New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (5-0) hope to avoid a letdown and remain undefeated when they host the New York Jets (4-1) in a key AFC East matchup on Sunday. The Patriots are coming off a motivationally charged 34-27 road victory against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday night, while the Jets have won two straight by double digits and covered the spread in their last four divisional road games.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.2-20.6 Patriots

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York is a much different team under new head coach Todd Bowles, who is a no-nonsense leader and will not try to rile up his opponent like his predecessor, Rex Ryan, did. The Jets have embraced the culture change, which is a major reason why they are just one game back of New England in the race for the AFC East title.

Another big difference between last year and this year is the team’s offense.

While New York quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will not be going to the Pro Bowl this season, he has been steady for the most part and not made many mistakes. Jets running back Chris Ivory has balanced out the offense well, and their lone loss took place in the only game he missed due to injury. That was also the only game Fitzpatrick threw more than one interception in this season, although he has yet to play a game without at least one.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are still arguably the NFL’s best team, and head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady know how important divisional games are. There’s a reason the duo has led New England to 11 AFC East titles in 12 years, including six in a row.

The team’s offense is scoring at a better pace than the 2007 squad that went 16-0 during the regular season and set a franchise record for total points. The Pats will look to get off to a big lead early—something they were unable to do last week against the Colts—and Fitzpatrick is not the type of signal-caller who can match scores with Brady.

Smart pick

The X-factor in this game is New York cornerback Darrelle Revis, who was on last year’s Super Bowl championship team in New England. Revis knows the Patriots offense well, and he used to give New England fits when previously playing with Ryan's Jets team. Watch for the Jets to keep this game close and at least cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Jets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Patriots in October.

The total has gone over in 12 of the Patriots' last 17 games at home.

The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.