2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Denver Broncos Stars
New head coach Gary Kubiak returns to the Mile High City with a new offensive scheme for the Denver Broncos stars. Peyton Manning must adjust as he hands the reins of Denver’s high-powered offense over to Kubiak and new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. The marriage of these gifted offensive minds will determine whether Emmanuel Sanders, C.J. Anderson and Demaryius Thomas will build on fantastic fantasy strides from 2014.
Denver boasted the most prolific fantasy offense in 2014, finishing top-five in both scoring and yardage for the third time in Manning’s three seasons with the franchise.
Odds are the passing production will yield to a focus on the running game, as Kubiak talks about installing a more play-action oriented approach, according to Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post:
"It's hard to find big chunks in this league. It's hard to get the ball down the field and make big plays, but you got to make them to be successful. So we feel like if we run the ball well and we play-action pass and they look the same, then we'll be able to get the ball down the field.
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Kubiak’s hiring and Manning's trade rumors indicate general manager John Elway is fully aware that the Broncos' offensive focus is shifting away from the five-time MVP and toward the collection of talent around him.
If all involved can jell in 2015, fantasy owners will harvest another successful season from the Broncos lineup.
Note: Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 9
Brock Osweiler, QB
We'll discuss Osweiler on the Manning slide, but get him on your dynasty roster as soon as possible.
James Casey, FB/TE
Casey joined the Broncos after the Philadelphia Eagles released him early in the offseason. The versatile H-back was originally drafted by the Houston Texans in 2009 and played four seasons in Kubiak’s offense.
Andre Caldwell, WR
Caldwell remains at the fourth wide receiver spot on the depth chart even though Wes Welker will not be re-signed.
Cody Latimer is expected to leapfrog him for WR3, rendering Caldwell to special teams and limited offensive targets in 2015.
Juwan Thompson, RB
Thompson’s name comes up in fullback discussions, but the undrafted free agent out of Duke filled in at halfback in light, but effective duty during his rookie year.
He currently ranks fourth on the Broncos’ running back depth chart, too deep to earn fantasy interest.
Virgil Green, TE
ESPN.com’s Jeff Legwold reported Denver’s intention is to expand Green’s usage from strictly a blocking tight end to a route-runner as well.
The 2011 seventh-rounder out of Nevada won’t surpass Owen Daniels on the depth chart, but will benefit from Julius Thomas’ departure.
Ronnie Hillman, RB
2 of 9
Hillman impressed in four midseason starts over the hobbled Montee Ball, but an injured foot in Week 10 against the Oakland Raiders drew C.J. Anderson into the starting spot he has yet to relinquish.
The 2012 third-rounder out of San Diego State will likely fill the change-of-pace role in his contract year.
Anderson owners might want to consider Hillman as a handcuff, especially if he outplays Ball in training camp.
2015 Projection: 80 carries for 320 yards and two touchdowns,; 20 receptions for 150 yards
Montee Ball, RB
3 of 9
Ball began 2014 as Denver’s RB1, but ceded the spot to Ronnie Hillman after a groin injury in Week 5. The 2013 second-rounder out of Wisconsin ended 2014 as the least effective runner in the Broncos’ crowded backfield.
| Player | Att. | Yds. | TDs | YPA |
| Juwan Thompson | 54 | 272 | 3 | 5.0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 179 | 849 | 8 | 4.7 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 106 | 434 | 3 | 4.1 |
| Montee Ball | 55 | 172 | 1 | 3.1 |
Ball blamed his injury struggles and poor play on returning too soon from a preseason appendectomy, according to Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post:
"Sitting on the sideline in street clothes, knowing that I have the ability to be out there and play, but I couldn't with my health—that was the hardest part. That was my starting spot. But tip of the cap to C.J. for filling that spot, and like the old slogan, being the next man up.
I feel great right now. Never felt better. I implemented a lot of pilates to strengthen my core because they dug inside of me to get my appendix. And then that kind of weakened my core, which, I think, resulted in my groin going out. I focused on pilates and yoga, and I think it helped.
