How Badly Do Houston Rockets Need an Upgrade at Point Guard?
The Houston Rockets have progressively built an elite team, but they are still one piece away from being a true title contender. They need an upgrade—or at the least, another option—at point guard.
In 2011-12, the Rockets were just 34-32, and Luis Scola was their leading scorer. The next year, they added James Harden who has emerged as an MVP front-runner this season. Then they acquired Dwight Howard. This offseason they replaced Chandler Parsons with Trevor Ariza and revamped their philosophy to become an elite defensive team.
They are now tied with the Los Angeles Clippers for the fourth-best record in the NBA. They’re certainly good enough to beat just about anyone in a seven-game series and should make it to at least the second round, if not the Western Conference Finals, as constructed.
But in spite of all their improvements, they need improve at the "quarterback" position before they can legitimately compete for a banner.
Why Patrick Beverley Isn’t Sufficient
Patrick Beverley is the resident starter, but there are flaws in his game, which, when exposed, have left the Rockets vulnerable. Furthermore, the All-NBA defense that earned him the starting spot in the first place has regressed.
Per NBA.com, Beverley held opponents to 0.8 percent below their normal field-goal percentage in 2013-14. This year they are shooting 2.7 percent better when he guards them. According to ESPN.com, his defensive real plus-minus is only minus-.54. Both those numbers suggest that the problem isn’t just that he’s no longer elite, but he also has slipped to below average.
In fact, the Rockets’ defensive rating is only 96.7 while he’s on the bench, according to NBA.com, but it’s 102.6 when he’s on the court, which indicates he may even be having a detrimental impact.
It may be easy enough to shake that off as “numbers don’t mean everything” if he were producing on the offensive end, but he’s not doing much there either. He’s averaging 11.1 points and 3.2 assists per game. Based on numbers from HoopsStats.com, that leaves him 30th in scoring among point guards and 50th in assists.
While he is 10th in rebounds, and fourth in blocks, he’s only 27th in steals (1.2). His efficiency (27.6) also ranks 27th. His Player Impact Estimate (7.7) is 42nd of the 48 guards with 30 or more starts.
All that being the case, you make the argument Beverley is in the conversation with Tony Wroten for the worst starting point guard in the NBA, which makes him imminently replaceable.
Why James Harden Needs Help
At the same time, based on data from Basketball-Reference.com, James Harden is getting overtaxed. Of the 4,928 points the Rockets have put up this season, Harden has either scored or facilitated on 2,092 of them—42.5 percent of them.
Perhaps more importantly, 1,817 of those have been specifically generated by Harden, meaning they came off his passes, free throws or unassisted field goals. As I wrote last week, no player in the league is bearing a heavier offensive load than Harden. He’s generating a whopping 37.5 points per 36 minutes.
When he sits, the Rockets’ offensive rating drops from 107.2 to 91.6, which is Philadelphia 76ers territory of bad. That makes a great argument for Harden being MVP, but it’s also a horrible omen for Houston’s postseason chances.
This is evident when teams focus on Harden and trap him down the stretch, or if they have an elite defender on him. When they can’t rely on Harden, the Rockets struggle to score, particularly if their shooters go cold.
This was clear on Jan. 30, when they faced Avery Bradley and the Boston Celtics. Bradley did a splendid job of checking Harden, and the three-point shooters were a frigid 8-of-30. Were it not a career game from Donatas Motiejunas (26 points and 12 boards), Houston would have blown that game.
When so much is put on one player, the offense becomes predictable: Turnovers go up and efficiency comes down. Houston doesn’t need an elite point guard, but particularly in the playoffs, they’ll need one who can create shots for himself and/or others. Beverley is neither. He’s generating just 13.6 points per 36 minutes.
The other point guards the Rockets have in hand are Isaiah Canaan and Alexey Shved.
Canaan could develop into a starter, but that’s at least a season or two away.
Shved was part of the three-team trade that brought in Corey Brewer on Dec. 19. But based on the meager 59 minutes he’s played as a Rocket, it’s likely he’s not a permanent piece. And his 41.7 effective field-goal percentage in a Houston uniform doesn't suggest he should be.
Trade Options
The good news for the Rockets is they have time to make a trade, and they have the assets to get one done. This could include any combination of the following:
- Terrence Jones has a promising future but has become superfluous since the Rockets have seen Motiejunas blossom and Josh Smith sign. Jones began the season as a starter, but because of a bruised nerve in his leg, he missed 41 games and has only been back since Jan. 28. He’s a genuine talent, but his best value to Houston right now could be as a trade chip.
- Kostas Papanikolaou is a promising young rookie, but he's one whose role has diminished to 12.6 minutes per game since the Rockets added Brewer. He owns a $4.8 million contract, which could be combined to bring back a more expensive player.
