NASCAR Fantasy 2015: Federated Auto Parts 400 Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Richmond, Virginia, this week for the Federated Auto Parts 400.
The best way to assemble a dominating DraftKings lineup this week is to select the perfect combination of top drivers and sleeper picks. A sleeper pick is any driver priced under $8,500 who has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top 10.
The favorites do not always finish up front. Fantasy teams that can find the perfect sleeper pick will be taking home the cash in their contest.
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The race Saturday night is the last race before the Chase begins. Teams that are locked into a playoff spot will only be concerned with winning the race and taking home the three bonus points for next week. The drivers on the bubble (Jeff Gordon, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer) will be looking for a top-10 finish this week, because points will be important. All of the other drivers will have to take a risk because it is win or go home for these teams.
Here are the top 10 drivers with the highest point totals from the last race at Richmond from ifantasyrace.com.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kurt Busch | 151.75 |
| 2 | Jimmie Johnson | 84.5 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 82 |
| 3 | Kasey Kahne | 82 |
| 5 | Kevin Harvick | 71 |
| 6 | Jamie McMurray | 59 |
| 7 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 46.5 |
| 8 | Matt Kenseth | 45.5 |
| 8 | Ryan Newman | 45.5 |
| 10 | Clint Bowyer | 44.5 |
The best strategy for your DraftKings contest this week is to select three higher-priced drivers who start the race up front with a good chance to lead many laps and three drivers who can move through the field. There are 400 laps and 100 bonus points available in the DraftKings contest for leading laps. Fantasy teams will not finish in the money without capturing as many of the bonus points as possible.
Top Drivers
Joey Logano, Team Penske, Ford ($10,400)
Logano will be the best choice in the field Saturday night. He has two wins, six finishes in the top four and led 366 laps in the last eight races. No driver in the series is as hot as Logano right now.
Logano had one of the cars to beat in the April race at Richmond. He won the pole and led 94 laps on his way to a top-five finish. Logano has finished four of the last five races at the track in the top six. He has a good chance to run up front Saturday night.
Fantasy teams will have to be willing to spend some money in order to select Logano this week. He is the fourth-highest-priced driver, but he has been the best driver the last month. Logano is well worth $10,400 this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 12.2 | 14.6 |
Logano has three wins in 2015, and he needs another to earn the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase. Team Penske has been on fire this summer, so it would not surprise me to see Logano in Victory Lane this week.
Brad Keselowski, Team Penske, Ford ($11,200)
Keselowski has been overshadowed at Team Penske because his teammate (Logano) has been winning so many races this summer. Keselowski may not have won any races since his win at Fontana in March, but he has finished eight consecutive races inside the top 10. This makes him one of the safest picks in the field this week.
Richmond has been a good track for Keselowski; he has a series-best driver rating in the last five races at the track. Keselowski won the pole and led 383 of the 400 laps in the race last year. Do not be surprised to see him dominate the race Saturday night.
Keselowski is the second-highest priced driver in the DraftKings contest this week. He price reflects his dominating performance at the track last season and not his 17th-place finish in April.
If Keselowski qualifies up front, he should be able to lead most of laps once again this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 9.3 | 16.9 |
When Keselowski gets on a roll, he usually does not cool off very fast. He had the car to beat last week at Darlington, but a poor pit stop put him back in traffic. If the No. 2 team can get its act together on pit row, they could be the team to beat entering the Chase.
Kurt Busch, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevrolet ($9,800)
Busch has to be considered one of the favorites Saturday night. He dominated the race in April at Richmond, qualifying third and leading 291 of the 400 laps on his way to Victory Lane. Busch will have a good chance to be the best driver for your DraftKings contest this week.
Busch has the second-best driver rating and the fourth-best average finish position in the last five races at Richmond. In the five races, he has led 400 laps, and he finished four of the five races inside the top 10. Busch will be a safe pick to score many points for your DraftKings contest.
When the Sprint Cup Series visits a track for the second time during the season, the previous race winner is usually priced over $10,000. That is not the case this week. Busch is one of the favorites to win Saturday night, but his price is $9,800. He is the best value of the higher-priced drivers this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 2 | 6 | 11 | 18.5 | 16.5 |
I debated on which Busch brother to add to the top-picks list, and although Kyle Busch has the best driver rating at Richmond, I had to go with Kurt because of his recent success at the track. Both Busch brothers will be good picks Saturday night.
Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevrolet ($11,400)
Harvick is by far the safest pick in the field this week, and he is the best investment for your DraftKings contest.
His 2015 season is one for the record books. Harvick has finished 18 of the 25 races in the top five and has led 1,450 laps this season. He consistently runs up front and leads laps.
Harvick was good but not great in the April race at Richmond. He qualified fifth and finished second, but he only led two laps in the race. Fantasy teams need drivers who not only finish up front but also lead laps in short-track races. Harvick is a safe pick to finish in the top five, but he needs to lead laps to score the most points for your DraftKings contest.
