream usually rises to the top at the end of the season, so expect the eight Chase drivers (Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards and Martin Truex Jr.) to fill the top 10 in the AAA Texas 500.
The Sprint Cup Series last competed at Texas last April. The race was dominated by Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. The two drivers combined to lead 224 of the 334 laps. Johnson was able to beat Harvick on the restart and win his second race of the season.
Here are the top-10 drivers with the highest point totals from the last race at Texas from ifantasyrace.com.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson | 104.5 |
| 2 | Kevin Harvick | 93 |
| 3 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 76 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 57.25 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 53.75 |
| 6 | Kasey Kahne | 52.5 |
| 7 | David Ragan | 48 |
| 8 | Jamie McMurray | 45.25 |
| 9 | Jeff Gordon | 42.75 |
| 10 | Carl Edwards | 42.5 |
The best strategy for this week will be to select two drivers who can lead laps and fill the remaining roster spots with drivers who can improve their position in the race. The race Sunday is 500 miles instead of the traditional 400 miles run on most intermediate tracks. These extra laps will give fantasy players an opportunity to score more bonus points for leading laps. It will be difficult to cash in without the driver who leads the most laps in your DraftKings lineup.
Top Drivers
Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($11,100)
Harvick has been one of the most consistent drivers on the intermediate track this season. He has finished 14 of the 21 races in the top five. Harvick has led 1,012 laps on tracks similar to Texas and he is the best bet to lead many laps on Sunday.
It was an up-and-down race for Harvick in April at Texas. He qualified second and quickly took the lead. Harvick had a problem with a loose wheel and fell back in the pack. He quickly made his way to the front and finished second. Harvick has finished second in seven of the 21 intermediate track races and is my pick to finish second again Sunday.
Harvick is once again the highest-priced driver in DraftKings contest. I think Logano is the driver who is running the best right now, but Harvick’s ability to lead the most laps makes his price justified. Harvick is worth spending the money on this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 5 | 13 | 19.0 | 12.6 |
Harvick is currently fourth in the Chase standings. If he is able to score another top-five finish at Texas, he will have a good shot at advancing to the Championship Round of the Chase. Harvick is almost a lock to win next week at Phoenix. He has won five of the last six races at the track.
Joey Logano, Team Penske Racing, Ford ($10,800)
Logano has been the hottest driver in the Chase. He has three wins and finished six of the seven races in the top 10. His only finish outside the top 10 came last week at Martinsville where he won the pole, led the most laps and was on his way to Victory Lane when Matt Kenseth spun him into the wall. A win last week would have made his 2015 Chase run one of the most dominant of all time.
With a 37th-place finish last week, Logano will most likely need to win at Texas or next week at Phoenix in order to advance in the Chase. He won the race last season at Texas, and I think he can do it again this week.
Logano qualified sixth and led 19 laps on his way to a top-five finish in the April race at Texas. The No. 22 team is running much better now than they were in the spring. Logano is my pick to win the race on Sunday.
If fantasy players want to use Logano for their DraftKings contest, they will have to spend some money to choose him. Logano is the second-highest-priced driver, but he has a good chance to score the most points. It will be hard to fade the No. 22 car this week because no driver has been able to compete with him for the last month.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 15.3 | 16.9 |
The No. 22 car has been surrounded by controversy in the 2015 Chase. The team seems to be able to put what happened the week before behind it and focus on its goal of winning the championship. I doubt Logano will be out to pay back any drivers this week. He is a man on a mission and a win at Texas will put him one step closer to reaching his goals in 2015.
Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy ($10,500)
Johnson should be the favorite heading into the race at Texas. He has a series-best driver rating and a series-best average-finish position at the track. Johnson has won four of the last six races at Texas and will be a threat to win again Sunday.
Johnson qualified fifth and led 128 laps on his way to Victory Lane in the April race at Texas. His car was not the fastest, but the team continued to work on it, and as the sun went down his car got faster. The No. 48 team is one of the best at improving its car in the race. Johnson scored the most points in DraftKings contest in the race and I would not be surprised to see him put up similar numbers this week.
Can a driver priced over $10,000 be considered a value pick? Johnson has dominated the recent races at Texas and should be the highest-priced driver in DraftKings contest. Johnson probably will not lead as many laps as Harvick or Logano, but he should be one of the drivers racing for the checkered flag at the end of the race at Texas.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 5 | 12 | 18 | 8.4 | 8.7 |
It is hard to gauge how Johnson will run Sunday. The stats suggest he is the driver to beat, but his performances on the track have not been impressive. Johnson only has two top-10 finishes in the seven Chase races. If he is going to win a race before the end of the season, it should happen this week at Texas.
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota ($10,400)
Could this be the year Busch makes his way to the Championship Round of the Chase? Crowning a driver who missed 11 races the champion would be very controversial, but it would be a perfect fit for a season that has been scarred by controversy.
Busch did not compete in the April race at Texas, but that does not mean he will be behind the other teams this week. Busch knows his way around this track. He has the second-best driver rating and the second-best average-finish position in the last five races at the track. Busch has won here before and could do it again on Sunday.
