Charlotte Hornets Falling Short of Amplified Expectations in Early Stages
There was something decidedly kitschy about last season's Charlotte Bobcats. They were a squad that was simultaneously on the rise and facing a clear expiration date.
Steve Clifford, their first-year head coach, constructed a base system that took full advantage of the offensive skills of Al Jefferson, the team's marquee free-agent signing, on one end while masking his shortcomings on the other. With Big Al serving as the team's focal point, the Bobcats' young perimeter players (i.e. Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson) fell into comfortable roles according to their respective skill sets. Journeymen like Josh McRoberts and Chris Douglas-Roberts seemed to finally find their own niches, to Charlotte's clear benefit.
Together, they became the Eastern Conference's feel-good story. They ground out 43 wins, keeping Michael Jordan grinning all the while. With each of those victories, the putridity of their recent past—Larry Brown's acrimonious departure and a historically awful 7-59 campaign chief among the lowlights—dissipated amidst the musk of hope.
It was the dawning of a new day in the Queen City. Even a first-round sweep at the hands of the mighty Miami Heat couldn't dampen this franchise's spirits, certainly not with the return of the team's old moniker and the arrival of a potential star on the horizon.
The Hornets were back, and they brought Lance Stephenson with them to boost their prospects. So onward and upward, right?
As the rebranded Hornets are finding out firsthand, growth in the NBA isn't always linear. For them, it's been more of a "two steps forward, one step back, another step back, maybe one more step back, then a forward shuffle...and another step back" sort of process.
The latest regression? A 107-80 annihilation at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks.
"We just didn't have the fight, and against team like that you have to be on it, and disciplined, together and willing to fight for every possession," Clifford said after the game, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "We weren't there tonight."
Not that the result was without explanation on Charlotte's part. The Hornets had just returned from a four-game West Coast road swing with but a single win to show for their travels. It's a known thing around the league that teams tend to struggle upon returning home from long trips. As former Detroit Pistons coach George Irvine once put it when speaking to reporters, "It's an old NBA cliche that the first game back from the Coast is really tough. But cliches get that way because there is some truth behind them."
In the Hornets' case, they were still adjusting to a number of injuries on the perimeter. Kidd-Gilchrist missed his third game in a row (and fifth of the season) with a stress reaction in his right foot. A concussion disqualified Gary Neal from participation. Rookie P.J. Hairston left the game against Dallas after spraining his right ankle.
Injuries, though, can't explain away all of Charlotte's woes in the early going. The Hornets are currently 4-7, just three buzzer-beaters shy (two against the Milwaukee Bucks, one against the Atlanta Hawks) of possibly sitting at 2-9. If not for them, the lowly Los Angeles Lakers would still be searching for their first win of 2014-15.
The offense remains among the five least efficient in the league while the defense, once a solidly top-five unit, has slipped toward the bottom third of the NBA.
To quote Mike LaFontaine, wha' happened? Why has this promising squad seen its stock slip since the start of the new season?
For one, the Hornets are no longer the Bobcats. That is, they're not going to take their opponents by surprise. As with the similarly surprising Phoenix Suns out West, the rest of the Association knows that this team isn't just another Sprinkles cupcake on the schedule and that it can't relax accordingly.
Charlotte's problems, though, run deeper than a closer alignment of perception and reality. As big a leap forward as the Hornets' pursuit of Gordon Hayward and eventual signing of Stephenson seemed to represent, the loss of McRoberts to the Heat might've been just as sizable a slip backwards.
McRoberts was the unsung hero of Charlotte's renaissance last season. The Duke product was the glue that held the then-Bobcats together, a jack-of-all-trades with the wide-ranging skill set to fill in the cracks and keep the team operational on both ends of the court. As SB Nation's Derek James put it:
"No, McRoberts is no offensive game changer, but he can be an important piece to what a team does. His value lies more in his decision-making ability in knowing when to defer and when to call his own number rather than points per game, but he still performed like a top big man last season.
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Charlotte scored better than five points more per 100 possessions when McRoberts played last season. His presence portended a higher share of assisted baskets, a decline in turnovers by percentage and a more thorough cleaning of the defensive glass.
It's no wonder, then, that His Airness, a Tar Heel by trade, had such glowing praise for this particular Blue Devil during the team's 2013 training camp.
"The success of this team is McRoberts—how well he can connect the dots," Jordan said, via The Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell.