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Ball is expected to back up Anderson, which makes him a useful handcuff for Anderson owners. If Anderson remains healthy, Ball likely won’t see much action in 2015
2015 Projection: 75 carries for 338 yards and three touchdowns
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Cody Latimer, WR
4 of 9
According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, wideout Cody Latimer joined Peyton Manning for his annual offseason training at Duke University,
Renck reported the 2014 second-rounder out of Indiana University expects to play more confidently as a result:
"It took me too long to actually catch on. I was in the playbook, but I could have done even more. When I actually got it, it was too late. It was just way different [than college]. I would know the play, then Peyton would change it. Then I'd get to thinking too much and play slower.
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With Wes Welker and Julius Thomas out of the picture, there are plenty of targets available for Latimer if he earns Manning’s trust. But even in the potent Broncos offense, the second-year player ranks a distant third on the depth chart behind Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Stash this project on your bench for now and wait to see how his production unfolds in Denver’s new offense.
2015 Projection: 40 catches for 450 yards and two touchdowns
Owen Daniels, TE
5 of 9
Denver signed Daniels as a free agent from the Baltimore Ravens not only for his work on the field, but his familiarity with Gary Kubiak’s system, according to Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:
"Guys ask questions. They've done an awesome job of learning it and they've picked it up really, really quickly and really, really well. Sometimes they'll be a little, 'hey, what do we got on this?' as we're breaking the huddle, but guys have been doing an awesome job, and I like that ... I know it's tough; it's got to be tough to learn something totally different than they've been doing the last few years. I'm happy to be in that teacher role.
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The nine-year veteran has played his entire career in Kubiak’s system, meaning there should be a smooth transition at tight end for Peyton Manning, who lost Julius Thomas to the Jacksonville Jaguars via free agency this offseason.
Contrary to popular belief, Daniels actually tied Thomas in run blocking and lagged behind him in pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus. But the Pro Bowler did finish 11th as a pass blocker, which will be important as Denver scrambles to replace injured All-Pro left tackle Ryan Clady.
Although Daniels is joining a stronger offense, his fantasy prospects still rate TE2 at best. He’s not worth the ninth-round reach owners are spending on him if Delanie Walker, Josh Hill and/or Dwayne Allen are still available.
2015 Projection: 45 receptions for 500 yards and five touchdowns
Peyton Manning, QB
6 of 9
Attention to the Manning-to-Houston trade rumors peaked when Benjamin Allbright of Mile High Sports Radio tweeted the report:
"#Broncos attempted to trade Peyton Manning this off-season to the Houston #Texans per more than one source in position to know. (1/2)
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) June 23, 2015
2/2 Certain elements of Broncos organization wanted Osweiler era to begin this season.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) June 23, 2015
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Sports Radio 610 (via CBS Houston) confirmed “very preliminary” talks took place before Manning restructured his deal in March. NFL Network’s Matt “Money” Smith first mentioned the trade talks on the Move the Sticks podcast with Daniel Jeremiah in late May.
“What was being insinuated is they’re excited about Brock Osweiler," Smith said. "He’s at that point now—that sort of Aaron Rodgers-, Brett Favre-point—where they feel like ‘OK, he’s ready.’”
Manning’s restructured contract included a no-trade clause, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Perhaps the future Hall of Famer became aware of the negotiations and reasserted control over his future.
Ultimately, trade discussions like these boil down to nothing more than front office calisthenics. It should not impact Manning’s fantasy value come draft day.
What potential owners should keep in mind is a greater emphasis on the run in a more balanced attack under Gary Kubiak. The new regime isn’t likely to tinker too much with Manning’s established style, but already losing Ryan Clady for the season means the Broncos will use the run and quick passes to alleviate pressure on the 39-year-old.
Manning’s floor is greater than his ceiling even though he’s ranked fourth among quarterbacks, coming off the board late in the third round. At that rate it might be better to go with a Russell Wilson or Drew Brees instead, allowing someone else to assume the risk of owning Manning in what is quite possibly his final NFL season.
