Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds, Analysis

The Alabama Crimson Tide will get their chance to take down the top team in the country on Saturday when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in arguably the biggest SEC game of the year.

The Crimson Tide have won 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Bulldogs, including the last six, and they are a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their past seven home games vs. SEC opponents.

And the last two times Alabama was favored against the No. 1 ranked team in the country, they won easily both times, according to the Odds Shark college football database.

Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.3-25.4 Bulldogs

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State is still unbeaten for a reason, going 12-0 in their last 12 games dating back to 2013. This is obviously the toughest test of the season for the Bulldogs, but they have managed to come through in their biggest games all year.

They are also 10-4 ATS in their past 14 dating back to last season, although they have failed to cover three straight. To be fair, Mississippi State’s past three games have come against weak competition, with the team favored by double digits in all of them.

The Bulldogs started the season 5-1 against the number, capped by a 38-23 rout of Auburn as 2.5-point home underdogs. That victory was so impressive it made Mississippi State the No. 1 team in the country, and the school has stayed there ever since.

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Alabama has been looking forward to this game on its schedule for a while now and done a good job of not overlooking opponents along the way. The road has not been easy, but the Crimson Tide are right where they want and need to be, knowing that a victory here against the nation’s top-ranked team will not only knock the Bulldogs from the top spot but also probably put the Tide into the top four.

Granted, Alabama still has to beat Auburn and then win the SEC Championship Game, but past history certainly suggests a win over Mississippi State is likely. In addition to favorable series trends, the Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games as a home favorite.

Smart pick

The timing of this game is not great for the Bulldogs, but this is when you need to win in order to earn your way into national championship consideration. Losing a game now is far more devastating than earlier in the season, and Alabama knows that.

Fair or unfair, the Crimson Tide’s lone setback of the season at Ole Miss is all but forgotten, and beating Mississippi State is all that matters.

The Bulldogs are just 2-10 SU in their last 12 games as road underdogs, including 1-8 in their past nine. They have also dropped six of their last nine SEC road games, although two of the three wins during that stretch have taken place this season.

The bottom line is Alabama has been ramping up its schedule with tougher games lately while Mississippi State has not. That puts the Tide in perfect position to hand the Bulldogs their first loss and cover the spread.

Betting trends

• Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• The total has gone under in four of Alabama's last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.