Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Odds: Analysis and Prediction

The Michigan Wolverines once owned the rivalry with the Michigan State Spartans, winning six meetings in a row not too long ago. But Sparty has turned the tables, winning five of the last six meetings, going 6-0 against the spread. Michigan and Michigan State battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.

Point spread: Spartans opened as 15.5-point favorites at Spartan Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 44.3-26.3 Spartans

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverines snapped a three-game losing streak with a much-needed 18-13 victory over Penn State two weeks ago, then had last week off. Michigan outgained and outrushed the Nittany Lions and, most importantly, covered the spread as field-goal favorites.

Earlier this year, the Wolverines outgained and outrushed Notre Dame but committed four turnovers and lost 31-0. They also outgained and outrushed Utah but committed four turnovers and lost 26-10. Over their last two games, though, they've turned it over just once and gone 2-0 ATS.

Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

Since losing at Oregon back in September, the Spartans are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 ATS. Last week, Michigan State won at Indiana 56-17, cruising to the cover as a 16-point road favorite. The Spartans trailed early 17-14, then scored the last 42 points of the game.

Sparty outgained the Hoosiers 662-22—that's a 438-yard margin—and won time of possession by a 39-21 margin, although it should be pointed out that Indiana was without its starting quarterback. But that probably didn't matter much considering Michigan State had two guys rush for 100 yards while going 10-of-16 on third-down conversions.

The Spartans lead the Big Ten East at 3-0 and get Ohio State at home in two weeks, so they can probably smell another trip to the conference championship game.

Smart pick

Michigan State should be able to win the ground battle this week and in turn roll to a victory over their hated rival. And since the team that wins the game usually covers the spread, the smart money here resides with the Spartans.

Betting trends

• Michigan is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games.
• Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.