Combine Could Vault Rising Prospect Breshad Perriman into 1st Round

University of Central Florida star wide receiver Breshad Perriman is the latest college prospect to get a lot of buzz in the run up to the 2015 NFL Draft. It’s always worth taking a closer look at buzz-worthy players before the numbers from the NFL combine start to distort draft grades.   

In this case, Perriman deserves the buzz because he is a legit prospect with good size and college production. Breshad is also the son of Brett Perriman, who played for 10 years in the NFL and had 108 catches for 1,488 yards in 1995 for the Detroit Lions.

Size, production and pedigree are all qualities NFL teams love. If Perriman performs well at the combine, his stock will only continue to soar. He could solidify himself as a first-round prospect with an athletic display that confirms what teams see on tape.

Although it can be dangerous to rely on college production to “scout” players, there is value in looking at Perriman’s production compared to NFL prospects from the past. Perriman isn’t a non-prospect with inflated college numbers where they are mostly irrelevant; he is a legit prospect with NFL size at 6’3” and about 215 pounds.

Last season, Perriman caught 50 passes for 1,044 yards and nine touchdowns. His average of 20.9 yards per catch was among the best in college football. Only three other players have been better in all four categories as a junior or underclassmen since 2000: Andre Johnson, Charles Rogers and Jalen Saunders.

Player	Year	HT	WT.	Rec.	Yds.	TD
Andre Johnson	2002	6'3"	219	52	1092	9
Charles Rogers	2001	6'3"	202	57	1200	12
Breshad Perriman	2013	6'3"	214	50	1044	9

Johnson has been one of the best wide receivers in the league for years, but Rogers was a colossal bust due in large part to off-the-field issues. Like Perriman, Johnson and Rogers are 6’3” tall. Saunders accomplished the feat as a sophomore at Fresno State in the WAC before transferring to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 where his numbers dipped as junior and senior. Saunders is also 5’9” and was a fourth-round pick last season, so he isn’t as comparable.

If we loosen up the parameters to 50 receptions for 1,000 yards, nine touchdowns and 20.0 yards per reception, then Lee Evans, Roddy White, Ashley Lelie, Mike Evans and Aldrick Robinson are on the list. That’s four more first-round picks and one sixth-round pick who played in the Conference USA. White became a No. 1 receiver, Mike Evans is on his way and Lee Evans was very good for many years.

Player	Year	Rec.	Yds.	Yds./Rec.	TD
Breshad Perriman***	2014	50	1044	20.9	9
Brandon Middleton*****	2003	55	1250	22.7	14
Snoop Minnis****	2000	63	1340	21.3	11
Jalen Saunders**	2011	50	1065	21.3	12
Charles Rogers***	2001	57	1200	21.1	12
Andre Johnson***	2002	52	1092	21.0	9
Tim Brown (Rutgers) ****	2009	55	1150	20.9	9
Lee Evans***	2001	75	1545	20.6	9
Roddy White****	2004	71	1452	20.5	14
Ashley Lelie***	2001	84	1713	20.4	19
Aldrick Robinson****	2010	65	1301	20.0	14
Mike Evans**	2013	62	1239	20.0	12

Loosen up those parameters to 19.0 yards per reception and eight touchdowns and Odell Beckham Jr., Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, Jonathan Baldwin, Antonio Bryant, and some other players are on the list. Britt, Baldwin and Bryant are all comparable in size to Perriman.

The point of this exercise is simple. For an NFL prospect, Perriman was excellent last year and his numbers compare favorably with more than a few No. 1 wide receivers—which is what teams are looking for if they use a first-round pick. Most of the comparable players only failed in the NFL due to off-the-field issues, and several of them at least became solid NFL players.

It’s important to note that Perriman had good production despite dropping quite a few passes. He also had an inconsistent sophomore quarterback throwing him the ball.

Drop rate can be deceptive because it relies on small samples and not all drops are equal. A pass low and behind a wide receiver is considerably harder to catch than one chest high in stride.

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Pretty impressive that Breshad Perriman produced like he did despite the accuracy issues with UCF's quarterbacks.

— RotoWire NFL Draft (@NFLDraft_RW) February 13, 2015"

Perriman doesn’t seem to have bad hands when you actually look at some of the drops and the tough catches he makes. He’ll drop an occasional pass, but it’s not as if he’s catching the ball with his chest as if he’s the second coming of Darrius Heyward-Bey. The plays he is able to make because he has good hands more than offsets a few drops.

On this drop on a slant route against NC State, Perriman has to reach low and behind him to try to catch the pass. It’s a drop because it did hit both of his hands, but the placement not only made it harder for Perriman, but it enabled the defender to punch at it.

That’s not to say Perriman didn’t have some easy drops, but every wide receiver does. Perriman had a bad drop against ECU, but then came back to catch the game-winning Hail Mary as time expired. If he can make plays like that, a few drops aren’t a big deal.

If he starts dropping fewer passes, he also has that much more potential to gain yards. His seven drops cost him 146 yards and a touchdown in 2014 assuming his rate stats remained unchanged. Perriman has also gotten better every year of his college career, so there’s reason to believe his drop stats will improve as his technique gets better.

The sample size will also get larger. It would only take a mild hot streak from Perriman to render the inconsistent-hands argument invalid. NFL teams are better off looking at how his skills will translate to the NFL game.

When you focus on Perriman’s skill set, his big body, quickness off the line and deceptive speed stand out. He used those skills to run a lot of go-and-slant routes for the Scarlet Knights.  

His size enables him to shield the ball from defenders on most slant routes, and his quickness out of his breaks enables him to create separation. Perriman makes sharp cuts and loses very little speed out of his breaks, which helps him offset a lack of blazing speed.

Early in the game against NC State, Perriman caught two slant passes. The first one was a great example of his big body shielding a defender, and the second was a good example of a nice hard cut to create separation.

Later in the game, Perriman displayed his ability to get off the line of scrimmage with a nifty move to defeat press coverage. His quarterback didn’t find him, but he was wide open for a touchdown.

Perriman’s speed is so deceptive his quarterback often couldn’t hit him in stride despite the fact that he was often wide open or had a step on a smaller defender. Any decent NFL quarterback should be much better about getting him the ball when he wins.

On this play, Perriman ran past the cornerback and you can see him separate before he had to adjust to a severely underthrown ball. Perriman was surprisingly adept at gaining separation on deep passes with a jab step and his acceleration.

In the second quarter of the game against ECU, Perriman also has to catch the ball at its highest point and adjust in the air to make the catch. Since he is a big receiver, this is a must-have ability at the NFL level. His body control in the air is a special talent.

Perriman didn’t get many of his yards on screens or quick passes, which only makes his statistical performance more impressive. He is a physical runner after the catch as well, and there’s no doubt he plays to his size.

Although he doesn’t run every route on the tree, those that he does run are crisp. He cuts on a dime and doesn’t lose a lot of speed on his breaks. He also seems to understand how to set up a defensive back to create separation. He can catch passes at their highest point, adjust to passes in the air and he is deceptively fast for being so big.

Nothing about Perriman’s game is sloppy. He’s not a finished product, but it’s clear he works at his craft. He doesn’t simply rely on his physical talent to make plays.

In short, there’s a lot to like about Perriman, and the major criticism of his game could be due in large part to poor quarterback play and a small sample size. He can probably learn how to use his big frame to his advantage more and to run a more diverse route tree, but he has all the tools to be a No. 1 receiver in time.

If he does well at the combine, interviews well and is clean off the field, then he’s a legit first-round prospect. This is one example of the buzz being legitimate and not created by the fans or media because he looks good running 40 yards in tights.   

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Sports-Reference.