Justise Winslow vs. Stanley Johnson: Who Is the Better 2015 NBA Draft Prospect?

Versatile wings are invaluable in today's NBA, and the 2015 draft offers a handful of intriguing options.

Two competitors who stood out in the college basketball ranks are Duke's Justise Winslow and Arizona's Stanley Johnson. Both freshmen were integral to their teams' deep NCAA tourney runs, and they offer imposing two-way tools and talent.

Winslow was a catalyst for the Blue Devils' championship success, which gave his draft stock an extra bump compared to the rest of the field's small forwards. In most mock drafts and big boards, he's listed ahead of Johnson.

But when you look at their strengths, deficiencies and what they bring to the next level, Johnson is right there with him.

When it comes to overall draft value, who's the better prospect?

Physical Tools and Athleticism

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Winslow and Johnson are both exceedingly gifted physically, and their measurements at the NBA Draft Combine illustrate it. They have near-ideal physiques for modern-day wings.

	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Standing Reach	Body Fat
Winslow	6'6.5"	221.8	6'10.25"	8'8.5"	5.3%
Johnson	6'6.5"	241.8	6'11.5"	8'6"	7.5%

While Johnson has the rangier wingspan to blanket opponents laterally and make plays, Winslow's frame actually produces the loftier standing reach.

That standing reach and an extra leaping gear makes Winslow the guy you want in an above-the-rim situation. He's able to explode a notch higher than Johnson and finish drives or lobs.

However, Johnson's superior strength gives him the more NBA-ready physique. His upper and lower body is built like granite, and he'll be able to drive through the thicket of defenders and carve out position near the hoop when he needs to.

Johnson's strength will be valuable in many situations, especially if he has to guard power forwards intermittently. And make no mistake, he'll handle the pounding better early on. However, Winslow's agility and vertical length is more precious in a league that's increasingly trending toward finesse and athleticism.

Offense: Shooting/Finishing

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Neither player is a prolific shooter, although they both show promise from three-point land.

Outside shooting was one of the biggest question marks surrounding Johnson's game as he entered college, but he did a solid job executing for Arizona. Using great balance and a quick, smooth delivery, he hit 37 percent of his triples. The only significant flaw in his shot is the relatively low release point, which will prevent him from getting it off in tight spaces.

Winslow's three-point stroke was even more successful, hitting 42 percent of his threes and displaying brilliant potential with his southpaw form. 

When it comes to pull-ups and mid-range attempts, however, Johnson looks more comfortable. This type of in-between attempt from Johnson is something we almost never saw from Winslow:

Here's a breakdown of their outside shooting on three-pointers, two-pointers and free throws: 

	3FG Per 40	3FGA Per 40	3FG%	Two-Point Jumpers%	FT%
Winslow	1.6	3.9	.418	.269	.641
Johnson	1.6	4.3	.371	.444	.742

Johnson has the more complete floor game as a shooter right now, but Winslow has a more translatable three-point delivery. He also has a chance to be as good as Johnson inside the arc.

Near the rim, however, Winslow has a distinct advantage. As previously mentioned, he can access a higher plateau with his leaping ability.

The statistics back that up, as Winslow shot 67 percent at the rim last season, while Johnson shot just 53 percent, per Hoop-Math.com. So although they both own sharp off-ball instincts and high basketball IQs, Winslow's the player who's going to be able to convert more lobs and make successful cuts to the rim.

"(Johnson) struggled to finish at the rim, a surprising development for somebody as strong and athletic as he is," said Derek Bodner of USA Today. "Those struggles have cast doubt whether Johnson can become a focal point for a team offensively."

Offense: Creativity and Facilitating

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While Winslow and Johnson aren't particularly advanced ball-handlers or shot-creators, they both do a good job of making plays off the bounce. Part of that is due to their physical prowess, and part of it is due to their craftiness.

Johnson has a slightly better handle because he's a little more ambidextrous. His dribbling and body control enable him to make more of those aforementioned in-between floaters and pull-up jumpers than Winslow. However, he could do a better job of shaking opponents laterally.

Winslow is rawer and more left-hand dominant, yet he's elusive enough to weave his way to the rim via Eurosteps and change of pace. He doesn't set himself up for mid-range opportunities too often, but has enough coordination and athleticism to cultivate that part of his game.

Watch him freeze Notre Dame's Pat Connaughton with an in-and-out dribble to get to the cup:

Winslow and Johnson also use their slashing and instincts to serve as playmakers. The Duke forward averaged 2.9 assists per 40 minutes, while the Arizona frosh dished out 2.3. Those are great numbers for freshmen who weren't expected to do much distributing.

Neither player has a clear-cut edge in this department when it comes to draft value. Both have a chance to become superb slashers, innovators and facilitators.

Defense

The defensive battle also might be too close to call.

Winslow and Johnson are absolute studs in the making on this end of the court, even if they're not completely polished yet. All you have to do is look at their widespread comparisons.

Winslow is often compared to San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, largely because of his ranginess and overall athleticism. Like Leonard, he's got the tools and instincts to slow down the other team's top weapon, whether it's a playmaking guard or a slashing forward.

Chris Herring of The Wall Street Journal broke down the footwork and smarts that make him so effective:

"

Winslow is rarely beaten off the dribble, slides his feet exceptionally well and gets around screens at the top of the key. He’s disruptive and likes to deny the ball, often jumping into passing lanes. It isn’t rare to see him sacrifice his body by drawing charges, and between good positioning and a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Winslow usually contests shots without leaving his feet. Overall, he’s held opposing players to just 32% shooting when serving as the primary defender, according to SportVU. 

"

Johnson's likenesses are no joke, either. He resembles a hybrid of journeyman forward Ron Artest (in his prime) and Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler. Arizona called on him to physically stifle opponents and play a disruptive brand of hoops, and he obliged with 2.1 steals per 40 minutes and the second-best defensive rating in the Pac-12.

While he's not quite as athletic as Winslow, Johnson's 6'11.25" wingspan and strength make him just as versatile.

Andrew Ford of Upside & Motor explained that Johnson has plenty of foot speed and physical tools.

"When locked in, there aren’t many wing defenders better than Johnson at the college level," said Ford. "His lightning quick first step allows him to wall off driving lanes, and his muscular frame ensures that most guys won’t simply overpower him."

Ford also noticed Johnson's keen sense of team defense, as he consistently steered his man into trouble. Johnson's physicality and ability to diagnose plays will make him an elite stopper.

Upside and Overall Draft Value

These two standout wings had a very similar impact in college and take comparable strengths to the pro level. They're both long, athletic attackers who can play inside and out, and they have the IQ and competitiveness to thrive on both ends.

So how do we separate them when it comes to draft value? Who's the better overall prospect?

Compared to most one-and-done prospects, including Winslow, Johnson offers a superior immediate impact thanks to his linebacker-like physique and more productive mid-range repertoire.

However, draft prospects must be viewed through a long-term lens, and that's where Winslow ultimately edges out the Arizona star. Winslow has that extra burst to slash past foes and bounce over them, and that enhances his offensive upside. It will also help him make a few more hustle plays in unsettled situations.

In three or four years, Winslow's ceiling is around 17-22 points per game, along with all the passing, defense and end-to-end energy. Johnson's optimistic offensive outlook is more in the 17-18 point range.

The difference is marginal, but Winslow has a good chance to become a more explosive weapon.

All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.