- The Rockets have the rights to the New Orleans Pelicans’ first-round pick this year, obtained in the Omer Asik trade. While it has protections on it, per RealGM.com, if it’s anywhere between picks No. 4-19, it will come due this year. At present, it’s the No. 15 pick, which means the only way it wouldn’t come is if the Pelicans suddenly start playing out of their minds or win the lottery. Neither is likely.
- Shved’s $3.2 million expiring contract
- Jason Terry has been better than expected, but his $5.9 million expiring contract could be more helpful than his play.
All of these options would pique the interest of teams looking to build for the future.
However, there’s a sparse market. Premiere point guards are at an all-time high, but the teams that have them tend to be in the playoff hunt. Funny how that works out, isn’t it?
And the Rockets wouldn’t be just looking for any point guard either; it would be a specific type. They need someone with a unique combination of talents. Chiefly, he needs to be able to both play with and off the ball. He has to supplement Harden’s skills not replace them.
Ergo there are certain quality point guards available who wouldn’t be a good fit. For example, Deron Williams of the Brooklyn Nets needs to command the ball to affect the game. The Oklahoma City Thunder's Reggie Jackson is a just 28.3 percent from three, meaning he wouldn’t be able stretch the court for Harden’s drives.
In both cases, the acquisition would just be overlapping with Harden, taking away from what he does, only not doing it as well.
There are three players who make a short wish list, though. Bear in mind, this is purely speculation on my part. There is no “rumor” that these are actually in the works. They are players who could reasonably end up on the block for the right price and in the right situation.
Note that none of these scenarios include trading Beverley. That’s because I suspect that he’d be more productive coming off the bench, and that doing so would re-invigorate his All-Defensive play. Frankly, he plays better with a chip on shoulder.
Goran Dragic would be the most ideal candidate for Houston. He shoots 34.7 percent from deep, and his catch-and-shoot effective field-goal percentage is 54.4 percent so he can play off the ball. He is generating 21.0 points per 36 minutes.
Most importantly, he’s been playing in a similar situation with the Phoenix Suns, where he and Eric Bledsoe have been sharing the ball-handling responsibilities, so he wouldn’t need to adjust his game.
The hang-up there is the Suns, at 28-21, refuse to cooperate. Any deal for Dragic necessitates Oklahoma City passing them up for the eighth playoff spot before the trade deadline, and that’s looking less and less likely to happen. The Suns won’t be making any deal unless they feel the season is a wash, and right now, it isn’t.
And if it does, Dragic is going to command a price of at least Jones and the Pelicans’ pick, plus the salaries needed to get it done. At a minimum, that means Shved, Jones and Clint Capela, the Rockets’ promising rookie center.
The field slims out after that. But there are other guys who are available and possibly for a lot less.
The New York Knicks are in full-blown rebuilding mode, and according to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com, Jose Calderon is on the market. In fact, the Knicks might be so happy to be rid of his contract, they could give him up for nothing more than Terry’s expiring deal.
Calderon would fit well. He is 41.1 percent from deep for his career and his generating 15.8 points per 36 minutes in a floundering offense. The upside is that they would have a point guard who meets all their needs and for whom they would not have to surrender any of their assets for the future.
But the downside is that the Rockets would be on the hook for two more seasons of Calderon at $7 million. And his defense is well below average with a DRPM of minus-2.55.
Jameer Nelson, currently with the Denver Nuggets, may not only be better than Calderon, but he could be gotten a lot cheaper. He’s 37.2 percent from deep for his career and is generating a surprising 25.2 points per 36 minutes. Additionally, he spent the first eight years of his career with Dwight Howard, so they already know each other.
The Nuggets are in rebuilding mode, so Shved, and perhaps a second-round pick, might get that done.
These scenarios are not meant to be inclusive of everything that could happen. For instance, it’s possible that the Knicks just waive Calderon and use the stretch provision, which would allow them to extend the $15 million he’s due over five seasons instead of two.
That would make sense for them as they’ve already made moves (such as the trades of J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert on Jan. 3) designed to free up cap space for this summer. Such a move would whittle the Knicks down to $31 million in guaranteed salaries next year, per Spotrac. With the massive new TV deal pending, the extended $3 million cost would be negligible by comparison.
If that happened, the Rockets could just pick up Calderon for the player minimum.
It’s also possible that the Rockets don’t make a trade, but opt for a pickup at the 'Playoff Eligibility Waiver Wire Deadline” on Mar. 1. which is the last day a player can be picked up after clearing waivers and still be eligible for the postseason. It seems every year there are a handful of such players.
Whatever else happens, the Rockets do need a second shot creator in their backcourt for the postseason. Considering how active Daryl Morey is, expect them to find one.
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