NASCAR Fantasy 2015: AAA 400 Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Dover, Delaware, this week for the AAA 400.
The best way to assemble a dominating DraftKings lineup this week is to select the perfect combination of top drivers and sleeper picks. A sleeper pick is any driver priced under $8,000 who has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top 10. The favorites are the drivers who are in the Chase. Fantasy teams who can find the perfect sleeper pick will take home the cash in their contest.
The Sprint Cup Series enters the last race of the Challenger Round of the Chase, and the 16 drivers competing for the championship will have different agendas this week. Some drivers are in a must-win situation, others only need a top-10 finish to advance, and Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth already have a win and will be willing to gamble to add another win to their Chase resume. It is important that fantasy players know what the situation is for each driver they select.
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Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer will need a win at Dover to advance to the Contender Round of the Chase. They will be likely to throw caution to the wind in order to get to Victory Lane on Sunday.
The top-five drivers without a win in the Chase standings (Carl Edwards, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch) are in a good position to advance to the next round or the playoffs. These drivers will be less likely to take any chances and will play it safe in order to ensure a top-10 finish. They will be the safest picks for your contest this week.
The drivers in 10th through 14th in the Chase standings (Jeff Gordon, Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch and Paul Menard) will drive with a lot of pressure Sunday. They are only separated by 12 points, and every spot on the track will be important. The drivers in these positions will be focused on staying ahead of the other drivers in this group. Only two of the five drivers will be likely to advance in the Chase.
Here are the top-10 drivers with the highest point totals from the last race at Dover from ifantasyrace.com.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 100.25 |
| 2 | Martin Truex Jr. | 99.25 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 93.75 |
| 4 | Kasey Kahne | 66.5 |
| 5 | Aric Almirola | 58 |
| 6 | Clint Bowyer | 53.75 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | 50 |
| 7 | Paul Menard | 50 |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 49.5 |
| 10 | Jeff Gordon | 49 |
The best strategy for your DraftKings contest this week is to select drivers who start upfront with a good chance to lead many laps in the race. There are 400 laps and 100 bonus points available in DraftKings contest Sunday. Fantasy teams who can select the drivers who lead laps will take home the money this week.
Top Drivers
Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy ($11,200)
Johnson is the best pick for your DraftKings contest this week, and it is not even close. He has won 10 races at the Monster Mile, including three of the last four. Johnson has only finished outside the top four in one of the last eight races at Dover.
Usually, Johnson leads the most laps and wins the races at Dover. In May, he qualified 14th and led 23 laps on his way to Victory Lane. It was surprising to see him lead so few laps, but he still got the job done and scored the third-most points in DraftKings contest. Johnson will have a lot more to race for Sunday than he did in the last race at the track.
DraftKings must agree that Johnson is the best choice this week because they made him the highest-priced driver for your contest. Johnson has been priced $9,500 or lower the last month, so this is a significant jump in price for the No. 48 team. I think he is worth every penny and could be your ticket to the pay window at Dover.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 10 | 15 | 20 | 10.1 | 7.8 |
Only two drivers have more wins at a track than Johnson's 10 wins at Dover (Richard Petty's 13 wins at Richmond International Speedway and Darrell Waltrip’s 12 wins at Bristol). Johnson should lock up his spot in the Contender Round of the Chase with a trip to Victory Lane this week.
Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($11,000)
No driver will have more pressure to win the race Sunday than Harvick. He was a favorite to make his way back to the Championship Round of the Chase, but after a 42nd-place finish at Chicago and a 21st-place finish at New Hampshire, Harvick is in a must-win situation. The last time the No. 4 team was in a hole like this, they won the races at Phoenix and Homestead to capture the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
Harvick will have a good chance to win this week. He had one of the cars to beat in the May race at Dover. Harvick qualified sixth and led 91 laps on his way to a second-place finish. If Stewart-Haas Racing has a car in the garage it believes is blazing fast, it will have Harvick driving that Sunday.
For the last two months, Harvick has been the highest-priced driver for DraftKings contest. This week, he is priced right behind Johnson. Harvick scores so many bonus points for leading laps that his price is usually well worth the money. Fantasy teams will take a big chance if they decide to fade Harvick at Dover.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 4 | 13 | 17.9 | 14.2 |
If Harvick is to win the race this week, it will be his first trip to Victory Lane at Dover. The good news is that Harvick had his best race of his career at the track in May. The No. 4 team will do whatever it takes to get that car to the front this week.
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota ($10,200)
Joe Gibbs Racing won the first two races in the Chase (Hamlin at Chicago and Kenseth at New Hampshire), and I would not be surprised to see another driver from the organization win this week. Busch has the third-best driver rating and led the third-most laps in the last five races at Dover. He has two wins at the Monster Mile, so he knows his way around the track.
Busch had one of the best cars in the last race at Dover. He qualified 10th and was running in third-place when he was involved in an accident. He is currently on the bubble of making the Chase, so he will need a top-five finish to advance. Busch should get the job done this week.
It is no surprise that Busch is the third-highest-priced driver in DraftKings contest this week. His history of running upfront and leading many laps makes him a great pick for your contest. Busch will be the best choice behind Johnson and Harvick at the Monster Mile.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 2 | 9 | 13 | 10.9 | 15.1 |
Busch has never won a race in the Chase, and that should change this season. What makes this season different is that Busch has never run as well as he has since he came back from his injury in May. I would not be surprised to see Busch as the third Joe Gibbs Racing driver to win a race in the playoffs.
Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Racing, Chevy ($9,300)
Truex Jr. may not be the popular pick this week, but he should be selected for every contest. He had the car to beat in the May race at Dover. Truex qualified second and led 131 laps on his way to a sixth-place finish. He scored the second-most points in DraftKings contest because of the number of laps he was able to lead. Truex may not win this week, but he should run upfront.
Truex is a safe pick. He has finished three consecutive races at Dover in the top 10. Truex is ninth in the Sprint Cup Chase standings, so he will need another top-10 finish to ensure he advance to the Contender Round of the Chase.
Truex is one of the best values for your DraftKings. It is amazing how a driver who scored almost 100 points in the last race at Dover is the ninth highest-priced driver Sunday. Truex should be priced in the $10,000 range. Fantasy teams should take advantage of the discount and add him to their lineup.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 1 | 9 | 13.6 | 15.3 |
Truex considers Dover his home track, and he won his first career race at the Monster Mile. It is no secret that he loves this track, and Truex should be a great pick for your DraftKings contest.
Sleepers
Tony Stewart, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($6,700)
It has been a busy week for Stewart. He announced Wednesday that the 2016 season will be his last season in NASCAR. Maybe letting the public know his future will relieve some of the pressure he has had this year and allow him to finally finish upfront. If Stewart is ever going to have a great race this season, it will happen at Dover.
Stewart has three wins at Dover and led 1,075 laps at the track. He qualified 26th and finished 16th in the May race. He is running faster now than he did in the spring, so I expect a top-15 finish from Stewart on Sunday.
There are 20 drivers in DraftKings contest who have a higher price than Stewart this week, meaning DraftKings does not think Stewart will finish inside the top 20. I disagree. Stewart will still want to prove he can drive a race car, so expect a top-15 finish from Smoke this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 3 | 11 | 17 | 20.5 | 13.1 |
Most fantasy players have written off Stewart this season. He has failed to finish in the top 15 on numerous occasions, but I think this week will be different. With all of the media attention surrounding him, Stewart should be motivated to prove he can still compete in this series.
Clint Bowyer, Michael Waltrip Racing, Toyota ($6,900)
Bowyer is another driver who has dug himself a hole in the first two races of the Chase. Bowyer finished 19th at Chicago and 26th at New Hampshire, but the biggest blow to his Chase chances was a penalty for suspension and track bar issues at Chicago. The No. 15 team was docked 25 driver points and sits last in the Chase standings.
Bowyer is in a must-win situation Sunday. I doubt he will have the speed to win the race, but he should be good enough to finish upfront. In May, Bowyer qualified 20th and finished ninth. He scored the sixth-most points in DraftKings contest. Bowyer could have a similar race this week.
He's a great value for under $7,000. He has never won at Dover, but he has finished 12 of his 19 races in the top 10. That kind of consistency makes Bowyer one of the safest and cheapest drivers for your DraftKings contest Sunday.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 2 | 12 | 17.0 | 11.7 |
The one concern about the No. 15 team is how well they can handle adversity. Michael Waltrip Racing is shutting down at the end of the season, and most of the workers are scrambling for new jobs. Will they be focused enough to get Bowyer to the front? Since this could be the last race where the team will have something to race for, I think they will have one of their best runs of the season at Dover.
Aric Almirola, Richard Petty Motorsports, Ford ($6,100)
Almirola was starting to turn around his season until he got into the wall last week at New Hampshire. Prior to that race, Almirola finished three consecutive races in the top 11. He will look to start a new streak of top-15 finishes at a track where he has had a lot of success in his career.
Almirola qualified 23rd and finished fifth in the May race at Dover. He scored the fifth-most points in DraftKings contest. It will be hard for him to repeat those results, but a top-15 finish seems very realistic.
Almirola is a bargain $6,100. It is unusual to see a driver who finished in the top five at track four months ago be priced under $6,500. Fantasy players need to take advantage of his value and use him in all contests this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 20.0 | 15.7 |
The No. 43 team does not have as much to race for as the other drivers on this list, but they would still like to end the season on a high note. Richard Petty Motorsports has not been to Victory Lane in over a year, so a win Sunday would make the 2015 season a success.
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevy ($6,800)
McMurray will be one of the drivers to watch Sunday. He is on the bubble of advancing to the Contender Round of the Chase, so he will have to stay ahead of the other drivers in a similar situation.
He had one of his best races at Dover in May. He qualified 11th and finished seventh. McMurray spent most of the day just inside the top 15 but was able to make his way inside the top 10 at the end of the race. If his Happy Hour speeds are fast, he should be considered for your contest.
McMurray is one of the cheapest drivers who is competing in the Chase. It is important to fill your lineup with Chase drivers, and McMurray makes for a great value pick this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 1 | 6 | 15.5 | 17.8 |
McMurray usually performs at his best in the big races. (He has won both the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400.) This is his first chance at competing in the Chase, and he will be eliminated if he does not finish up front. I think he will get the job done this week.
DraftKings Picks for Dover
Driver 1: Jimmie Johnson ($11,200)
Driver 2: Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
Driver 3: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300)
Driver 4: Jamie McMurray ($6,800)
Driver 5: Aric Almirola ($6,100)
Driver 6: Cole Whitt ($5,600)
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info
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