Busch has been overpriced in recent weeks, but I think DraftKings got his price right for the race at Texas. Busch is the fourth-highest-priced driver for your contest and should finish just inside the top five. Busch would be a great second pick for your contest this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 14.4 | 12.8 |
Busch was the hottest driver in the sport when he won four out of five races in the summer. He has cooled off but has been able to finish five of the seven Chase races in the top 11. Busch is a good pick to run up front at Texas.
Sleepers
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing, Chevy ($7,200)
Newman is one of the most consistent drivers in the Sprint Cup Series. He has finished 22 of the 33 races this season in the top 15. Last year, he was able to use his top-15 finishes to get him to the Championship Round at Homestead-Miami. This year, the competition was more difficult and he missed out making it to the Eliminator Round. Newman is still a driver capable of a top-five finish Sunday.
Newman had to start the April race at Texas in the rear of the field because his team decided to change the engine after practice. He quickly made his way through the field and finished 12th. Newman has been to Victory Lane at Texas before, so he knows his way around the track.
I still do not understand why DraftKings continues to price Newman under $7,500. I will continue to use Newman for my DraftKings contest as long as he is at a discounted price. He is a great value pick because he usually finishes higher than where he starts the race and earns bonus points for place differential. Newman is one of the safest picks for your contest this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 15.8 | 18.6 |
The only problem with selecting Newman is that he is not much fun to watch in the race. He usually runs between the 15th and 20th positions in the race and causes fantasy players to question why they selected him. When the race is over Newman has a habit of finding his way inside the top 10 and making the fantasy players who selected him very happy.
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevy ($7,400)
McMurray is one of the most underrated drivers in the sport and should have some momentum after finishing second last week at Martinsville. McMurray has nine finishes in the top 10 this season and six of them have come on intermediate tracks. This is the type of track to take a chance with the No. 1 team.
McMurray had a solid race in April at Texas. He qualified 10th and led nine laps on his way to a sixth-place finish. McMurray has finished the last two races at the track in the top six, and I think he could add another top-10 finish to his Texas resume this week.
McMurray is the 15th-highest-priced driver for your DraftKings contest. His price seems about right for me. McMurray should qualify in the top 15 and finish in the top 15 this week. He will not win you your contest this week, but McMurray is a safe driver who will score you enough points to keep you competitive in your contest.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 23.0 | 17.2 |
McMurray has finished most of the Chase races just inside the top 15. He does have top-five finishes at Martinsville and Dover, but I expect him to run in the top 15 on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney, Wood Brothers Racing, Ford ($7,000)
Blaney has been one of the most reliable cheap drivers for your DraftKings contest. He has run well on the last two races on the intermediate tracks. Blaney qualified 16th and finished 14th at Charlotte and qualified eighth and finished seventh at Kansas. He has a good chance to finish in the top 10 Sunday.
The stats for Blaney from the last race at Texas are misleading. He qualified 13th and made his way inside the top 10 when his engine expired. He could have had a top-15 finish if his car did not have problems. I think the No. 22 team has its engine problems settled and Blaney is a safe pick for the race at Texas.
I was hoping Blaney would be priced under $7,000, but it did not happen. DraftKings must realize that Blaney is a good driver capable of a top-15 finish. I still think he is worth the money, and I plan on using him in many of my contests this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.0 | 42.0 |
Blaney has proven that he is ready to take the next step and become a full-time driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. I hope it happens sooner rather than later, because he is a fun driver to watch. Do not be surprised if he finishes in the top 10 this week.
Brian Scott, Circle Sport Racing, Chevy ($5,500)
Scott is not a name that will be included in many DraftKings lineups this week. He only competes in a handful of Sprint Cup races, but when he is in the No. 33 car he usually performs well.
Scott has competed in four races on the intermediate tracks this season. He finished 13th at Las Vegas, 27th at Fontana, 22nd at Chicago and 12th at Kansas. His average finishing position on these tracks is 18.5. That is not bad for a driver who is at such a low price.
Scott is the best value pick in DraftKings contest this week. He is the lowest-priced driver in DraftKings contest and he has a great chance for a top-20 finish. His cheap price will allow fantasy players to spend up for some of the drivers with a chance to win the race. Scott should be used for every contest this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 4 | 11.3 | 15.9 |
Scott is another driver who has had a lot of success in the Xfinity Series. He has performed well when given the opportunity in the Sprint Cup Series. It would be nice to see what he could do in a full-time ride in the top series of NASCAR. I expect a top-20 finish from Scott at Texas.
DraftKings Picks for Texas
Driver 1: Kevin Harvick ($11,100)
Driver 2: Jimmie Johnson ($10,500)
Driver 3: Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,600)
Driver 4: Ryan Newman ($7,200)
Driver 5: Ryan Blaney ($7,000)
Driver 6: Brian Scott ($5,500)
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info and Yahoo Racing Stats.
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