Georgia Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Michigan State is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight round-of-64 NCAA tournament games. Georgia, meanwhile, is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.

The Bulldogs will be underdogs again when they meet the Spartans in the East Region's No. 7 vs. No. 10 game Friday afternoon in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Opening spread

The Spartans opened as 4.5-point favorites. (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick Georgia to cover the spread

The Bulldogs finished in a tie for third place in the SEC this season at 11-7, then won a game in the SEC tournament before falling to Arkansas. So Georgia is back at the Big Dance for the first time since 2011.

The Bulldogs actually started 0-2 in conference play, so they finished with 11 wins and 11 covers in their last 16 games. Georgia is also 2-6 SU but 5-2-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament, and that includes a pair of covers against top-ranked Kentucky.

In the first meeting with the Wildcats in Lexington, the Bulldogs pulled to within five points with two minutes to go, covering at +18, and in the second meeting, two weeks ago in Athens, the Bulldogs had the Wildcats down by nine with nine minutes to go, gave way but covered at +9.

Georgia doesn't scare anybody offensively, but it ranks in the top 30 in the nation in both field-goal defense at 39 percent and three-point defense at 31 percent.

Why pick Michigan State to cover the spread

The Spartans finished in a tie for third place in the Big Ten this season at 12-6, then advanced to the championship game of the conference tournament, where it took top-seeded Wisconsin to overtime before succumbing, 80-69.

Michigan State ended the regular season with six wins and six covers in its last eight games, then knocked off Ohio State and Maryland in the conference tournament before losing to the Badgers. So the at-large bid gives the Spartans their 18th straight trip to the NCAA tournament.

On the season, the Spartans are 7-8 both SU and ATS against teams that made the Big Dance, and that's a lot of games against quality opponents. And like a lot of Michigan State teams under head coach Tom Izzo, they got better as the season progressed.

On the year, the Spartans are shooting 47 percent from the floor and 39 percent from three-point range while holding foes to 40 percent field-goal shooting.

Smart betting pick

Michigan State was the better team down the stretch, and it has the pedigree. Meanwhile, this whole NCAA tournament thing is new to this edition of the Bulldogs. The smart choice here resides with the Spartans, minus the points.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Georgia Bulldogs: No. 92

Michigan State Spartans: No. 127

March Madness betting trends

- Georgia is 10-2-1 ATS in its past 13 games as an underdog.

- Michigan State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its past eight round-of-64 games.

- Georgia is 1-6 SU in the NCAA tournament since 1996.

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