Matt Duffy, Not Kris Bryant or Joc Pederson, Is NL's Most Important Rookie

Quick show of hands: Who had Matt Duffy as a leading contender in this year's National League Rookie of the Year race?

Put your hand down.

Coming into the season, few outside the Bay Area so much as knew Duffy's name. And even the staunchest San Francisco Giants boosters couldn't have seen him as anything more than a fringe roster candidate.

Baseball, though, has a funny way of upending expectations. And as we enter the final two months of the 2015 campaign, there are few, if any, rookies contributing more than the Duffman. 

Here, let's stack Duffy's stats through Sunday's action next to those of Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson, two of the NL's most hyped rookies:

Player	AVG.	HR	OPS	WAR
Matt Duffy (SFG)	.304	9	.805	3.4
Kris Bryant (CHC)	.246	14	.791	2.6
Joc Pederson (LAD)	.223	21	.799	2.2

Unlike Bryant and Pederson, Duffy's place in the everyday lineup was anything but assured.

San Francisco opened the season with veteran Casey McGehee installed at third base, replacing All-Star/panda-hat-seller Pablo Sandoval, who bolted via free agency to the Boston Red Sox.

Duffy made the team out of spring as a utility infielder, and by May, he began getting regular starts at the hot corner. On May 24, San Francisco designated McGehee for assignment, effectively handing Duffy the gig. It was a leap of faith, considering Duffy played almost exclusively shortstop in the minors, logging just three games at third in three MiLB seasons.

Duffy seized the opportunity, and by the end of June, he was hitting .297 with an .825 OPS.

In fact, it's difficult to imagine where the Giants—who currently sit at 57-47 and in line for the NL's second wild card—would be without their current No. 3 hitter.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

That's right—not only is Duffy starting and contributing, but he's doing it out of one of the lineup's most essential slots.

"I didn't think putting him in the 3-hole would put any added pressure on him, and he's handled it very well," Giants skipper Bruce Bochy said, per ESPN.com's David Schoenfield. 

Duffy's pre-MLB stats offer few clues to explain his current output. He never hit a home run in college, as Schoenfield notes, and San Francisco drafted him in the 18th round in 2012.

In 942 minor league at-bats, Duffy hit .304 with a .387 on-base percentage, but he posted a more pedestrian .413 slugging percentage.

So what's changed? Writing for FoxSports.com, Owen Watson did a nice job breaking down some alterations Duffy has made to his swing and overall approach at the plate:

"

This season, his hands are lower and much quieter. He gets his front foot down a little quicker. His weight is more toward his back leg, with his lower body acting more explosively. Finally, he now finishes his swing high with his arms fully extended, only allowing one hand to remain on the bat. As a result, his whole upper body rotates more toward left field. Simply put, his swing is more explosive this year, and it's resulting in a much higher percentage of hard-hit balls — especially to left field.

"

For his part, Duffy says he's drawn inspiration from Giants catcher Buster Posey, who's not a bad guy to emulate.

"Before, I would search for power with my shoulders, and if you do that, you get kind of long with your swing and actually lose power," Duffy said, per Matt Kawahara of the Sacramento Bee. "The guy I kind of look at is Buster, because he's so good at just staying in his legs. It's unbelievable how he can generate not just power but quickness with his legs."

There's still time for Duffy to regress, of course. He has fewer than 420 big league plate appearances to his name. It'll be interesting to see how the 24-year-old holds up during the stretch run of his first full MLB marathon.

Morry Gash/Associated Press

At the moment, though, he's a vital part of an entirely homegrown infield that also includes first baseman Brandon Belt, second baseman Joe Panik and shortstop Brandon Crawford. The latter two, like Duffy, didn't garner much attention coming out of the minors. This year, Panik and Crawford were All-Stars.

If he keeps playing like he has, Duffy could soon add that feather to his cap. And he might need to clear some space on his shelf for a Rookie of the Year trophy, too.

He'll have to beat out the likes of Pederson, Bryant and New York Mets hurler Noah Syndergaard. But Duffy's stiffest ROY competition might come from his own teammate, Chris Heston. The right-hander is another surprise success story who's stabilized the Giants rotation and kept the defending champs in the hunt.

For now, the Duffman needs to keep being the Duffman—because boy is it working—and let the awards and accolades sort themselves out.

Hardly anyone saw Duffy's ascent coming, possibly including the man himself. But for the San Francisco faithful, it sure has been fun to watch.

All statistics current as of August 2 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.