2015 Projection: 4,200 yards passing, 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions
Emmanuel Sanders, WR
7 of 9
Sanders expects his numbers in 2015 to fall off the career-high 101 receptions, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns he posted last season. Allie Raymond of DenverBroncos.com reported the five-year veteran expects the new regime to slow down the pace of the offense:
"It’s definitely different. You talk about going from a no-huddle offense to an offense that’s huddling up, to an offense that is predicated off running a football and then throwing it. It’s different.
Of course obviously it’s not going to be one of those offenses, well I’m praying that it is, but obviously it’s not going to be one of those offenses where you catch it and you’re going to have two receivers catching over 100 passes. Hopefully, my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards to just help this team win ball games.
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Kubiak and Dennison plan to use Sanders out of the slot more often, similar to his role with the Pittsburgh Steelers, according to USA Today's Lindsay Jones:
"Emmanuel Sanders says coaches have told him he'll play more in the slot in the 3 WR set this year. #Broncos
— Lindsay Jones (@bylindsayhjones) April 13, 2015
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With that in mind, Sanders’ mid-third-round average draft position is a reach given the advertised cap on production expected in 2015. It could all be misinformation, but it would stand to reason given the ball-control style preferred by the new coaching staff.
2015 Projection: 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns
C.J. Anderson, RB
8 of 9
In 2014, Anderson went undrafted (No. 197) in most standard-sized leagues—12 franchises, 16 roster spots—according to My Fantasy League.com. It stands to reason since the 2013 undrafted rookie out of Cal began 2014 with very little preseason hype, stuffed down the depth chart behind Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman.
But when Ball and Hillman suffered injuries, Anderson snapped up the opportunity to start the last seven games of 2014 and finished with a Pro Bowl berth. In essentially half a season, the second-year pro racked up 849 yards on 179 attempts (4.7 YPC) and eight touchdowns.
The shifty 5’8”, 221-pounder also excelled as a receiver, hauling in 34 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Anderson is the total package at running back in the mold of Justin Forsett and Arian Foster, two backs Kubiak loved to feature in recent seasons.
Peyton Manning mentioned Anderson specifically when asked what the offense worked most on in OTAs, according to Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com:
"I'm learning, I'm learning about the requirements of me. I'm learning how Owen Daniels runs his routes, running back C.J. obviously getting more repetitions with him. C.J. of course, if you talk to him you think he's about a 12-year veteran starter and he's only started six games. I'm getting a ton of reps with him, and the sky is the limit for him, I will say that.
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There’s no stronger endorsement than one from an unquestioned future Hall of Famer, which is demonstrated by Anderson’s draft value creeping to the top of the second round. It’s a slight reach, but it’s also OK to pay up for a bona fide RB1 who's still available in the second round.
2015 Projection: 250 carries for 1,150 yards and 10 touchdowns; 45 receptions for 400 yards and two touchdowns
Demaryius Thomas, WR
9 of 9
Concerns about reduced emphasis in the passing game apply to every member of the Broncos offense except Demaryius Thomas. Even as Peyton Manning’s health deteriorated down the stretch last season, Thomas posted just one single-digit fantasy performance after the Week 4 bye, according to ESPN.com.
The biggest issue in Denver regarding Thomas is the gridlock on getting a long-term contract signed as the July 15 deadline to sign his franchise tender approaches.
NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport tweeted Manning is frustrated with the impasse, which costs the quarterback valuable training time with his top target in the Broncos' new offense:
"Peyton Manning is already upset Demaryius Thomas doesn’t have a new deal. If there isn’t one, don’t expect to see DT when camp begins
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 11, 2015"
John Elway’s public stand is resolute, placing “zero value” on Thomas’ absence from team activities during contract negotiations, according to Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post.
"As far as negotiations ... we'd like to get something done. But by him being away from here, there is zero value, not only to us, [but] to him. To me it makes no sense. That actually has no effect to anything we're talking about, trying to get a contract done with him, because that's ultimately what we'd like to do. But for him not to be here it has zero effect.
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Whether the two sides come together in time for training camp or not, fantasy owners should not be alarmed. Last year’s runner-up in fantasy scoring among wide receivers is sure to land in the top five again in 2015.
2015 Projection: 100 receptions, 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference. Fantasy stats provided by CBSSports.com. Fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap. H/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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