Once again Harvick is the highest-priced driver in DraftKings contests. He has a habit of dominating races when he has a fast car, so make sure you use him in your contest if he finishes at the top of the speed chart in Happy Hour practice.
Fantasy teams will not be able to win money without the bonus points for leading laps. Harvick has a chance to score the most points Saturday night.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 3 | 9 | 18 | 15.3 | 10.7 |
One of the best ways to finish in the money is to select drivers with the least amount of risk of having a bad race. Harvick has finished six of the last seven races in the top five—it does not get much safer than that.
Sleepers
Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevrolet ($7,800)
Kahne is 18th in the point standings and will most likely need to win the race Saturday night to make the Chase. I doubt he will win the race, but Hendrick Motorsports should give the No. 5 team the best car it has to help him finish up front.
Kahne had one of the most impressive races in the April race at Richmond; he started 40th and drove through the field to a sixth-place finish. If he can qualify up front Friday night, the No. 5 team will have a good chance to finish in the top five.
Kahne is a bargain this week at $7,800. He has not finished up front much this season, but Richmond is a good track for him. He scored the fourth-most points in the DraftKings contest in the April race. Kahne will be the best choice for the price if he is able to have a similar race to the last one at Richmond.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 14.1 | 17.2 |
I like filling my contest with drivers who have a lot to race for, and it will be hard to find a driver with as much on the line this week as Kahne. He is a great pick for your tournament contest this week.
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevrolet ($8,200)
McMurray is often overlooked in fantasy NASCAR because he does not win many races or lead many laps. What he does do is consistently finish in the top 15. Sometimes it is not always about winning the race; filling your contest with drivers who all finish in the top 15 can be a good way to win money.
McMurray has run well at Richmond in his career. He has the seventh-best average finish position and the eighth-best driver rating in the last five races at the track. McMurray has back-to-back top-four finishes at Richmond, and I would not be surprised to see him finish in the top five Saturday night.
McMurray is higher priced then I would have liked to have seen him this week. I was hoping he would have been priced under $7,800, but he is still worth the money at $8,200.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 21.5 | 20.6 |
Mathematically McMurray has not secured his place in the Chase yet. He would almost need to finish last and have some other drivers have their best race of the year in order for him not to be in the playoffs.
McMurray needs to hold a steady wheel and finish in the top 15 this week. I think he will do it.
Clint Bowyer, Michael Waltrip Racing, Toyota ($7,500)
Drivers do not want to be in the 16th spot heading into the last race before the Chase, but that is where Bowyer is this week. He needs to have a good race and hope a winless driver does not make it to Victory Lane this week.
The good news for Bowyer is that he runs well at Richmond. He has two wins and finished 11 of his 19 races in the top 10. Bowyer started 17th and finished in the top 10 in the last race at the track. He will be a happy driver if he can have a repeat performance Saturday night.
Bowyer has consistently been one of the best values in DraftKings contests. His price is based more on how he qualifies than how he finishes the race. Bowyer usually starts the race outside the top 20 but finishes inside the top 15. He is one of the best drivers at scoring bonus points for position differential.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 2 | 4 | 11 | 12.3 | 11.3 |
Bowyer has been an easy driver to predict this summer. He has consistently finished in the top 10 at the tracks at which he has had a lot of success in his career, but he has struggled at the tracks where he has not had much success. Richmond is one of Bowyer’s better tracks, so I expect a top-10 finish in the race.
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing, Chevrolet ($7,700)
If you decide to select Newman for your contest this week, be patient with him while you watch the race. Newman often qualifies and runs most of the race outside the top 15. As the race gets near, fantasy teams can look at the results and see Newman made his way to the top 10.
He will not lead any laps Saturday night, but Newman is a safe pick to finish up front.
Newman has had success at Richmond in his career. He has one win and finished 16 of his 27 races in the top 10. He qualified 23rd and finished 11th in the April race at the track. Newman will score you many bonus points for place differential in your contest.
Newman is on my sleeper list every week, and he will continue to show up here until DraftKings figures out he is worth a lot more than his $7,700 price. Newman is a driver who starts outside the top 15 and finishes inside the top 10 on a weekly basis.
Fantasy teams can expect 50 points from the No. 31 car this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 6 | 16 | 12.6 | 11.1 |
Last year Newman finished the season second in the standings by consistently finishing in the top 10. He is not locked into the Chase, but it looks like his consistency is going to pay off for him in 2015. Newman is one of the safest picks for your DraftKings contest.
DraftKings Picks for Richmond
Driver 1: Joey Logano ($10,400)
Driver 2: Kurt Busch ($9,800)
Driver 3: Jimmie Johnson (($8,900)
Driver 4: Clint Bowyer ($7,500)
Driver 5: Kasey Kahne ($7,800)
Driver 6: Justin Allgaier ($5,600)
Advanced stats courtesy of Racing-Reference.Info
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR
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