Manuel Pellegrini's Denial of Man City's Impotence Without Yaya Toure Falls Flat

Manchester City manager Manuel Pellegrini needs to believe that the Sky Blues do not need Yaya Toure to win matches. Pellegrini needs his team to believe that, too.

Don't believe me? Look at what Pellegrini told the assembled press at his press conference in advance of City's crucial clash with Chelsea this coming weekend:

As Ernest Hemingway wrote at the end of The Sun Also Rises, "isn't it pretty to think so?"

Pellegrini's pointing to two isolated (though admittedly significant) Champions League results earned in Toure's absence is a high-grade exemplar of reliance on small sample size.

A cursory review of Manchester City's record without Toure this season paints a much bleaker picture than Pellegrini's unworried soundbite provides.

"Manchester City have failed to win a Premier League game without Yaya Toure since April last year following the weekend draw with Everton," wrote Nicholas Godden for the Daily Mail on Jan. 12.

Godden also noted how much Toure contributed to City's remarkably successful skein of results that, for a short time, drew them level with Chelsea at the top of the Premier League table. 

"During that impressive run, Toure was instrumental as he scored six goals in eight games to help fire City to within touching distance of Jose Mourinho's side," Godden observed.

Since the Everton draw, Toure's work with the Ivory Coast national side at the Africa Cup of Nations cost City Toure's services in an important league match with Arsenal and an FA Cup match with Championship side Middlesbrough. Both of those matches were played at the Etihad.

Both were 2-0 defeats for City.

Jon Super/Associated Press

The problem for Pellegrini and for City is that, as deep and expensively assembled as the Sky Blues are, no one player on the roster can replace Toure or even adequately stand in for him.

Pellegrini's comments are almost certainly in part motivated by a desire to prepare City supporters for a future that may not include the massive Ivorian, who has (shall we say) indicated a wish to explore other opportunities.

Which would be fine, under the right circumstances. 

"(T)here are more than a few Blues who, despite their respect for his achievements, would be happy to see him move on in the summer—as long as he is properly replaced of course," wrote Stuart Brennan for the Manchester Evening News.

But that's the summer. City are still walking nervously past the graveyard in the Premier League title race, whistling to reassure themselves that their defense is not already dead.

Perhaps of greater import is City's upcoming Champions League knockout tie with Barcelona. Having capitulated so feebly against Lionel Messi and company last season, City are surely determined to make a better showing of themselves this time around.

So Pellegrini may be right that his team is not one player in the abstract, big-picture sense. And Toure, who will turn 32 in May, will probably not be the dominant player he has been for all that much longer.

In this moment, though, having Toure on the pitch still gives City a ridiculously more significant chance to win matches than they have when he is absent or injured.

As American football coach Bill Parcells famously said, "you are what your record says you are."

Manchester City's record says they are not much of a team when Yaya Toure does not play, no matter what Pellegrini would have you believe.