The reverse now seems to be coming true. Marvin Williams, McRoberts' de facto replacement at power forward, has been a blight on Charlotte's fortunes thus far. The Hornets have been 7.5 points worse per 100 possessions with Williams on the court.
That's problematic since he's started all 11 games for the Hornets to date.
Granted, Williams isn't entirely to blame for what ails Charlotte. Sure, his defense has been suspect, and he can't single-handedly goose a team's offensive rhythm like McRoberts can, but he's shot the ball well: 37.1 percent from three, a career-high 46.8 percent from the field.
But Williams was never going to be McRoberts. He'd never been much of a passer, topping out with an assist rate of 9.7 percent in his second pro campaign, and his attempt to become one has yielded turnovers on an unsightly 16.2 percent of his plays this season.
In theory, Charlotte's guards and wings were supposed to take care of that problem. Walker's proved capable of creating for others even though he'd prefer to get himself a good look. Stephenson thrived as a ball-handler and passer with the Indiana Pacers, leading his previous team in assists (4.6 per game) and the league in triple-doubles (five).
That hasn't quite worked out in practice. Walker's output has dipped, albeit predictably so. His scoring (14.7 points), field-goal attempts (13.3), true shooting percentage (.483) and assist rate (24.2 percent) are all down in part because he's not using up as many of Charlotte's plays next to Stephenson.
Walker's slippage wouldn't be so problematic if Stephenson were handling his transition from second or third fiddle in Indy to top perimeter option in Charlotte with aplomb. But that hasn't been the case for Stephenson to say the least.
It's all well and good that he's dishing out more assists (5.3) than he ever did in Indy and grabbing more rebounds (9.2) than any other non-big in the NBA. Unfortunately for the Hornets, Stephenson also happens to be turning over the ball nearly every fifth time he runs a play and has seen his shooting dip down toward the level of his pre-starting days while essentially trading in three-point tries for long twos.
"My offensive game is not coming," Stephenson said prior to the Hornets' recent loss in Portland, via Bonnell. "I'm working on that, learning how to score in this offensive system."
To that end, it's still far too early for Chicken Little to start panicking on Charlotte's behalf. Stephenson's oddball tactics remain intact, and his actual offensive prowess should follow suit as he adjusts to playing next to a low-post powerhouse like Jefferson. Big Al's scoring and rebounding are down a bit, but that, too, would seem more a function of Charlotte's offense shifting to fit its new personnel more than anything.
And, really, there's no overlooking the extent to which injuries have set the Hornets back on the wing. Kidd-Gilchrist had morphed into a fantastic mid-range shooter, with plenty of help from assistant coach Mark Price, prior to his foot problems. With Hairston and Neal now on the shelf and Douglas-Roberts riding the pine for the Los Angeles Clippers, the Hornets have had little choice but to turn to Gerald Henderson, a serviceable veteran off the bench but hardly a starter on a team with aspirations beyond the seventh or eighth seed in the East.
That deficiency should correct itself in due course as MKG, Hairston and Neal heal up. With any luck, Stephenson will settle into a more agreeable niche and become a credit to the Hornets' all-around efforts.
There's no replacing McRoberts' combination of size, shooting, ball-handling and passing in one fell swoop, but that might not be necessary for Charlotte to succeed. Cody Zeller, the team's top pick in 2013, has already shown marked improvement from his rookie struggles. Noah Vonleh, the No. 9 pick this past June, could be a valuable frontcourt contributor down the road.
Moreover, three of this team's defeats have come by three points or fewer, including a two-point loss to NBA-best Memphis Grizzlies in which Stephenson managed just two points and another by a bucket in Portland, wherein the Hornets once held a 23-point edge.
Those were but two of the tougher dates with which the Hornets have had to deal during their early onslaught. According to ESPN, only the Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers have played a more demanding schedule to this point.
It may be some time before Charlotte's slate softens up. Impending contests against the Pacers and the Orlando Magic appear palatable on paper, at least in comparison to the six-game gambit against the Heat, Clippers, Blazers, Warriors, Hawks and Bulls to follow.
Charlotte can only hope to be healthier and more functional by then. If not, the overall weakness of the Eastern Conference could be its saving grace.
The Hornets aren't the Bobcats, that's for sure, and aren't even what last season's Bobcats were, but they're not far off. Charlotte started 5-6 through its first 11 games last season and didn't cross back over the .500 threshold until early April.
These Hornets have the pieces to take that step sooner and to a greater degree than did their forebears. They'll just have to avoid too many more backwards steps in the interim.
Advanced statistics courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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